The gory details on the tax hike “compromise” (UPDATED)

The numbers are out on the conference committee’s tax hike plan…and if anything, it’s worse than we thought.

For starters, the plan raises taxes by $682 million annually (once fully implemented) at the state level for transportation, and by another $135.5 million for other stuff. That’s over $817 million in tax hikes, just from Richmond alone.

Moreover, the plan also gives localities in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads the “option” of raising taxes by a total of $475-$550 million annually. UPDATE: The local tax hikes include a 1% sales tax, an increase in the grantor’s tax (that’s right, they’re taxing real estate sales as we’re still trying to recover from the housing slump), and a hotel occupancy tax (which will hit business travel).

I should note that just about every previous “local option” tax increase package has included the financial version of a gun to the head of localities to force them to enact them. I don’t have the language of the conference committee version, so I can’t say for certain if this one includes it, too. That said, odds are the localities will knuckle under, meaning the annual tax increase is likely to be roughly $1.3 billion annually.

Not even Grover Norquist thought it was that high at first.

Yet even that isn’t enough for folks like the Northern Virginia Transportation Alliance, whose leader is looking forward to “being able to build on this in the future” (Washington Post).

In fact, Virginia stands at a crossroads (especially Virginia Republicans). Do we simply shrug our shoulders and do what is easy (raise taxes with the premise that we can do it again)? Or do we recognize the economic damage that would be done by a tax increase, roll up our sleeves, and take a cold, long, hard look at the Virginia budget to determine what is not as high a priority as transportation (as well as determining within transportation what should be a state function and what shouldn’t)?

The House has this tax increase (known as HB2313) on their calendar today. There is still enough time to stop it, enough time for state leaders who have currently been silent – are you reading this, Mr. Cuccinelli? – to stand up for the taxpayer and make themselves heard. UPDATE: Ken has put out a confused statement approving of “localities…given more authority” but opposing tax increases. Given that the bill disguises the latter as the former, I’m not sure where Ken lands on this.

Quinnipiac confirms: backing a tax increase hurt Cuccinelli

I suspect that most of the discussion on the latest Quinnipiac Poll will be about the effect of Bill Bolling in the race as an independent. However, Quinnipiac had already included Bolling in its January 9 version of the poll. Bolling’s numbers did not change; he’s still at 13%.

What did change was Cuccinelli’s numbers: he dropped 3 points in voter preference (from 34% to 31%); his favorable rating fell 3 points (from 33% to 30%); and his job approval rating fell 7 points (from 48% to 41%), while his job disapproval rose 5 (from 27% to 32%)…

…and what did Cuccinelli do between January 9 and today? He backed Steve Newman’s tax increase.

I’m just sayin’….

Could the taxpayers be spared by a Richmond train wreck?

If what Steve Contorno (Washington Examiner) hears is correct, Democrats in the State Senate could be so wedded to Frank Wagner’s tax hike that they’ll refuse to support something too close to McDonnell’s tax hike, while Republicans who backed the latter may not like anything to close to the former:

“As long as the [final bill] resembles the Senate plan, we will have a transportation bill this year,” said Senate Minority Leader Dick Saslaw, D-Springfield. “If it varies too widely, we likely will not.”

…

Senate Democrats allowed $50 million a year to come from the general fund, but that came reluctantly. House Minority Leader David Toscano, D-Charlottesville, said it’s unlikely they’ll budge on that.

Those kinds of lines in the sand are already threatening a compromise as representatives from both parties begin to meet behind closed doors to find a solution that can pass both chambers.

“If we’re going to start ruling out things almost from the beginning,” said House Majority Leader Kirk Cox, R-Colonial Heights, “we’re going to have a lot of trouble getting there.”

The House version takes a lot more road money out of the general fund (pursuant to McDonnell’s tax hike).

My guess is the Republicans are so desperate for anything that they can claim well help “transportation” (remember, all three statewide Republican officeholders are backing different tax hikes) that they’ll agree to anything – meaning the Democrats can probably squeeze as much from the taxpayers as they wish.

Still, there may be some hope that political gridlock can leave the taxpayers unscathed.

Establishment and Outsiders: Part 4

This is the fourth part of my series on Establishment and Outsiders in the Republican Party of Virginia. The first two posts described the characteristics of the two. My third post presented Bill Bolling as an example if an Establishment Republican; for my Outsider example, I use Ken Cuccinelli.

