And they wonder why Staten Island generally prefers Republicans

July 30, 2010

Congressman Mike McMahon (D-Staten Island) has found a new issue to level against his lead Republican opponent (Mike Grimm) – or, to be precise, a very old and ugly issue (New York Observer via From On High, emphasis added):

. . . in an effort to show that Grimm lacks support among voters in the district, which covers Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn, the McMahon campaign compiled a list of Jewish donors to Grimm and provided it to The Politicker.The file, labeled “Grimm Jewish Money Q2,” for the second quarter fundraising period, shows a list of over 80 names, a half-dozen of which in fact do hail from Staten Island, and a handful of others that list Brooklyn as home.

“Where is Grimm’s money coming from,” said Jennifer Nelson, McMahon’s campaign spokeman. “There is a lot of Jewish money, a lot of money from people in Florida and Manhattan, retirees.”

Politico notes that Ms. Nelson has since been fired.  That sounds great, except that according to Nelson, the list was actually composed by campaign finance director Debra Solomon (“She herself is Jewish so she knows a lot of people in that community” - yup, Nelson really said that).

So while Nelson’s firing sounds great, it doesn’t remove the dark cloud from McMahon’s campaign.  Nor should it.

Most have presumed that McMahon – being a Democrat in New York City – was in fine shape this year.  I’m not so sure.  McMahon owes his election to a nasty scandal surrounding his Republican predecessor, Vito Fosella.  Prior to 2008, the GOP had held the Staten Island Congressional seat for 28 years.  Republicans have won six straight elections for Borough President there.  Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg have carried the island three times apiece.

Oh, and John McCain beat Barack Obama by 4 points in the district.

Now there’s this.

If McMahon wasn’t in trouble before, he certainly is now.

Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

Cross-posted to VV


“Freedom flotilla” falls flat with Turkish voters

July 29, 2010

It’s been nearly two months since the Gaza “freedom flotilla” captivated and divided the world.  Now, for the first time, we have an idea of what the Turkish electorate thinks – and for the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), the answer is not good.

Amidst the discussion of Turkey becoming the newest jihadist haven (and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan becoming the next jihadist leader), yours truly noticed that Erdogan’s AKP was in political trouble.  What was not known was the effect of the flotilla fallout.

Well, now we know.  Sonar Aristrima conducts monthly polls on Turkey.  Angus Reid and Bloomberg reported on its July figures.  Compared to May (before the flotilla raid), the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has gained a point, while the AKP is flat.  Among other things, this put’s CHP’s lead outside the margin of error.

Meanwhile, the third place Nationalist Movement Party/Nationalist Action Party (MHP) easily clears the 10% threshold needed to remain in Parilament – meaning the CHP and MHP can still block the AKP from returning to power.

Bloomberg has some other details which are none too promising for the AKP:

Erdogan received the lowest rating for trust of any Turkish leader or government branch listed in the poll, at 33 percent. The most trustworthy was the armed forces, with 78 percent. The poll also shows 46 percent of respondents had a negative outlook on the economy.

According to the poll, 77 percent said unemployment was the country’s most important problem.

I reiterate two things I said last time: the election is a year away, and the CHP, while secular, is a left-wing party that will give Washington some headaches.  Still, two months after Erdogan was basking in the glow of an international spin campaign par excellence, the people who actually determine if he’ll keep his job are as unhappy with him now as they were then.

The rest of us need to keep that in mind.

Cross-posted to BD


CRU is at it again

July 29, 2010

One would think that after the numerous findings and reports of data fudging and other shenanigans (since this past November, I have been posting on the slew of errors, data manipulation, and other shenanigans that have been plagued cliamte change alarmism; including today’s post, we are now up to thirty-one of them), the fplks at East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit would know better than this (Steve Goddard at WUWT):

HadCrut released their January 1850 through June 2010 temperature data yesterday, and something “interesting” happened. Their temperature anomalies from January-April jumped up from their published values on June 3.

 . . .

