The state of the Republican nomination contest seems to be headed toward two realities: Romney will likely be the nominee, and Ron Paul will have enough delegates to be an irritant at the convention. The question that flows from these projections is this: how can Mitt Romney keep Ron Paul onside in the general election? Based on what I’ve seen, that might be a lot easier than folks realize.
To understand why Romney and Paul are closer to rapprochement than they appear, we have to look at the four key pieces of the puzzle: foreign affairs, economic issues, social issues, and personalities.
Foreign affairs: Contrary to popular belief, Romney and Paul are not that far apart. The American military deployment in Iraq has already ended, and the withdrawal fom Afghanistan was predestined not by Paul, Romney, or Obama, but Hamid Karzai, who wants our troops out yesterday (this is also why I have refused to hit Obama too hard for this). Oddly enough, Romney can probably score points with Paul by asking for a faster withdrawal than the President has planned. Paul and Romney’s biggest differences are Iran and Communist China, but if Romney stresses aiding dissidents (as in the Reagan Doctrine) plus a quicker Afghanistan withdrawal, it could do the trick.
Social issues: Romney and Paul are probably closer to each other on these than to anyone else running. Romney would probably prefer that most (if not all) social issues disappear, and Paul doesn’t think the federal government should have a role in them anyway. The only matter in which either would dramatically alter the status quo would be regarding judicial appointments, a matter I’ve already addressed here. In short, this is the area of least disagreement.
Economic Issues: This is something else entirely, of course, but more importantly, it is where Paul has the most leverage. On economic policy, Paul speaks for much more of the party than Romney does and he knows it. Odds are Paul will focus more on monetary issues; that said, if the Fed decides to pull a QE3, Paul may be one of the milder critics of the Fed descending upon Romney.
Personalities: Thinking of the above paragraph, I’m reminded of the line from Hoffa: “A grievance can be resolved; differences can be resolved. But an imaginary hurt? A slight? That motherf**ker’s gonna hate you ’til the day you die.” For three of the four opponents to Mitt Romney, this race has gotten personal. Ron Paul is not one of those three. In fact, on the issue that has affected Romney personally the most (Bain Capital), Paul has defended Romney, not attacked him.
Moreover, unless I miss my guess, Dr. Paul and his supporters have focused much of their ammunition towards Romney’s other opponents, not Romney himself. It is almost as if Paul has presumed Romney will be the nominee, and is looking for the best deal with him that he can get. This should neither upset nor demoralize his supporters; Paul is playing a long game. As the Libertarian nominee for President in 1988, he has seen how weak a cause outside the two parties can be; so he’s looking to build the cause within the Republican Party, then perhaps hand it over to his son, Senator Rand Paul.
If I’m right about this, then Ron Paul will be far more helpful to Mitt Romney than anyone realizes. We shall see.
