What some die-hard Hillary bloggers are saying (UPDATED)

August 29, 2008

About three-and-a-half weeks ago, I got plugged into the larger world of national blogging.  A pro-Hillary blog (Texas Hill Country, to be exact) chose to link to one of my posts, which meant wider breadth of readership for me and - far more important to me - a new niche in the blogosphere for me to explore: the PUMA die-hard Hillary crowd.

I was particularly interested in the reaction to the nomination of Governor Palin.  Three in particular (Texas Hill Country, The Mountain Sage, and Not Your Sweetie) seemed quite pleased, although TMS noted that other Hillary backers had decidedly different reactions.

Now I won’t even begin to pretend I am well versed in the dynamics of this crew, but from the few I saw, I can say that we have nothing like this in the Virginia blogosphere - which, at the risk of offending my fellow bloggers, looks at lot more insular and parochial to me now than it did just last month.

To see what I mean, take a look at the Not Your Sweetie post again, particularly the graphic.

Let’s face it, none of us were that creative!

UPDATE: OK, I’ve taken a bit of a longer look (check out the PUMA blogroll from Ooh! Nuance! if you want to do it, too),  Reaction to Palin is very positive.  Some are even crossing over to McCain-Palin, and most are keeping the option open.  Now, it’s hard to translate the blogosphere into the rest of the country, but if this is any indication, McCain may have found the ultimate wedge.

Man, Bismark was no dummy.


Ken Cuccinelli on the next Vice President of the United States

August 29, 2008

From Virginia’s next AG:

“Governor Sarah Palin brings a strong conservative, pro-taxpayer and pro-life record to the Republican ticket. She is a reformer with results and her executive experience compliments John McCain’s military service.”

“Sarah Palin’s reforms in Alaska go hand-in-hand with John McCain’s maverick record in the U.S. Senate on cutting spending and reigning in the out of control federal budget. Governor Palin brings a record of executive leadership and reform that the democratic ticket completely lacks. Neither Obama nor Biden have a single shred of executive or military experience. The Harvard Law Review simply isn’t enough to qualify one for President of the United States .”

“Governor Palin also adds an obvious benefit that Senator Joe Biden can’t possibly provide, namely that she’s held jobs in the private sector sometime in the last 35 years.”

I particularly liked the last line.


The next Vice President speaks on the late Bridge to Nowhere

August 29, 2008

From Jim Geraghty:

When it came to that Bridge to Nowhere, I said ‘thanks, but no thanks.’ If we need a bridge, we’ll build it ourselves.

There, in that one statement, we have the one thing that was completely absent from the Democrats’ little show: self-reliance.  How often did you hear anyone say, “we’ll build it ourselves.”  Never.


How you know it’s a good day for McCain-Palin

August 29, 2008

Jim Geraghty heard (and relayed) this from CNN:

John Roberts: She has a child with Down’s Syndrome, and care for children like that can take a lot of time. Is there any concern about the balance of that?

Dana Bash: The McCain camp is probably wondering if she were a man, whether you would be asking the same question.

I’m sure the McCain campaign would say something like that, but when they can get MSM to do it for them - well, that’s a good day.


All you ever need to know about the next Vice President of the United States

August 29, 2008

She killed the Bridge to Nowhere (AFP).


Dems exposed as Chicken Little on the economy

August 28, 2008

“The fundamentals of our economy are strong.” - John McCain

The Democrats have been throwing that line back in McCain’s face from the moment he uttered it.  Indeed, nearly everyone did a double take when McCain said that during what conventional wisdom held to be our first recession in seven years.

Trouble is, the data never pointed to a recession.

Now, as the Audacity of Hype prepares to accept his nomination (and pound McCain for those words) the latest statistics show us that McCain actually had a point (Bureau of Economic Analysis, emphasis added):

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.9 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month.  In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 1.9 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3).

That means the economy this spring has grown at nearly twice the rate first thought just a month ago.

The Democrats can complain about the economy all they like, but if the spring numbers continue into summer and fall, the American people may wonder if they’re all in Tim Kaine’s parallel universe.