HadCrut still shows 1998 hotter than 2010 so far, but they seem to be working on “correcting” that problem.

Why is it that post facto adjustments always seem to be upwards in later years, and downwards in earlier years? This whole global temperature business looks like a complete joke to me.

Did they really think we wouldn’t notice?

Cross-posted to VV


Hold-the-what? A walk down memory lane

July 28, 2010

Today we take a look at some local political history here in Spotsylvania.

One of the things I discovered in my campaign for the Board of Supervisors last year was the rather dubious record the county regarding taxes.  In fact, the county has experienced sixteen property tax increases in twenty-two years (1988-2010).  Now, truth be told, the county has so many recent residents (escaping even higher-tax jurisdictions), that this history hasn’t been highlighted much.  Moreover, a number of the tax increases have come during reassessment years, where the tax rate was reduced, but not nearly enough to counteract assessment increases – and even when assessments fell (as they did this year), the tax rate rose by more than what would have equalized taxes.

This latter reason has, as one would expect, sparked quite the debate here.  Many (including some Supervisors) have convinced themselves that the equalization concept (i.e., if the tax rate leads to a higher average tax payment, it’s a tax increase no matter what the rate is) is some recent creation of right-wing, anti-tax crazies trying to hamstring local government.  So, I thought it best to take a walk down memory lane to see . . .

  • How the tax rate was treated during reassessment years?
  • What was done with taxes prior to 1988?
  • When was the last time property taxes were actually reduced in Spotsylvania?

The first question led me to the 1982 reassessment, in which property values rose 30% in the county.  Keep in mind, this is 1982, long before the Republican Party elected any Supervisors in Spotsylvania (although Buford Carr was rumored to be one back in the day), let alone allegedly hijacked the tax rate discussion.

Yet what do we find as the headline for the budget story in the Free Lance-Star (emphasis added) . . .

Spotsylvania sets hold-the-line tax rate of 65 cents

Cutting the budget to avoid raising the average tax bill, the Spotsylvania Board of Supervisors last night approved a $28.7 million operating budget for 1982-83 that drops the real estate tax rate to 65 cents . . .

Hold-the-what?

As an added irony, none other than Emmitt Marshall (who in recent years has tried to wave off the equalization idea) made the initial motion for the 65 cent rate (county staff had proposed 68 cents).  So clearly, the idea that assessments can make a rate “cut” an actual increase has a long tradition in Spotsylvania.

Meanwhile, I found that, somewhat surprisingly given the nature of the spending debate, that even though the 1970s and 1980s had faster growth in population than the later decades (from 1970 to 1990, population grew over 350%, compared to 212% for 1990-2010), they also saw fewer tax hikes (seven versus fourteen).  Lest we forget, this is also despite the 1970s having two double-digit inflation spikes.

But what about a tax cut?  Well, after looking at Board meeting minutes and a slew of FLS stories (the archives going back 80+ years are on-line now), we find that the last genuine act of tax relief for Spotsylvania homeowners came in June of 1975.  Since then, we’ve had nineteen property tax hikes (and six presidents, nine governors, four sheriffs . . .)

Oh, and the overall budget has grown over 3600% in nominal terms since then (890% in real terms).

Cross-posted to VV


Way to go Bob Marshall (and Chris Beer)

July 27, 2010

After I bang on against the manufacturer’s tax hike that was snuck into the Virginia budget, Delegate Bob Marshall proposes a constitutional amendment to prevent that sort of thing, cites that very tax as his justification . . .

. . . and I miss it.

Self-fail.

Thankfully, Chris Beer (Mason Conservative) did not.  He slaps up Marshall’s missive (excerpted here):

Barack Obama is now facing Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli in federal court because my HB 10, the “Healthcare Freedom Act,” passed in Virginia this year.  Its purpose is to protect you from having to buy Obama approved “backroom deal” health insurance policies or face jail and heavy fines.

