London Meteorological Office caught upping the temperature data – again

May 13, 2013

“The Met” – as it is known – didn’t bother to warn anyone that is had “updated” their temperature data for their HADCRUT4 and CRUTEM4 data sets, choosing instead to simply unleash them on the public.

The folks at WUWT couldn’t help but notice that the data “updated”….

…are concentrated in the last 16 years, a period that the Met Office is under scrutiny for the lack of warming in their data.

Also, some of the regional changes appear quite contrived, e.g. it looks like they found five hundredths of a degree of extra warming in the Northern Hemisphere in the last couple years.

South America they found almost a tenth of a degree of warming over the last decade;

Africa, had five hundredths of a degree of extra warming in the last few years;

and Australia/New Zealand a tenth of a degree of additional warming over the last few years.

I left out the accompanying graphs, you can find them here. The WUWT fellows also note how this is part of a pattern of “adjusting” recent temperature data upward.

For those who are keeping track (admittedly not easy given the numbers), we have now reached forty-four examples of data manipulation, errorsand other shenanigans from global warming alarmistsand that’s just from what I’ve been able to blog on this subject since Climategate broke in November of 2009, just under three and a half years ago. More to the point, they don’t seem capable of stopping.

In this case, however, it is especially important to remember that the “adjustments” come right smack in the period of the data that has given alarmists their worst headaches: the post-1996 temperature stability. It could very well be that the “solution” is to simply jack up the numbers to make the stability go away…


Marcott’s update to his global warming paper: never mind everything I said

April 2, 2013

Shaun Marcott – the latest fellow to claim he’s discovered “unprecedented” warming in recent years – made a stunning admission to Steve McIntyre over the weekend. Ross McKittrick has the details in the Financial Post:

Meanwhile, in a private email to McIntyre, Marcott made a surprising statement. In the paper, they had reported doing an alternate analysis of their proxy data that yielded a much smaller 20th-century uptick, but they said the difference was “probably not robust,” which implied that the uptick was insensitive to changes in methodology, and was therefore reliable. But in his email to McIntyre, Marcott said the reconstruction itself is not robust in the 20th century: a very different thing. When this became public, the Marcott team promised to clear matters up with an online FAQ.

It finally appeared over the weekend, and contains a remarkable admission: “[The] 20th-century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions.”

In other words, the most recent part of the data – the very part Marcott et al claimed “proved” the dramatic warming – was junk.

McKittrick also details how Marcott redated ice core tops (if that sounds like fudging data to you, that’s because it is) and grafted current temperature data (which can show variations annually at worst) on top of the past data reconstruction (which smoothed out centuries of variations).

For those who are keeping track (admittedly not easy given the numbers), we have now reached forty-three examples of data manipulation, errorsand other shenanigans from global warming alarmistsand that’s just from what I’ve been able to blog on this subject since Climategate broke in November of 2009, just under three and a half years ago.

I am amazed that anyone still believes this stuff.


Steve McIntyre sends another hockey stick alarmist to the penalty box

March 19, 2013

Steve McIntyre is the mathematician who destroyed Michael Mann’s “hockey stick” graph (which supposedly proved global warming) in the last decade. This year, he takes aim at the latest nonsense, from Marcott et al. On his blog (Climate Audit), he explains how the timing of  the data was manipulated – in one case, a dataset was moved over 1000 years - to get the desired effect.

For those who are keeping track (admittedly not easy given the numbers), we have now reached forty-two examples of data manipulation, errorsand other shenanigans from global warming alarmistsand that’s just from what I’ve been able to blog on this subject since Climategate broke in November of 2009, just under three and a half years ago.


FOIA (the Climategate whistleblower) reveals what caring about the poor really means

March 14, 2013

Watts Up With That found in his inbox the password to a slew of Climategate emails, courtesy of the anonymous whistleblower (who took the pseudonym Mr. FOIA).

Humor and political schadenfreude aside (well, almost – I particular like the part where “Reviewer B.” admits, “I don’t think we can say we didn’t do Mann et al because we think it is crap!”), FOIA explains his actions – and in so doing schools the lefties on what compassion for the impoverished really is (emphasis added):

That’s right; no conspiracy, no paid hackers, no Big Oil.  The Republicans didn’t plot this.  USA politics is alien to me, neither am I from the UK.  There is life outside the Anglo-American sphere.