McCain was right on Iraq long before almost anyone else.  It’s looking like he was right on the economy, too.


The Warnerese-to-English translator dissects the DNC Keynote

August 26, 2008

Mark Warner gave the keynote address to the Democratic National Convention.  From most accounts, it was not the best speech.  More importantly, it was all in Warnerese, but that’s why we have the translator!

As always, the Warnerese (from CNN) in in normal type, and the English is bold and italicized.

My fellow Democrats. My fellow Americans. The most important contest of our generation has begun.

My fellow Democrats. My fellow Americans. The most important contest of our generation has begun, but let’s not talk about my Senate campaign.

Not the campaign for the presidency. Not the campaign for Congress. But the race for the future. And I believe from the bottom of my heart with the right vision, the right leadership and the energy and creativity of the American people, there is no nation that we can’t out hustle or out compete. And no American need be left out or left behind.

Actually, I will talk about my campaign, because it’s the race for my future.  And I believe from the bottom of my wallet that the right smile, the right lie, and the energy and creativity I showed in fudging the budget numbers in Virginia, there is no Republican who I can’t out-hustle or out-compete.  And no American need be left out from my snake oil.

Yes, the race for the future is on, and it won’t be won if only some Americans are in the running. It won’t be won with yesterday’s ideas and yesterday’s divisions. And it won’t be won with a president who is stuck in the past.

The race for my future is on, and it won’t be won by yesterday’s ideas.  In fact, it won’t be won on any ideas.  And it won’t be won with anyone who is stuck on past accomplishments, and since I have none, it’s all good.

We need a president who understands the world today, the future we seek and the change we need. We need Barack Obama as the next president of the United States.

We need a president who understands the world today, the future you seek and the change you need, so I can make my non-existent record look like something similar.  No one is better than I am at making non-existent records look good except Barack Obama.

Now, I have a unique perspective on this race for the future. Like many of you, I was the first in my family to graduate from college. It was made possible by supportive parents, good public schools and since my folks didn’t have the resources, thank goodness for the student loan program.

After I graduated law school, it didn’t take long to realize that America really wouldn’t miss me as a lawyer. So I started a business. My first company failed in six weeks. My next one was much more successful. It failed in six months.

I have a unique perspective on my race for the future.  Like many of you, I couldn’t make it in the private sector.  I failed as a lawyer and a businessman.  Then I became a political hack.  It was better than the lottery.

And then, a buddy of mine told me that there was this new idea. This thing called “car telephones” … “cell phones.” Friends told me, “Warner, you’re crazy. Get a real job. … No one’sgoing to want a phone in the car.” But I saw a different future. And with luck and a lot of hard work, I got in on the ground floor of the cell phone industry.

Then, my buddies in the Washington elite told me about the cell-phone spectrum licenses.  Thanks to political connections that no one else in America has (except plugged-in Democrats like us who have used it build fortunes on fleeced taxpayer money), I got in on the ground floor and made a killing.

There’s only one country in the world where I could have received that education, where I could have been given not just one chance or two but three, and where I could have succeeded. And that’s this country, the United States of America. At our best, it’s not your lineage or last name that matters. It’s not where you come from that counts; it’s where you want to go.

My connections would have made me rich in a lot of places, but there’s only one city in the world where I can hide all of that and pretend to be an entrepreneur - Washington, DC.  At our best, it’s not your lineage or last name that matters.  It’s that D in front of your first name.

In America, everyone should get a fair shot. Barack Obama understands this, because he’s lived it. And Barack Obama is running to restore that fair shot for every American. When we look around today, we see that for too many, Americans that fair shot is becoming more of a long shot.

In America, everyone should get a fair shot, but if they did, we wouldn’t be able to live so well.  Barack Obama understands this, because there’s no better training for living off other people’s money like the Chicago machine.  And Barack Obama is running to restore that for every Democrat in America.

How many kids have the grades to go to college but not the money? How many families thought their home would always be their safest investment? How many of our soldiers come back from their second or third tour of duty wondering if the education and health care benefits they were promised will actually be there?