But today I am writing to you because similar tactics were used to slip almost $130 million in new fees and business tax credit cuts into Virginia’s budget at the last minute with little discussion or visibility.

. . .

The Virginia Manufacturers Association called the tax credit elimination a business income tax increase and said cutting the business tax credit would cost Virginia companies $105 million in profits by 2014, and 6,400 jobs in the next two years.

My 19 years in the Virginia General Assembly tell me that the $130 million this year will double and triple next year and the year after unless you and I, “we the people,” say no!

. . .

I’m drawing a line right here against allowing Washington tax extortion tactics to continue in Richmond.  But I need help from you and other Virginians to pass a permanent fix to stop Richmond lawmakers from slipping fee and tax increases into the budget.  

The only remedy is to pass a Constitutional Amendment in the 2011 Assembly session barring this practice.  Here is my “Taxpayer Protection Constitutional Amendment,” H. J. R. 496 which I introduced today, July 19.

“Any law that appropriates funds shall not contain any provision that imposes, continues, increases, or revives any tax, fee, or fine, nor shall any such law contain any provision that reduces or eliminates any credit, deduction, or exemption associated with any tax, fee, or fine.” 

Virginia citizens need this Amendment to block secret tax hikes from passing as part of the Virginia Budget.  No other legal means can prevent this.

Nicely done, Bob (and Chris).  Nicely done.

Cross-posted to VV


The data cannot be questioned . . . because it doesn’t exist

July 27, 2010

Steve Goddard details (and debunks) another piece of the anthropogenic global warming facade – temperature “smoothing” at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (WUWT, emphasis added):

The GISS map below shows the geographic details of how they believe the planet has warmed. It uses 1200 km smoothing, a technique which allows them to generate data where they have none – based on the idea that temperatures don’t vary much over 1200 km. It seems “reasonable enough” to use the Monaco weather forecast to make picnic plans in Birmingham, England. Similarly we could assume that the weather and climate in Portland, Oregon can be inferred from that of Death Valley.

For those of us on the eastern time zone, think Cleveland and Savannah, GA.  They certainly have the same temperature all the time, right?

Among other things Goddard discovers . . .

  • The closest temperature station to the North Pole is over 500 miles away; most are over 600 miles distant
  • Even using a 250km “smoothing” technique, almost all of Africa, nearly all of the Arctic Circle, and most of South America have no measurable temperature data
  • A Brazilian “hot spot” is literally created out of thin air

I’d also note that there are data-less swaths over Siberia, which is all the more interesting given the earlier reports of Russian data being ignored (for those interested, here are other posts I have written detailing the errors, data manipulation, and other shenanigans that have been just the last eight monthsIncluding today’s post, we are now up to thirty of them).

As Goddard himself puts it, “Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.”

Cross-posted to VV


There she goes again

July 21, 2010

In her desperate attempt to be relevant, Krystal Ball continues to embarrass herself.

Her latest faux pas comes in a mailer that claimed Congressman Rob Wittman “voted for a plan that would have gutted Medicare, forcing seniors to buy higher cost insurance.”  She cites a vote on “HJR85, 2009.”

There’s only one problem: there was no H J Res 85 in 2009. One can only assume Krystal was referring to H Con Res 85, the Democrats’ FY10 budget resolution.

Now, even if one assumes the nonsense that voting on budget resolutions means anything (the president neither signs nor vetoes them, so they have no force of law), let’s take a look at the vote where Medicare is discussed – namely the vote for a substitute budget resolution from Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI), known as Substitute Number 4.  It includes a provision (Section 301-a-2) that calls for Medicare coverage to be gradually replaced with . . .

a premium support payment–equivalent to 100 percent of the cost of the Medicare benefit–to purchase health coverage from a menu of Medicare-approved plans, similar to options available to Members of Congress

In other words, no one would pay a cent more under the Ryan plan than under current law.  If that wasn’t enough, try the sentence right before it: “Preserves the current Medicare program for individuals 55 and older” (emphasis added).  In other words, no senior would see any change to their Medicare, no matter what Krystal Ball says.