If someone is still wondering why anyone would take these risks, or sees only a breach of privacy here, a few words…

The first glimpses I got behind the scenes did little to  garner my trust in the state of climate science — on the contrary.  I found myself in front of a choice that just might have a global impact.

Briefly put, when I had to balance the interests of my own safety, privacy\career of a few scientists, and the well-being of billions of people living in the coming several decades, the first two weren’t the decisive concern.

It was me or nobody, now or never.  Combination of several rather improbable prerequisites just wouldn’t occur again for anyone else in the foreseeable future.  The circus was about to arrive in Copenhagen.  Later on it could be too late.

Most would agree that climate science has already directed where humanity puts its capability, innovation, mental and material “might”.  The scale will grow ever grander in the coming decades if things go according to script.  We’re dealing with $trillions and potentially drastic influence on practically everyone.

Wealth of the surrounding society tends to draw the major brushstrokes of a newborn’s future life.  It makes a huge difference whether humanity uses its assets to achieve progress, or whether it strives to stop and reverse it, essentially sacrificing the less fortunate to the climate gods.

We can’t pour trillions in this massive hole-digging-and-filling-up endeavor and pretend it’s not away from something and someone else.

If the economy of a region, a country, a city, etc.  deteriorates, what happens among the poorest? Does that usually improve their prospects? No, they will take the hardest hit.  No amount of magical climate thinking can turn this one upside-down.

It’s easy for many of us in the western world to accept a tiny green inconvenience and then wallow in that righteous feeling, surrounded by our “clean” technology and energy that is only slightly more expensive if adequately subsidized.

Those millions and billions already struggling with malnutrition, sickness, violence, illiteracy, etc.  don’t have that luxury.  The price of “climate protection” with its cumulative and collateral effects is bound to destroy and debilitate in great numbers, for decades and generations.

Conversely, a “game-changer” could have a beneficial effect encompassing a similar scope.

If I had a chance to accomplish even a fraction of that, I’d have to try.  I couldn’t morally afford inaction.  Even if I risked everything, would never get personal compensation, and could probably never talk about it with anyone.

I took what I deemed the most defensible course of action, and would do it again (although with slight alterations — trying to publish something truthful on RealClimate was clearly too grandiose of a plan ;-) .

Even if I have it all wrong and these scientists had some good reason to mislead us (instead of making a strong case with real data) I think disseminating the truth is still the safest bet by far.

We may never know who this person is, but I think James Delingpole had it right in calling him “the man who saved the world”…

…unless Mr. FOIA is actually Ms. FOIA, of course. Either way, this is truly a heroic person.

Meanwhile, WUWT continues the fight by continuing to take apart the latest hockey-stick nonsense (Easterbrook and Eschenbach).


Another busted hockey stick

March 12, 2013

The latest attempt by the global warming alarmists to make the Medieval Warming Period disappear came into the crosshairs of Watts Up With That – and ended up looking a lot like the gel torsos on Deadliest Warrior.

First up is Don J. Easterbrook, who notices something about the data…

Eighty percent of the source data sites were marine, so temperatures from 80% of the data set used in this paper record ocean water temperatures, not atmospheric temperatures. Thus, they may reflect temperature changes from ocean upwelling, changes in ocean currents, or any one of a number of ocean variations not related to atmospheric climates. This in itself means that the Marcott et al. temperatures are not a reliable measure of changing atmospheric climate.

Making matters worse, one of the land datasets was a tree ring reconstruction from none other than Michael Mann himself (he of “Mike’s Nature Trick”). Keep in mind, Mann has already admitted to errors in his tree ring data.

Meanwhile, David Middleton reveals another problem with the data – time intervals. He graphically explains why using old data that measures by 140-years-plus along with new annual data can cause problems.

Back to the penalty box.


Will Michael Mann never learn?

March 3, 2013

The latest desperate attempt by global warming alarmists to seize the political initiative fell apart once again – due to exposure to the outside world.

Michael Mann, he of the Nature Trick, is trying to claim that the temperature models really haven’t been exposed as bunk after all. There are only two problems: he uses the wrong set of data, and he stops in 2005.

Steve MacIntyre has the details (Climate Audit or WUWT).

For those who are keeping track (admittedly not easy given the numbers), we have now reached forty-one examples of data manipulation,errorsand other shenanigans from global warming alarmistsand that’s just from what I’ve been able to blog on this subject sinceClimategate broke in November of 2009 just under three and a half years ago.

