Initial Thoughts on the Bolling-Cuccinelli race

Well, having made my decision in re the U.S. Senate, I considered making an endorsement in the presidential nomination; but I’m just not comfortable making a decision yet. So instead, I’ll give a high-level view (admittedly completely from the outside) on the 2013 GOP nomination battle for Governor – as it now stands.

Assuming the two candidates in the running – Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli – will be the only candidates on the GOP side (and I wouldn’t take it as a 100% certainty yet), it looks like a race that will come down to style more than substance. Here’s why.

Very little distances either man on issues: In the State Senate, both Cuccinelli and Bolling established low-tax, low-spending, and culturally conservative records. They even made the same mistake (backing the Howell version of HB3202), and walked it back during the critical but now nrealy-forgotten 2008 special session. We may see some dramatic magnification of miniscule differences, but I doubt it will be enough for any neutral (of which I am one) to go one way or the other.

So it comes down to their styles as candidates, which makes things even more complicated.

As candidates, Bolling and Cuccinelli have very different skill sets. This is the political version of apples and oranges. Bolling is steady, predictable, and affable; all excellent qualities in a candidate running on a good record in an electorate generally favorable to him. Cuccinelli, by contrast, is dynamic, originial, kinetic, and on occasion hyperactive. Many more voters would be comfortable with Bolling than Cuccinelli (good for voter breadth). Cuccinelli forces voters to think, takes risks that could be game changers, and never backs down from a challenge, thus appealing to voters who are more focused and engaged (good for voter depth). To make things even more complex, each man’s traits could be strengths or weaknesses depending upon the political climate – and that means the political climate could be the one thing that determines which one would be the better candidate.

In Virginia, the political climate tends to be driven by who’s in the White House. So, in reality, we really won’t have a clue as to who would be better in 2013 until November 7, 2012 (all the more reason I will remain neutral until at least that time).

If Obama is re-elected, odds are the climate in Virginia will be favorable to the GOP. The party in the White House hasn’t won the Governor’s race in Virginia since 1973. Republican voters will be motivated, Democrats less so, and Independents will be looking for balance against the White House. In this environment – to borrow a football analogy – you go for ball control; for those of you who don’t follow football and prefer the “steady pair of hands” metaphor – well, there you go. In short, a re-elected Obama favors the GOP in 2013, and Bolling is the better candidate for “protecting a lead.”

On the other hand, if the Republican nominee is elected President, the party will face headwinds in 2013. Neither Romney, Gingrich, nor Santorum (I consider them the only candidates with a shot at the nomination – and Santorum’s is very slim) will have much of a presidential honeymoon. More likely, the GOP – which will almost certainly hold the House and flip the Senate if it wins the White House – will face crises in budgeting at home, in war and peace in the Middle East, and in financial problems in Europe. Republicans will be exhausted, Democrats motivated; Independents will look to balance Republican Washington by sending Democrats to Richmond. The Republicans will need a dynamic game-changer who forces voters out of their comfort zone and makes them think – it’s the only chance to upend the momentum against them; that makes Cuccinelli the better choice.

For all we know, the AG came to that conclusion himself.

Now, there are certainly other factors that could – and will – determine the nominations and the elections, but the biggest one – by far – will be the White House occupant on January 20, 2013. Until we know who that is, we’ll never really know which accomplished conservative would be best to carry the Republican banner in Virginia roughly ten months later.

Cross-posted to Virginia Virtucon