How many Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae employees and board members thought their jobs were the safest gravy train in America?

Two wars, a warming planet, an energy policy that says let’s borrow money from China to buy oil from countries that don’t like us. How many people look at these things and wonder what the future holds for them? Their children? Their country? How many?

In George Bush and John McCain’s America, far too many.

Two wars, a planet that we know is warming even if the data don’t say so, and energy policy that - oh wait, never mind.  Where was I?

Let’s be fair, some of these challenges were inevitable. But all of them are more severe, more immediate and more threatening because of the misguided policies and outdated thinking of this administration.

Let’s be fair, none of us would have been able to do what Bush did on 9/11, or shown McCain’s resolve on Iraq, but they don’t have my smile, and between Barack and me we have enough dimple power to wow the rubes.

Folks always ask me, what’s my biggest criticism of President Bush? I’m sure you all have your own. Here’s mine: It’s not just the policy differences. It’s the fact that this president never tapped into our greatest resources: the character and resolve of the American people. He never really asked us to step up.

What’s my biggest criticism of President Bush.  Here’s mine: he never asked the American people to cough up their money for a huge tax increase.  I much prefer Republicans like John Chichester who swallowed my “tax reform” nonsense whole.

Think about it: After September 11, there had been a call from the president to get us off foreign oil, so we may no longer be funding the very terrorists who had just attacked us, every American would have said, “How can I do my part?” This administration failed to believe in what we can achieve as a nation, when all of us work together.

Think about it, after September 11, there had been a call for the president to get us off of foreign oil, and the President waited four years and came up with an energy plan that - oh, damn it, never mind.

John McCain promises more of the same. A plan that would explode the deficit and leave that to our kids. No real strategy to invest in our infrastructure. And he would continue spending $10 billion a month in Iraq. I don’t know about you, but that’s just not right. That’s four more years that we just can’t afford.

John McCain wants to end the earmarks that have made us rich for years and use the money to ensure victory in Iraq and tax relief for the American people.  I don’t know about you, but that’s waaaay to popular and effective.  That’s four more years we Democrats just can’t afford.

Barack Obama has a different vision and a different plan. Right now, at this critical moment in our history, we have one shot to get it right. And the status quo just won’t cut it. Now let me tell you, if you think you’ve seen dramatic changes in the world and in technology in last 10 years, you ain’t seen nothing yet. The race is on, and if you watched the Olympics, you know China’s going for the gold.

Barack Obamahas a different vision,  Right now, we have one shot to get this right.  My race is on, and - oh, I need another China reference.  Not that I’m going to actually do anything to stop the Chinese Communists, but if I mention them enough people will think I will.  The Clintons taught us that - am I allowed to mention them?

You know, America has never been afraid of the future, and we shouldn’t start now. If we choose the right path, every one of these challenges is also an opportunity. Look at energy. If we actually got ourselves off foreign oil, we can make our country safer. We’ll start to solve global warming. And with the right policies, within 24 months, we’ll be building 100 mile-per-gallon plug-in hybrid vehicles right here with American technology and American workers.

America has never been afraid of the future, unless we actually tell them what we’d do with it.  That’s why we keep losing.  So instead I promise that within two years we can have 100 mph hybrid vehicles made in America.  Don’t worry about fulfilling that.  I’ve been breaking promises for my entire career, and look what it got me!

Look at health care. If we bring down costs and cover everyone, not only will America be healthier, we’ll be more competitive in the global economy. Just think about this: In four months, we will have an administration that actually believes in science! And then we can again lead the world in live-saving and life-changing cures.

Look at health care; if we bring to America the socialized medicine I brought to Virginia, we can explain any tax increase we request for at least a generation.  We have to move quickly; the scientific advances in adult stem cell research won’t be enough in four months to expose our demand for killing embryos as unnecessarily cruel, but if we have to wait until 2012, we’re in deep trouble.