I chose Cuccinelli for specific reasons, many dealing with what he is not. Cuccinelli is not more conservative than Bolling. In fact, they’re records on issues are nearly identical. They even have the same glaring error (to me), namely HB3202.

What makes Cuccinelli an Outsider, rather, is his demeanor and approach to politics. Cuccinelli is more confrontational than the typical politician, a trait which combines dynamic thinking and a sense if urgency that the more stability-oriented Establishment tends to downplay. He revels in being the underdog, and in his 2009 general election campaign, he stunned his complacent opponent by seizing the initiative and never letting go. Rather than rely on party networks, he established and grew his own.

Now, there are more than a few politicians who also fit that bill. What makes Cuccinelli more the archetype Outsider was his almost disastrous failure to try the Establishment role in his 2007 re-election campaign. While Bolling’s attempt to play against type as an insurgent running for Governor in 2007-8 was generally problematic, Cuccinelli’s attempt to play by the Establishment playbill was a barely mitigated fiasco. He nearly destroyed his credibility by voting for HB3202. His campaign tried the incumbency card – and flubbed badly. If not for an opponent nearly everyone acknowledges as subpar, he might have lost in 2007 and become a brief footnote in local political history.

As it was, he squeaked through, and never used the Establishment plan again. He was the first (and if memory serves, the only) elected Republican to back Bob Marshall in 2008; in his AG campaign next year he ran against an opponent right out of central casting, and beat him for the nomination. He played in the role he likes best – the underdog – against Steve Shannon, and turned a race that worried many Republicans into a rout.

By choosing to run for Governor, he will likely not run for re-election for anything until the 2020s. I doubt that is accidental.

In short, Cuccinelli is most comfortable going against the odds and shaking things up; he also has the success that keeps him on the good side (so far) of the line between dynamic and reckless.

Again, and I emphasize this once more because some BD commenters are having trouble processing this, Cuccinelli is not an Outsider because he is more conservative than Bolling (in fact, he’s not). This isn’t about principle or ideology. It is about attitude, method, and the nature of the man. That is what makes Cuccinelli an Outsider.

Cross-posted to Bearing Drift

Huh?

As we approach the Iowa caucuses like a runaway train, some things about the state of politics in Virginia have me confused.

To wit:

If the Virginia Republican primary petition process was so obviously rigged, why didn’t the fellow who is in every way but openly Bob McDonnell’s favorite (Rick Perry) make the ballot? Has the land of the Byrd machine fallen so far in fixing elections?

Is Bill Bolling’s staff trying to push me to Ken Cuccinelli? Do they realize how many people they’re pushing away from Romney with their combination of tone-deafness and smart-alleck remarks masquerading as a press release under the boss’ name?

On the other hand, if Bolling must suffer for his staff due to one press release, why can’t Paul suffer for multiple newsletters written by insert-scapegoat-here than went out under his name?

Speaking of Dr. Paul, of the two candidates who made the Virginia ballot, he is the only one who is on record in support of allowing the federal government to use its monopoly/monopsony power to influence price and services in the health care market – a position I consider far, far more dangerous than the individual mandate; he has openly supported reflating the housing bubble and creating moral hazard in the insurance market via tax-code chicanery; he refuses to support the Ryan Medicare reform; and he has called for maintaining the current sclerotic entitlement system for Americans as young as 26 (Weekly Standard) . . . and Mitt Romney is the “liberal” on the ballot?

Cross-posted to BD

Tax hike on business? HoD says yes, Bolling says no.

Norm @ TQ has the gory details on the House side:

Lastly, the Lt. Gov., Bill Bolling, has offered his thoughts on all the fees and in the process, we learn that the House baked-in a tax increase:

In his Executive Budget, Governor Kaine recommended making various changes to Virginia’s tax code to conform our state tax code to the federal tax code. As a result of these changes, certain taxes on manufacturers based in Virginia would increase by $60M.

Interestingly, the Senate removed this “manufacturer’s tax” increase from their budget, but the House accepted the Governor’s recommendation, which would, in effect, increase taxes on manufacturers by $60M.

Ah, the anti-tax label. So easy to apply, even easier to remove.

Indeed.

I must confess this hits a bit closer to home than it would for most.  Here in Spotsylvania, industrial land was the only class of property that rose in value during our most recent assessment.  Thus, amidst all the proposals for new tax rate (equalization is 83 cents, the county administrator wants 86, the Board advertised 88), any rate above the curren 62 will be a tax increase for them.  Now, there about to get another tax increase slapped on them – by nearly all of the very people who were supposed to prevent this.

