Not even Warner’s 2001 comments are immune from the translator

July 18, 2008

Sixteen seconds were more than enough for the then-would-be-Governor to slip into Warnerese.  Write Side goes to the videotape (well, sort of).  As usual, the English is bold and in italics:

I will finish the repeal of the car tax . . .

Oh, the car tax repeal will be finished, alright.  “Completed” is a whole different story . . .

. . . and Mark, I think I’ve counted - you’ve now said thirteen times that I’m going to raise taxes.

. . . and Mark, I think it’s been thirteen times you’ve made me lie to the voters.

You’ve got that one-trick pony; it’s just not going to work.

You ought to know by now that I’m a pro at lying through my teeth.  Do you really think I’m going to crack now?

The fact is, I will not raise taxes.

The fact is, I will say over and over again that I will not raise taxes until the rubes vote me in.

The rest, of course, is history.

Cross-posted to Bloggers 4 JimGilmore


Let them fail

July 15, 2008

The transportation special session had barely ended when the troubles of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began to dominate MSM reporting (oddly enough, bloggers have been largely quiet about it).  I mention that juxtaposition because it enabled a few things to come into focus and stark clarity, leading to one ominous, painful, yet inevitable conclusion: we must let these mortgage giants fail. That’s right: fail - as in declare bankruptcy, fall into receivership, have the assets unloaded, etc.

If one looks at several issues we face here in Virginia and elsewhere (traffic, environment, land-use, the ”popped” real estate bubble, inflation, etc.), one finds that much of it is driven by settlement patterns that Jim Bacon has been skewering for years (inflation is the obvious exception, I’ll get to that one later).  Oddly enough, Bacon et al seem to miss the biggest factor in leading to spread-too-thin settlements and all the problems they cause - government-driven, artificial inflation in the demand for property, and the two biggest culprits are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Fannie Mae began in 1938 as the Federal National Mortgage Association a New Deal government agency set up to provide loans to banks that they themselves could loan out to homeowners (David Fum, National Post).  Since these were government loans created from a policy deliberately designed to make homes “affordable,” the banks treated it like the free money it really was, and loaned it out like they were supposed to do.  Thus did the government begin artificially inflating property demand (to hear FDR fans tell it, the FNMA was just part of the great New Deal vision that rescued America from the Depression; more and more economists now understand that the rescue can be best attributed to World War II).

For thirty years, FNMA kept property demand artificially high (which likely had a lot to do with the first suburban wave of the post-World War II era), but by the 1960s, the program was doing its job so well that it was becoming a budgetary eyesore.  So the Johnson Administration decided to “privatize” it.

Why do I put it in quotes?  Because Johnson’s motives were hardly pure (Frum):

In 1968, the Johnson administration decided to privatize Fannie — not for any free-market reason, but because the federal government’s debt was rising fast, and the administration realized it could make the government’s accounts look better by moving Fannie Mae’s obligations off the books.

In other words, LBJ had no problem with the government continuing to underwrite the mortgage industry; he just didn’t want the accountants to notice.  So instead, he and the Congress of the time (Democrat-dominated, although I doubt the pre-Reagan GOP would have done much better) came up with a half-hearted scheme that moved FNMA cost off the government books but still gave it all the perks of a government agency (no real regulatory oversight, White House appointments to the the board of directors, and - here’s the kicker - Fannie Mae never had to pay taxes).  Making matters worse, the Congress and LBJ created a second such monster (the Federal Home Loan and Mortgage Loan Corporation, a.k.a. Freddie Mac) as “competition” for the new “private” Fannie Mae.

So now, there were two companies, both ostensibly private but with obvious government favors, government ties, and the implied government backing that came with them, artificially driving up property demand for forty years.

Until about ten years ago, that meant suburban stretched farther and farther out.  Then the campaign against “sprawl” went national.  Spurred largely by liberals at the national level and a politicalhodgepodge at the local level, the movement focused not on the demand for developed property, but the supply.  The result was a slew of zoning regulations, purchase of development rights programs, proffer demands - and, inevitably, a steep upward climb in home prices as demand lapped supply.