Think about education. If we recruit a new army of teachers and actually give our schools the resources to meet our highest standards, not only will every child in America be given that fair shot, the American economy will be given a shot in the arm. Whether they want to be an engineer or an electrician, every kid will be trained for the jobs of the 21st century.

Think about education; with legions of new teachers’ union members, we can bully governments from county courthouse to Capitol Hill for more money.  Maybe the kids will learn something, maybe not, but we’ll be set for life.

Or look at America’s standing in the world. If we rebuild our military and rebuild our alliances, we can rally the world to defeat terrorism and restore America’s leadership.

Look at America’s standing in the world.  No, check that, look at our standing in Europe.  We’re actually well-liked in Africa and Asia, and India actually likes President Bush.  Stick to France and Spain - they still hate America as much as we do!

Which candidate understands these opportunities, and which candidate knows we don’t have another four years to waste? Barack Obama. And Barack Obama also knows this, as well: We need leaders who see our common ground as sacred ground. We need leaders who will appeal to us not as Republicans or Democrats but first and foremost as Americans.

Who understands these opportunities for us over the next four years?  Me - and Barack Obama.  We need leaders who can turn RINOs into good liberals, and Barack made Jim Leach look like a bald Chichester, so he’s got it down pat.

You know, I spent 20 years in business. If you ran a company whose only strategy was to tear down the competition, it wouldn’t last very long. So why is this wisdom so hard to find in Washington?

You know, I spent 20 years hiding my career in politics, and it’s worked like a charm.

I know we’re at the Democratic Convention, but if an idea works, it really doesn’t matter whether it’s got a “D” or an “R” next to it. Because this election isn’t about liberal vs. conservative. It’s not about left vs. right. It’s about the future vs. the past.

I know we’re at ther Democratic convention, but without RINOs, we’re toast.  Because this election is about left vs. right, but with enough RINOs on board the rubes won’t get that.

In this election, at this moment in our history, we know what the problems are. We know that at this critical juncture, we only have one shot to get it right. And we know that these new times demand new thinking. We believe in success. We believe that everyone should have an opportunity to get ahead. And with success comes a responsibility to make sure that others can follow.

We know we have only one shot to get it right.  So even though we believe in failure, don’t admit it.  We believe no one should get ahead, but we need to lie about that, too.  And anyone who does get ahead needs to be taxed so high they never try something that foolish again.

I think we are blessed to be Americans. But with that blessing comes an obligation to our neighbors and to our common good. So you give every child the tools they need to succeed. That means quality schools, access to health care, safe neighborhoods. Not just because it’s the right thing to do — of course it is — but because if those kids do better, we all do better.

We need to talk about children all the time; the more we mention children, the nicer we look - and with any luck, no one will notice how many of them we’d allow to die until their born.  Well, in Barack’s case, after they’re born too - man, we better talk about children all the time!

It doesn’t really matter. You can be soft-hearted or hard-headed; both are going to lead you to the same place: We’re all in this together. That’s what this party believes. That’s what this nation believes. That’s what Barack Obama and Joe Biden believe.

We’re all in this together, and why not?  This is a hell of a good racket.  That’s what this party believes; that’s what Barack and I believe.

And we can do it. Sure, we can. When I became governor, this is what Virginia faced: a massive budget shortfall, an economy that wasn’t moving, gridlock in the capital. Does that sound familiar?

When I became governor, we had a budget that would never handle my massive spending hikes, an economy reeling from 9/11, and a capital riven by battles between real Republicans and RINOs.

So what did we do? Working together — a Democratic governor with a 2-to-1 Republican legislature and a whole lot of good folks who didn’t see themselves as Democrats or Republicans but as Virginians — we closed the budget gap, and Virginia was named the best-managed state in the nation.

We made record investments in education and in job training. We got 98 percent of eligible kids enrolled in our children’s health care program.

So what did I do?  I reeled the RINOs in like a prize fisherman, brought in socialized medicine to bust the budget, and off-loaded transportation funding to voters in NoVa and Hampton Roads.  When they balked, I just pretended that was my plan all along, and I looked like a budget cutter while the RINOs pushed my tax hike for me.