That said, please note, “nearly.”  For Bill Bolling himself (the words Norm cited were from the LG’s column on the budget) takes a dim view of the idea:

I would also encourage the conferees to reject Governor Kaine’s proposals that would result in higher taxes for retailers and manufacturers. I believe that these proposals would also violate our promise to avoid general tax increases.

Nicely done, Mr. Bolling.  We can only hope your fellow Republicans in the House (and the Governor’s office) will listen to you.

McDonnell saves $80,000 on transition

Sure, the number is far too small to be anything but a symbol, but symbols matter, and this one shows an Administration that is very serious about our predicament (Richmond Times-Dispatch via Weekly Standard):

The grungy office space, used supplies and limited freshening of the official gubernatorial quarters paid off.

Gov. Bob McDonnell’s transition team has saved at least double its $40,000 goal during the switch from campaigning to governing.

Early estimates indicate McDonnell conserved about $80,000 of a $353,600 transition budget.

That’s a savings of over 20%, by the way.  Attorney General Cuccinelli save $40,000 himself, as did Lieutenant-Governor Bolling (although that was largely due to the fact that the would-be transition office wound down quickly due to his re-election).

Here’s how important the symbolism can be: when yours truly began the transition from Jersey-born Yankee to, um, regional refugee (yeah, that works), it was just after Doug Wilder had taken office.  I heard complaints about Wilder’s transition and inauguration spending for months afterward, even as he heroically stared down his own party on spending and refused to raise taxes.

By contrast, McDonnell has shown voters he’s serious about cutting spending, including his own when necessary.  That will go a long way to winnning support for getting us through this budget cycles without a tax increase.

Cross-posted to VV

A genuine surprise out of Richmond

Truth be told, “surprise” doesn’t come close to describing what happened in the Virginia Senate Committee on Commerce & Labor.

SB 417, what I like to call the Virginia Health Care Personal Liberty Law, actually passed the committee on an 8-7 vote.  Two Democrats had to crossover to pass the bill: to everyone’s shock (according to Norm at TQ) – certainly to mine – Senators Colgan and Puckett actually did.

Next up is the Senate floor.  If Colgan and Puckett hold to their vote, that means a 20-20 tie the Lieutenant-Governor Bolling can break.

In other words, the Health Care Personal Liberty Law may actually be enacted!

PPP: McDonnell up 15 (UPDATE: Survey USA has GOP landslide sweep, too)

A week is a lifetime in politics, but Creigh Deeds may need a couple of Resident Evil films to pull this one out.

Public Policy Polling affirms what the rest of the polling world has been saying: Bob McDonnell’s lead has been growing (from 12 points to 15).

Interestingly, the largest lead is still held by Ken Cuccinelli (who stands at +16); Bill Bolling stands at +12.

The best region for the GOP (by area code) is 540, i.e., north-central Virginia for the most part.  That certainly makes me smile.

UPDATE: Survey USA has the margins at 17, 14, and 16, respectively.  Jason @ BD has the details.

Survey USA internals showing the Dems are doing what they need to do – and are still getting waxed

The more one looks at the Survey USA bombshell poll, the worse things look for the Democrats.

Here are the big numbers:

Governor: McDonnell 59, Deeds 40

Lieutenant Governor: Bolling 56, Wagner 42

Attorney General: Cuccinelli 56, Shannon 41

Now for the real painful info (for the Dems): since the last Survey USA poll (two weeks ago), the electorate has become less Republican (+1 from +5), more Obama-friendly (McCain +1 from +8), poorer, darker (75% white from 78%, 16% A-A from 15%), and  flipped from pro-life to pro-choice.

Yet all three Republican candidates improved on their previous performance.

In other words, for every Democrat Deeds is rousing to get to the polls, he and his ticketmates are losing two independents (McDonnell’s margin among independents is 44 points).

Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling (the North Carolinians with a heavily Dem client base) is previewing its poll for tomorrow:

We’re looking at a McCain +6 electorate this year in a state that was Obama +6 last year. There’s no path to victory if that stays true through election day. We’ll see how much good the visits from Obama, Bill Clinton, and other leading national Democrats do in the last few weeks but there is a lot of ground to make up (emphasis added).

Not sure if PPP will have a gap this wide, but it’s pretty clear Deeds’ “closing in” days have been closed out.