The final nail in the coffin came in the mortgage rush of the early 21st century.  We’ve all heard about folks signing up for mortgages they couldn’t afford, and lenders who ignored economic reality and let them sign.  How much attention, however, has been given to the government-sponsored corporations who continued to make it far easier and more profitable for lenders than any free-market would allow?  Even when Fannie Mae was caught inflating its own profits by $6 billion (roughly four times the size of Enron’s transgression), not a thought went to what this meant for the housing market.

Well, supposedly, we all know better now - except that no one is considering the one option that will ensure these mistakes are never repeated: letting these two behemoths fail.

For starters, the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will put a swift end to the nonsense of ”government-sponsored enterprises” (yes, that’s their name).  An organization can be a private firm or a government agency, but not both.

More importantly, all of the housing-based issues that we are facing today (everything I listed above except inflation), wold be consigned to history, because the demand for property will finally be restored to its natural level.  On the financial front, that removes the danger of future massive housingcorrections like the one we’ve seen recently - a correction that has placed so much pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low that the American economy is almost entirely disarmed from fighting inflation (unless Congress is willing to reduce overall demand pressure by cutting spending - yeah, I know, they’ll start with the Flying Pork Squad).  On the “quality of life” front, it means the inflated property demand that led to “sprawl” in the first place would vanish.

Now, I don’t expect our political leadership to have the courage to let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fall, especially not in an election year.  If these companies must survive, then they must become companies, forced to act like any other private firm with the same risks, obligations, costs, etc.  If the free market has a genuine place for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (and it probably does, but not to the tune of $5.3 trillion in mortgage debt holdings), then let them find and operate in that place.

The important thing is - get the government out of the real estate business, once and for all.


More Richmond Times-Disptach follies: Jeff Schapiro

July 15, 2008

Jeff Schapiro’s abysmal post-mortem on the special session didn’t surprise me; after all, I’m already on record calling for him to be fired.  Still, I was gratified to see Tim Watson (I’m Surrounded by Idiots) fillet the piece while I dealt with the Free Lance-Black Hole.

Among the many things Tim mentioned in his rebuttal post (and you really should read the whole thing):

Back to RT-D:

The House version was carried by Del. Phil Hamilton, R-Newport News, an inartful dodger carrying water for the big companies angling to run, for fun and profit, vast hunks of the Hampton Roads road-tunnel-and-bridge network.

As Christina Nuckols, of The Virginian-Pilot, reminded her readers: Those firms are represented by lobbyists who sit in the privy council of Speaker Bill Howell, ensuring Republicans receive only objective, dispassionate advice on what could prove a giant government giveaway.

Oh my God! Those evil “big companies”!

They have some nerve employing people and giving them a paycheck for work! Those saps that work for those evil “big companies” should just quit, get on welfare, and live off the government.

What’s even worst is that the companies hire people (lobbyists) to represent themselves to the legislature. Those bastards should be executed for using their First Amendment rights.

Remember that hating corporations is #82 on Stuff White People Like (RWL Note: maybe I need to pay more atttention to SWPL; he may be more perceptive than I thought).

 . . .

Does anyone notice that this reporter has time to go through and check out every little resolution that the General Assembly dealt with and proceeded to complain about the unimportance of them?

Did he write a story about the transportation bills that were dealt with? No, of course not; those aren’t important.

Is this not the very height of irony?

. . .

Second, while Jeff was tracking down every resolution the General Assembly dealt with, he missed the following:

The Republicans went from wanting (unconstitutional) regional taxes imposed on Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads to offering a no-tax solution: The Republican solution include appropriating money to NoVA and Hampton Roads from airport fees and taxes and port revenues to pay for the transports needs that are partly caused by the airports and port!

Where’s the story about Jeff Frederick’s bill that would give money to localities to pay for their own roads instead of giving money to the monstrosity that is VDOT (HB6025)? That bill didn’t even make it out of the House.

How about the bill that would implement the 2002 Governor’s Commission on Efficiency and Effectiveness that died in the House Rules Committee (HJ6061)?

How about the the great idea for the state to stop paying for roads in subdivisions (HB6041)? Why should I be paying for someone else’s subdivision roads that I and 99.99% of the state will never see or use?

How about the bill that would required an independent audit of the monstrosity-known-as-VDOT (HB6023)? The Senate refused to act on that bill.

RT-D had time to nitpick about every little resolution that was passed by the General Assembly, but couldn’t do their jobs and actually tell the people what did occur during the session.