We delivered broadband to the most remote areas of our state, because in this global economy, if you can send a job to Bangalore, India, you sure as heck can send one to Danville, Virginia, and Flint, Michigan, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, and Peoria, Illinois. Because in a global economy, you should have to leave your hometown to find a world-class job.

You could send a job to Danville.  Please do.  I know I didn’t.

Let me tell you about a place called Lebanon: Lebanon, Virginia. Lebanon is in the coal fields of southwest Virginia. The population of that whole town could fit right here on the convention floor. Lebanon is like many small towns in America: It has seen the industries that sustained it downsized, outsourced or shut down.

Let me tell you about a place called Lebanon, Virginia.  Why?  Because it’s not Martinsville.

Now, some folks look at towns like Lebanon and say, “tough luck. In the global economy, you’ve lost.” But we believed that we couldn’t and shouldn’t give up on our small towns and expect the rest of the state to prosper. And that’s what brought me, toward the end of my term, to the high school gym in Lebanon. To announce that we were going to bring over 300 high-tech jobs. Jobs that paid twice the county average.

Yes sir, Lebanon was a real success - and no, I never heard of Martinsville.

One student told a reporter from the Washington Post that before this, he always thought he’d have to move away to raise a family and get a good job. I just heard from this young man, Michael Kisor. Today, he is a junior at Virginia Tech. His older brother just moved back home to Lebanon because there was an information technology job open for him that was just too good to pass up.

That’s a story worth rewriting all across America.

Lebanon is a story worth rewriting all across America.  Martinsville?  You sure that isn’t in that parallel universe Tim Kaine keeps at the Governor’s Mansion?

With the right leadership, we can, once again, achieve a standard of living that is improved, not diminished, in each generation. We can once again make America a beacon for science and technology and discovery. Ladies and gentlemen, we know how to do it. The American people are ready. And Barack Obama and Joe Biden will get it done.

With the right leadership, we can, once again, achieve a standard of living that is improved, not diminished, in each generation.  But you got Barack and me instead, so the rest of the country is out of luck.

As governor of Virginia, it was humbling to occupy a position that was once held by Thomas Jefferson. Almost as daunting as delivering the keynote speech four years after Barack Obama … or speaking before Hillary Clinton.

As Governor of Virginia, it was a challenge to pretend I was accomplishing anything.  Almost as daunting of Barack Obama’s smoke and mirrors on his record.  Oh, I can mention Hillary now?

Toward the end of his life, Thomas Jefferson — the founder of our party — wrote one of his frequent letters to his old rival, John Adams. He complained about the aches of getting old, but what was on his mind was what would life be like for the next generation of Americans. As Jefferson was ready to go to sleep, he closed his letter by writing, “I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past.”

Towards the end of his life, Thomas Jefferson wrote to John Adams.  He close the letter by writing, “I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past.”  I must not have been in those dreams, or he would have woken up in a cold sweat.

Jefferson got it right at the dawn of the 19th century, and it’s our challenge to get it right at the dawn of the 21st. This race is all about the future. That’s why we must elect Barack Obama as our next president. Because the race for the future will be won when old partisanship gives way to new ideas. When we put solutions over stalemates and when hope replaces fear.

This race is all about my future.  That’s why Virginia has to elect me as its next Senator.  Oh, and vote for Barack too, but if he loses, remember I was much, much nicer to him than Senator What’s-Her-Name.

Tonight, looking out at all of you, and with a deep faith in the character and resolve of the American people, I am more confident than ever that we will win that race and make the future ours.

Tonight, looking out at all of you, despite the character and resolve of the American people, I am more confident than ever that we can trick them all once more and make the future ours.

Thank you.

God bless you.

And God bless the United States of America.

Thank me.  God bless me.  And God bless the Democratic Party that has made our fortunes.

My work here is done.


More evidence of the McCain bounce

August 26, 2008

This afternoon, with one night of the Democratic Convention in the books, Gallup has John McCain in the lead for the first time in two and a half months (h/t Riley at VV).