There was, however, one other change in Ryan’s substitute that would be of importance to Ms. Ball.  As noted in the amendment purpose . . .

The amendment also seeks to provide $5 billion over the President’s budget for Defense; (and) $540 million over the President’s budget for Veterans

So if Krystal opposed Ryan’s amendment, then ipso facto she also opposed over $5.5 billion in new funds for our military and veterans.  One could even say Krystal Ball is “against our veterans and men and women in uniform.”

Cross-posted to VV


PPP buries its own lede

July 20, 2010

So, after watching Harry Reid and his cronies slam Sharon Angle every which way but loose, Public Policy Polling surveyed the damage, and set the tone with a blogpost highlighting Angle’s horrible performance among moderate Nevadans.  Never mind that “moderates” (unlike independents) usually skew toward the Democrats; the die was cast; the story written: Angle was toast.  Even Dan Foster fell for it at NRO - The Corner.

Hours later, PPP announced the actual voter preference numbers – and Angle was statistically tied.  Oops.

The fact is, if Reid can’t get a substantial lead after the month he’s had (and to be fair, other polls say he has), he never will.  If anything, this poll is a testament to Reid’s underlying weakness, not his strength.

It would have been nice if PPP noticed that, rather than spin their own numbers for the guy who happens to have the same party registration as nearly all of their clients.

Cross-posted to VV


Keynesian “multiplier”? Try divider.

July 20, 2010

One of the mathematical lodestars of macroeconomics is the “multiplier.”  As I have told eager (and not-so-eager) students for many a moon now, the multiplier is a part of Keynesian theory that says, essentially, that $1 in government spending can lead to $3, $4, or even $5 in economic growth (depending upon consumption rates); tax cuts have a similar, though slightly smaller, effect. 

Nothing has been more corrosive to the cause of limited government and fiscal sanity than the “multiplier.”  It has minimized much of the consequences of deficit spending and debt build-up, while at the same time providing a bias in favor of the larger-government option (spending) over the theoretically smaller-government one (tax cuts). 

Several economic schools of thought (the Austrians, monetarists, neo-classicals, and the rational-expectations crew among them) have responded by insisting any multiplication is countered by the loss of investment or consumption due to excess government borrowing (known as the “crowding-out” effect), largely to no avail in the political world.

That may change in the next few years.  For the first time that I can remember, economists are beginning to take a long, hard look at the effects of government spending on the economy to calculate (as best as can be done) the multiplier. 

The International Monetary Fund came up with . . . 0.7 (John B. Taylor, Wall Street Pit), and the European Central Bank (which looked at the EU) settled on . . . (0.5).

In other words, the effect of government spending in the economy did not multiply; in fact, it didn’t even increase; it eroded.

The importance of this cannot be underestimated.  In effect, government spending does not have a greater impact on the economy than letting the consumers and business spend the money on their own (one could even argue a lesser impact).  Questions about government spending, how to balance budgets (i.e., cut spending or raise taxes), etc., without the ”multiplier” bias, can no longer be answer simply by whatever increases government spending.

In other words, the critics of Keynesianism were right – so much so that “New Keynesianism” now acknowledges the strong possibility of “multipliers” that, being below 1, could actually be called “dividers.”  Just at the moment when Barack Obama is trying to build a social democracy, the economic-theory foundations that make it politically possible continue to crumble under his feet.

Cross-posted to BD


Top Secret Denebia

July 20, 2010

The Washington Post began a three-part series on “Top Secret America,” their detailed examination of the massive federal intelligence apparatus that has arisen as a result of the 9/11/01 attacks.  Yesterday morning was Part One, a description (as best as possible) the size of the intelligence community, the numerous agencies that are a part of it, and how they have combined to create massive bureaucratic balkanization, far too much information for anyone or any group of ones to process properly, and a constant demand for “more” to fix the problem caused by too much in the first place.  Interestingly enough, there was almost no discussion on what something of this size could do to American liberty – largely because by the time one finishes the piece, it isn’t clear that our intelligence community can do much of anything.