A fine takedown of a sorry columnist for a once-elite newspaper that has devolved into an “elite” newspaper whose better days seem to be behind it.


Best line of the special session post-mortem

July 12, 2008

Write Side of my Brain takes the honor in response to this post on the rise in “General Government” spending in Virginia.  Here it is:

Maybe it’s time General Government was dishorably discharged.

Nicely done, Write Side.  Nicely done.


Blogburst for Harry’s Place

July 12, 2008

Many thanks to Rick Sincere for making the rest of us Virginia bloggers aware of this.  If you have a blog of your own (and even if you don’t, but especially if you do), please read on:

Harry’s Place, a UK blog dedicated to promoting the ideals of freedom and democracy, is being sued by Mohammed Sawalha, the President of the British Muslim Initiative, which has been linked to Hamas and the Islamic Brotherhood, both terrorist organizations. The blog reports that Mr. Sawalha, according to the BBC…

“master minded much of Hamas’ political and military strategy” and in London “is alleged to have directed funds, both for Hamas’ armed wing, and for spreading its missionary dawah”.

In their revelation of the impending lawsuit against them leveled by Mohammed Sawalha, they write:

Mr Sawalha claims that we have “chosen a malevolent interpretation of a meaningless word”. In fact, we did no more than translate a phrase which appeared in an Al Jazeera report of Mr Sawalha’s speech. When Al Jazeera changed that phrase from “Evil Jew” to “Jewish Lobby”, we reported that fact, along with the statement that it had been a typographical error.

Mr Sawalha has been the prime mover in a number of Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood associated projects. He is President of the British Muslim Initiative. He is the past President of the Muslim Association of Britain. He was the founder of IslamExpo, and is registered as the holder of the IslamExpo domain name. He is also a trustee of the Finsbury Park Mosque….

…Mr Sawalha says that the attribution of the phrase “Evil Jew” to him implies that he is “anti-semitic and hateful”. Notably, he does not take issue with our reporting of the revelation, made in a Panorama documentary in 2006, that he is a senior activist in the clerical fascist terrorist organisation, Hamas.

It looks like Harry’s Place is going up against some pretty top-notch lawyers on this one, and they’ve got guts, but as the post goes on to say:

If Mr Sawalha persists in attempting to silence us with this desperate legal suit, we will need your help.

We won’t be able to stand up to them alone.

This is why we’ve started this blogburst, to get the word out that we won’t let members of Hamas or any radical terrorist group censor us or any of our fellow bloggers.

If you’d like to add your site to the blogroll, simply email us at admin@neoconstant.com, and include your site’s URL.

Then copy and paste this entry into one of your posts. Future posts will be emailed to you. Thanks, and don’t forget to head over to Harry’s Place to show your support of their freedom of speech!

WE SUPPORT HARRY’S PLACE!


The House roll call votes on HB6055 are up

July 11, 2008

It took a while, but the initial vote on the no-tax substitute and the final passage are finally up on the LIS site.

This frst vote (on turning HB6055 from the tax-hike disaster into the no-tax-hike bill) was 52-42.  The “departure votes,” i.e., Delegates who did not vote with their party, were as follows:

Republican nos: Anne Crockett-Stark (6th: Bland, Giles, northern Wythe, and northern Pulaski)

Republicans not voting: Lacey Puntey (R leaning I-19th: northern Bedford Cnty., Bedford City, and Botetourt), Thomas Wright (61st: Amelia, Nottoway, Lunenberg, Mecklenberg, and southern Brunswick), and Bob Marshall (13th: Western Prince William and Loudoun)

Democratic yes: Paul Nichols (51st: northeast Prince William)

Democrats not-voting: Charles Caputo (67th: Western Fairfax and eastern Loudoun), Albert Eisenberg (47th: western Arlington), and Al Pollard (99th: King George, Westmoreland, Northumberland, Richmond, Lancaster, and northern Caroline).

Caputo, Eisenberg, Putney, and Wright didn’t vote on final passage either, leading me to believe they were absent (which also ensured no accidental change in party margins).  Marshall held off on the initial substitute because of questions about the regional authorities that were addressed by his amendments after this vote.  I’m not sure why Pollard chose not to vote.