It’s a two point gain, less than Rasmussen’s shift for McCain, but McCain was and is doing worse in Rasmussen (from deficit to tie) than Gallup (from tie to lead).


The bounce has begun - but it’s the wrong way

August 26, 2008

The first night for the Democrats is in the books, and the Rasmussen poll has revealed an immediate bounce - for McCain:

The Democratic National Convention has begun and the poll numbers are bouncing, but not in the direction that most people anticipated.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain also earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s still tied with Obama at 46% and McCain at 46%. Yesterday, with leaners, Obama had a three-point advantage over McCain . . .

Without leaners, Obama was ahead by four yesterday.  Today, it’s all gone.

Truth be told, it was a very unusual first day.  Obama’s campaign launched a full-court press against an ad highlighting his links to lefty terrorist Bill Ayers - which all but ensured his friendship with Ayers finally became news (Riley at VV).  Meanwhile, McCain used the first day to go on Jay Leno - easily the most public appearance in twenty years for a candidate during his opponent’s convention.

Compared to the outside events, the convention itself was a bit of a bore (note to the Republican Convention organizers - be prepared for the same thing to come your way during the first two nights).

Tonight, the Democrats akwardly showcase their 2012 talent (Mark Warner and Hillary Clinton).  Given Clinton’s disconnect with Obama, one would expect this night would be the worst of the four for Obama.

Then again, not even I thought Obama would dip after the first night.  Everything else has been a surprise, why wouldn’t Senator Clinton help Obama by accident?


The Democrats’ convention begins

August 25, 2008

As with everything else surrounding the 2008 presidential race, the Democratic convention begins in a confusing moment.  The pollster that has been usually most favorable to the Democrats (John Zogby) is the only one who puts John McCain in the lead.  Meanwhile, the pollster I trust most (Rasmussen), has Obama stretching out to a four-point edge (three with leaners), while Gallup (who uses registered and not likely voters, and thus has a bit of a bias toward the Democrats) has them dead even.

What will happen?  You expect me to know?

What I can do is try to dispel some of the convention myths out there.  For starters, George H.W. Bush did notwipe out a 17-point deficit during his 1998 1988 convention.  Mike Dukakis did move the spread up to seventeen after his convention, but that has already come back to single-digits before the GOP shindig began.  Likewise, Al Gore did not perform a similar feat in 2000, Bush the Younger also saw his 17-point edge largely dissipate before the Gore’s convention began.

In fact, most convention “bounces” tend to disappear within a few weeks.  There have only been two exceptions that I have seen in twenty years: Bush the Elder in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 1992.  In 1988, Bush built a six-point lead coming out of his convention and never lost it.  Clinton, meanwhile, benefited from the surprise withdrawal of Ross Perot right in the middle of the Democratic convention (his quasi-endorsement of Clinton didn’t hurt either) and used it to establish a twenty-plus-point edge that lasted until the GOP convention that year.  Contrary to popular myth, the GOP did get a bounce out of that convention - at least ten points worth - but it was only enough to cut into Clinton’s lead, not eliminate it.  By September, the deficit was back to fifteen points, and stayed there until the third debate.

As for Obama, I find it hard to believe his bounce will be last very long, and not because the GOP convention is right after it.  Obama is the kind of candidate who looks terrific, then gets progressively worse as time goes in.  The convention is a good chance for him to get that ol’ magic back, but when it’s not the first time, the half-life is much shorter.

The real question is the fate of Clinton supporters.  Will this convention bring them to Obama?  If so, Barack will get a nice bounce - say, 6-10 points (yes, I said 10).  If not, he’ll be lucky to get 5.

Weirdly enough, McCain may have the better shot at a long-term bounce than Obama; despite his long record as a politician and his obvious history as a POW, most Americans don’t know McCain personally.  While Obama’s life has been an open book for months (well, several, actually), McCain has been very guarded.  If voters find they can relate to him after his convention, he could zoom past Obama and into the lead when the debates begin.

There is only one certainty: the campaign will look very different two weeks from now - unless it doesn’t.