First up, though, one reassurance: it’s abundantly clear that nothing of vital importance to our security was compromised here (the Weekly Standard had Gabriel Schonfeld check that out), although given the main points gleaned from the WaPo piece, even if something was sent out that shouldn’t have been, it may take this crew weeks to figure it out:

Some 1,271 government organizations and 1,931 private companies work on programs related to counterterrorism, homeland security and intelligence in about 10,000 locations across the United States.

. . .

Many security and intelligence agencies do the same work, creating redundancy and waste. For example, 51 federal organizations and military commands, operating in 15 U.S. cities, track the flow of money to and from terrorist networks.

 Analysts who make sense of documents and conversations obtained by foreign and domestic spying share their judgment by publishing 50,000 intelligence reports each year – a volume so large that many are routinely ignored.

That’s just two pages in (out of 16).  Further along, Lt. Gen. John Vines (ret.), who “once commanded 145,000 troops in Iraq” had this to say, “The complexity of this system defies description.”

The WaPo then goes on to show how the intelligence balkanization played a role in the Fort Hood shootings and the Christmas Day almost-bombing.  Some concern about the bureaucratic nature of hewing to conventional wisdom and “low hanging fruit” is thrown in for good measure.

Reassuring it is not.

There are a few things missing from the piece – namely historical context.  However, the context would not have mitigated the impact, but amplified it.

In fact, the history of American intelligence is not only wrought with bureaucratic wars, balkanized offices, and counterproductive infighting; it was designed that way.  One of the eye-opening revelations (for me, anyhow, in 1992) in Curt Gentry’s J. Edgar Hoover: The Man and His Secrets was the motivation behind Harry S Truman’s resurrection of the World War II-era OSS as the new Central Intelligence Agency.  Truman created the CIA to prevent Hoover’s FBI from dominating the American intelligence community.  It only worked too well: Hoover and numerous CIA directors were at each others’ political throats for a quarter-century, and his death did nothing to slow down the bureaucratic bloodletting.

The other shocker (for me, at least in 1996) came from Jay Winik’s On the Brink - a history of the Reagan Adminstration’s foreign policy.  One chapter centers around a CIA analyst who had uncovered a late 1970s bombshell – numerous and conclusive pieces of evidence showing Soviet cheating on arms control agreements.  However, his CIA boss’s – following conventional wisdom, the wishes of the Carter Administration, and the bureaucratic impulses of their leaders and the State Department, hounded him out of the Agency and accused him of espionage.

The lessons learned was this: the intelligence community could suffer the same maladies as any other permanent bureaucracy – paper-pushing over performance, crushing internal dissent over confronting the enemy, and office power plays over operational success.

As bad as that is, the politics of 9/11 made things infinitely worse.  One would expect the Bush Administration to push hard for the resources it felt was needed to defend America.  However, the Democrats – eager to present themselves as tough without alienating their left-wing base – found a new way to thread the needle: i.e., redefining the war as one “fought” by law enforcement and intelligence.  Thus, no one had the political incentive to take a hard look at the massive intelligence apparatus and wonder if there was any duplications or inefficiencies.

So, they were allowed to fester until the WaPo came calling.

Schonfeld thinks the paper’s headline was overblown, presenting the idea of the massive intelligence community as some kind of secret government.  That would, however, imply (1) a much higher level of secrecy than the Post presents, and (2-something Schonfeld didn’t discuss) a far more efficient manner of doing things.

As it is, we have is a massively inefficient bureaucracy that just happened to have its problems shielded from view for far too long – long enough to become the closest thing to the mythical Denebian Clusterf**k.  We can only hope that the WaPo inspires the Administration to shake up the whole thing so we can get a less expensive, more efficient, and more effective intelligence apparatus.  We need it now more than ever.

Cross-posted (under a different title) to BD


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