I am stunned that Mann really didn’t think he would get caught.


Everything you need to know about “global warming”

November 21, 2012

An excellent rundown of the myths and their debunkments from Friends of Science (via WUWT).

The only thing they missed was the past temperature data manipulation.

Cross-posted to Virginia Virtucon


Organized labor admits to ignoring Obama/Kaine War on Coal for “weeks”

September 28, 2012

Amidst the brouhaha over the labor bosses’ PAC “Worker’s Voice” ads ripping Allen in Northern Virginia, many of us in the rightosphere wondered why the union folks were suddenly ignoring the plight of their brothers and sisters in the United Mine Workers of America (UMWA) who are losing employment in heavy numbers in southwest Virginia due to President Obama and Tim Kaine’s determination to shut down coal production (Shaun Kenny at BD). Well, the folks at WV were good enough to answer, via Twitter:

@WorkersVoice: @bearingdrift sorry to burst your conspiracy bubble, but we’ve had these ads for weeks. Just waited for conventions to end to run them.

So…they’ve been ignoring the Obama/Kaine War on Coal “for weeks.”

I’m glad that’s been cleared up!

Cross-posted to Virginia Virtucon


NASA gets caught fudging the temperature record

September 27, 2012

Randall Hoven (American Thinker, h/t SDA) caught NASA “adjusting” past data again:

A funny thing happened on the way to determining how hot 2012 has been on a global basis: temperatures changed in 1880.

I knew NASA would occasionally update its estimates, even its historical estimates. I found that unsettling when I first heard about it. But I thought such re-estimates were rare, and transparent. There is absolutely no transparency here. If I had not kept a copy of the data taken off NASA’s web site two months ago, I would not have known it had changed. NASA does not make available previous versions of its temperature record (to my knowledge).

NASA does summarize its “updates to analysis,” but the last update it describes was in February. The data I looked at changed sometime after early July.

In short, the data that NASA makes available to the public, temperatures over the last 130 years, can change at any time, without warning and without explanation. Yes, the global temperature of January 1880 changed some time between July and September 2012.

Surprise of surprise, the change had the effect of making the long-term temperature record support conclusions of faster warming. The biggest changes were mostly pre-1963 temperatures; they were generally adjusted down. That would make the warming trend steeper, since post-1963 temperatures were adjusted slightly upward, on average. Generally, the older the data, the more adjustment.

C’mon, NASA, did you really think we wouldn’t notice?

For those who are keeping track (admittedly not easy given the numbers), we have now reached forty examples of data manipulation, errors, and other shenanigans from global warming alarmists, and that’s just from what I’ve been able to blog on this subject since Climategate broke in November of 2009 just under three years ago.

Keep this in mind the next time someone screams “hottest (day/week/month/year) on record.”

Cross-posted to Virginia Virtucon


The Big Lewandowski

September 6, 2012

Australian global warming alarmist Stephan Lewandowski decided he’d had enough of people challenging him with statistical analysis and data issues. So he is drafting a paper that concludes anyone who disagrees with him is crazy.

Unfortunately for him, statistical analysis and data issues have felled the report before it even made the rounds of the compliant MSM.

Among other things, it appears Lewandowski based the title of his report – the ever colorful “NASA faked the moon landing – therefore (climate) science is a hoax: An anatomy of the motivated rejection of science” – on the responses of ten people (WUWT). Making matters worse, it appears that there were at least two different versions of the survey, which is an absolute no-no (WUWT) – not to be confused with different answer paths within one survey, which is far from unusual, or segmented surveys for different population groups, which is OK so long as it’s strictly controlled. Finally, Lewandowski’s “survey” was conducted online, with no measures to prevent multiple answers from the same person.

In short, it’s a statistical disaster, and I’m being kind; it certainly looks like an attempt to skew towards a desired outcome.

For those who are keeping track (admittedly not easy given the numbers), we are now at a total of forty examples of data manipulation, errors, and other shenanigans from global warming alarmism, and that’s just from what I’ve been able to blog on this subject over the last two and a half years.

This one just deals with numerical fudging to slander opponents, rather than manipulating climate data itself, so it doesn’t count.

You can go back to obsessing about Charlotte now.

Cross-posted to Virginia Virtucon


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