The vote for final passage of the new and improved HB6055 was 51-45:

Republican nos: Crockett-Stark, Clifford Athey (18th: northern Fauquier, Warren, and southern Frederick), Beverly Sherwood (29th: northern Frederick and Winchester)

Republicans not voting: Puntey and Wright

Democratic yes: Johnny Joannou (79th: most of Portsmouth and slivers of Norfolk and Suffolk)

Democrats not-voting: Caputo and Eisenberg

I’m curious as to who got to Nichols between votes.  Joannou doesn’t surprise me; he’s never been a fan of tax increases.  In fact, I’m wondering why he didn’t vote yes the first time.

Athey and Sherwood switched as Nichols did between votes.  Given that they’re both from districts at the edge of northern Virginia, that may be a result of the airport revenue provisions, but honestly, I’m not sure.  I have no idea what Ann Crockett-Stark’s motives were.

If anyone is from these Delegates districts (or even near them) and can give an explanation as to their votes; please feel free to put them in the comments.  I’m really curious (and I’m guessing at least a few readers are, too).

Meanwhile, the Senate Finance Committee vote is still not up.


Tim Kaine doesn’t get it

July 10, 2008

Garren Shipley summed up the new reality in Richmond quite well:

In the end, the GOP settled on a funding mechanism that didn’t require a tax increase.

The measure was scuttled in the Senate, but in this instance, that’s immaterial. For the first time since the great tax fight of 2004, the GOP caucus held together in the face of pressure from a Senate and governor calling for tax increases.

While the policy implications of the GOP’s new-found unity are debatable, the political landscape appears to have changed markedly, at least from where I’m sitting.

The strategy pioneered by Democratic Gov. Mark Warner — peel off just enough Republicans to pass the bill, then let a disaffected base take it out on the party at the ballot box — didn’t work. Nor did regional divisions in the GOP lead to a bi-partisan tax increase.
 
Couple that with the unity in the Senate’s Republican ranks forged by their losses in November 2007, and the complexion of Capitol Square is different today, indeed.

We reached the similar conclusion during the Bearing Drift podcast.  The Republicans are no longer squabbling amongst themselves.  Just as importantly, they came up with a creative plan that not only doesn’t raise taxes but actually links transportation funding to transportation activity, while the Democrats insisted on tax increases or nothing.

Meanwhile, Governor Kaine continued to be stuck in the past - the glory days (for the Dems) when they could carve up the GOP at will (Richmond Times-Dispatch):

“I don’t think I’ve ever seen a group work so hard to do nothing,” he said. “It was a show about nothing, doing nothing taken to an art.”

. . .

The governor hinted that lawmakers who stand in the way of a deal will have a choice to make the next time around — whether they want the governor to offer them a ladder to climb out of the transportation mess, or a shovel to dig the state into a deeper financial hole when it comes to roads.

Perhaps the Governor didn’t notice Bill Bolling’s response, but unlike 2004, 2006, and even 2007, the GOP is eager to restart the discussion this time:

Fortunately, the General Assembly meets every year, and we will have another chance to address this issue in January.  It remains my hope that the members of the General Assembly will work to craft a transportation solution that relies on existing revenue sources and innovative transportation alternatives, not higher taxes.

This is no longer a battle between confident Democrats and defensive Republicans; it is one between confidence, creative, and united Republicans on one side and tax-hiking, backward-looking, and politically tone-deaf Democrats on the other.

The Democrats, from Governor Kaine on down, still don’t see this.  They’re in for a very rude shock come November 2009.  Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.


Yours truly on Bearing Drift’s Politics-on-Demand

July 10, 2008

The BD Crew (well, Brian, J.R., and Shaun) do a wrap-up on the special session and invite yours truly.


Post of the Day (well, so far)

July 10, 2008

Riley at VV reviews the transportation funding ideas that the Democrats shot down because they didn’t include tax increases (emphasis in original).

Senate Democrats wouldn’t even go for dedicating revenues generated from potential offshore drilling to transportation . . .

Senate Democrats voted against letting NoVA and Hampton Roads keep tax revenues generated by those regions’ major transportation hubs to pay for transportation projects in those regions . . .

Apparently they must not want to give up that revenue that they’d rather transfer to other parts of the state for other purposes. According to Del. Dave Englin (D-Alexandria):

In a Commonwealth, it’s perfectly appropriate for wealthier localities (i.e.: higher incomes and more economic activity) to subsidize poorer localities in the interest of the greater good (education, public safety, etc.)

