This Sunday, Iraq will hold its second free Parliamentary election since its liberation from Saddam Hussein. On one level, that the election will take place at all is, as Jonah Goldberg (NRO) notes, a triumph for the United States.
However, the real turning point won’t be the election itself, but who wins.
Four years ago, in the aftermath of the 2005 elections, the unwieldy United Iraqi Alliance seemed poised for a split between it’s Iran-tainted and native wings. The Samarra mosque bombing froze the wings in place, but since then, the Shiite split has commenced (and not in an expected way), while the Anbar Awakening has thoroughly reoriented Sunni politics.
As such, there are appear to be four main “blocs” that are competing for seats and power. Unless I seriously miss my guess, none will be able to form a government on their own. Here’s my quick take on them.
National Iraqi Alliance: Formerly the UIA, this was the leading Shiite group from the 2005 elections, and the one with the heaviest Iranian influence. The big Iran-linked parties (SIIC and Sadrists) are part of this group. This time, they have felt compelled to find some Anbar Sunnis for their ticket (the Tribes of Iraq); they also have the largely anti-Iranian Fadhilla. Despite this, of the four groups, I’d say this is the most troublesome. If the NIA has a major role in governing, then so does Iran.
The State of Law Coalition: This is Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s group. I have been very critical of Maliki in the past, but he took a big risk splitting off from the UIA/NIA and going off on his own. More dramatically, he has brought in the Anbar Salvation National Front (the main heir to the Awakening) into his coalition.
Iraqiya: This is the most secular group in the bunch. It’s led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who has been the most determinedly non-religious Shiite leader since the fall of Saddam. He has a coalition that looked impressive and broad-based before the Awakening reshuffled the Sunni deck.
Kurdistan List: This is the joint coalition of the two old Kurdish parties (PUK and KDP). They got a tremendous scare from the Movement for Change in Kurdish regional elections, meaning they could suffer badly on Sunday – and be more amenable to swallowing hard for government patronage.
Unless said Movement dramatically reorients the Kurdish contingent in Parliament (and it’s a possibility), odds are two of these four parties – at least – will establish a governing coalition. IMHO, the best would be Iraqiya and State of Law, but so long as the NIA/UIA is on the outside, it’s a defeat for the mulllahs Iran, which means a victory for the rest of us.
It also means the danger of the President’s withdrawal plans fall dramatically, but that’s for another post – after the vote.
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