No, I think that you are confusing “Commonwealth” with “communism,” Del. Englin…

Senate Democrats voted against locking up the transportation trust fund so it couldn’t be raided for other purposes . . .

Finally, Senate Democrats voted against external review of VDOT and making congestion relief a priority.

His coup de grace comes at the end:

Just whose side are Virginia Democrats on? Based upon these votes, they certainly aren’t on the side of Virginia’s drivers, commuters and businesses.

Nicely done.


We Won

July 10, 2008

Even as I write this post, I’m having a hard time believing it, but it’s true.  The special session is over (Washington Post), and no Virginian will see their taxes go up.  Even better, the House Republican leadership changed course at the eleventh hour and replaced their tax-hike-laden bill with an alternative that spared the people of Virginia from higher taxes and actually tied road funding in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads to the economic activity generated there.

So we got even more that my best hopes (a train wreck), we got the Democrats voting against a good bill.

So what happened?  Well, simply put, we happened.  Over the two weeks of recess in the special session, the activists cleared away the fog of last year and made themselves heard.  After years of hearing only MSM, Democrats in the executive branch, and some of their own weak-hearted contributors, the Richmond Republicans finally heard from us - and to their credit, they responded.

Odds are we’ll have to fight the same battles over the next sixteen months, so I want to make sure everyone who stepped up to the plate gets the proper accolades (because they’ll be needed again).

Delegate Bob Marshall: Say what you will, but it’s fairly clear Marshall’s near-win at the convention turned some heads.  I’m guessing his strength in Northern Virginia in particular (he won more then 60% of the Fairfax County delegation) made abundantly clear that the anger over HB3202 was real.  When HB6055 made the transformation from monstrosity to a damn good bill, it was Marshall who made sure of it by ensuring the elected General Assembly - not unelected regional authorities - would make the spending decisions, and nobody stood in his way.  More to the point, Marshall’s principled stand against tax increases brought together activists from around the state who demanded that last year’s debacle not be repeated.

Chairman Jeff Frederick: It seemed like the new Chairman had a bad case of the slows during much of the recess, but he turned on the jets with gusto at the end.  His appearance before the Washington Times editorial board made clear to every reader of that paper (which included at least every beleaguered Republican in Northern Virginia), that Howell et al were not speaking for the party when they peddled the original version of HB6055.  I would also submit he likely pushed the editors toward the scathing editorial they published yesterday.

The Prince William Board of Supervisors: The night before the session opens, the Republican-majority BOS (the only GOP-majority BOS in NoVa) unanimously condemned the old version of HB6055.  That had to be a wake-up call to the folks in Richmond.

The grass-roots activists: Last year, as HB3202 wormed its way through the legislature, the GOP activists were divided, confused, and in at least some quarters completely unaware of the danger.  This time, those of us who fought the lonely fight last year had plenty of company, from the First District GOP Committee to the Family Foundation to ATR.  Of course, the old veterans from last year (TQ, JAB, Jim Parmelee, etc.), were right there once again.

In the blogosphere: When HB3202 was first proposed, I had been a Virginia blogger for less than a month.  I knew a few of the players, but hardly all of them.  Yet when I went up against the windmill, I wasn’t alone.  The aforementioned Jim Bowden not only stood shoulder to shoulder with me, but I was able to use the episode to bend his ear, pick his brain, and get a better lay of the land (without which I would never have been able to do what I did this year, however little that was).  Chris Green and Greg L were also in the trenches last year and this.

This time, however, we had many other voices join us, including Crystal Clear ConservativeMason Conservative, Write Side of My Brain, SWAC Girl, Shaun Kenney, and Brandon Bell.  This turned our lonely voices into an ever rising chorus of anger and frustration at the House leadership for trying to saddle us with tax increases.  There wasn’t a region in the state where a Republican Delegate could not hear the voice of the low-tax majority asking them to reverse course and steer clear of tax increases.

This was such a near-run thing (as the Brits would say) that I honestly believe the outcome may have been different without one of the four components I listed above.  Together, we made our voices heard, and this time, Howell and company listened to us.

There will be other policy battles to fight - including and especially on this issue - in the months to come, but we won this fight.  For all of those who helped make it possible (and please, if I forgot somebody, put it in the comments for all to see): thank you, thank you, thank you.