. . . cleverly disguised as good news.
The news in question is the PPP poll of Virginia 5. Outwardly, it looks good for Hurt, he is dead even with incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello despite 70% of voters having no opinion of him (Hurt, that is).
The trouble starts when the other Republicans are mentioned. None of them have the name recognition Hurt does (such as it is), but all of them are within 10 points of Perriello. In short, Tom Perriello is likely to lose to any Republican - meaning Hurt’s biggest claims to fame – electability and recognition – are worth zilch.
Then things really get bad. PPP also asked a threew-way-race question (Perriello, Hurt, and Virgil Goode – yes, that Virgil Goode) and found Hurt running a distant third (12%), with Goode and Perriello tied at 41%.
The translation is simple: so long as the Republicans can hold together behind one candidate, they can win. If not, they’ll lose.
The question then becomes this: which Republican is most likely to hold the anti-Democrat coalition together in the 5th (i.e., keep Goode out of the race)? The answer is clearly not the fellow who voted for both Warner’s tax increase and the dreaded HB3202.
Spot on, D.J. This is bad news for Hurt, and perhaps worse news for anyone further downticket.
Add to it the fact that most of these candidates are loaning their campaigns the $$$ to make a go of things, the 19% of voters (read: activist base) who will vote third party against Hurt regardless, and this is a tough, tough ballgame.
See — I told people Perriello would be a tough nut to crack.
Perriello is indeed a tough nut to crack.
but maybe this isn’t as bad for Hurt as you might think. He isn’t even able to campaign all day long like the others (because he is in Session). He has raised the most money from people other than a candidate. Plus, he has one helluva campaign team.
the 3d party candidate thing: might happen. even if it does, the 3d party candidate won’t poll 19%. when people get to choose between Perriello, who voted for cap ‘n trade & obamacare, or someone who can actually beat Perriello, they’ll stick with the candidate who has the best shot.
Can someone explain to me how Hurt isn’t conservative enough despite being a life-long Republican, but Virgil Goode, who was a Democrat for most of his life, is?
C’mon, Tim. You normally don’t fall for the Republican-for-Republican’s sake line.
Regardless, the issue was which candidate can avoid a 3rd-party candidate splitting the center-right vote, and Hurt is the most unlikely on that score because of his tax-hiking record (which, to me, means he’s not conservative enough; you know how I am on taxes).
If your wacky speculation had merit, then we could run a pink rabbit against Perriello and win. As for Goode, there’s no way he would stab his old pal Hurt in the back after the years they’ve spent campaigning together and holding fund-raisers. It’s hard to read this stuff from you quasi-conservatives who want to have it all. You guys better realize that you need a proven vote-getter and money-raiser or you’ll wind up reelecting Perriello.
Virgil Goode isn’t conservative at all. From what I’ve read on him, didn’t he support a $9,600,000,000 bailout for tobacco farmers?
Again, that’s not my point, Tim. My point is, who can keep the center-right vote from splitting? Hurt isn’t it. Whether or not Goode is it, well, that’s an entirely different dicsussion.
Since when did we pick candidates based, exclusively, on polling?
There’s all this talk about how bad Hurt is, but no one seems that Goode is just as bad, if not worse (and that’s my position on Goode since he rants about a “North American Union” and “In Muhammad We Trust”).
So, why would anyone support him, even if the results of *one* poll shows him ahead?
No, we pick candidates based on their record, and Hurt doesn’t cut it, in my view. Again, this is *not* about backing Goode. It’s about my beilef the party needs to nominate someone *besides* hurt out there.
Frank,
Sorry it took so long to OK your comment. Somehow it slipped through the cracks. Mea culpa.
Just like most moderates, you’re missing my point, which is this: unless you have a true, anti-tax-hike, limited government conservative running, you’ll lose. Here in Eastern VA, this is now an accepted fact (thanks to the Kilgore and HB3202 election debacles). This poll tells me that’s true in the 5th District too (which surprised me a bit, but there we are).
Simply put, I do not believe Hurt can win.
let me tell you what will hurt any Republican candidate in the 5th: if McD changes the composite index on school funding, the state spends $29 million MORE dollars; southern/southside Virginia schools lose alot of money & C-Ville schools get crushed.
Perriello will be able to calmly say “look what Republican leadership does for the poor fragile children.”
@ Timothy Watson – The 9.6 Billion Dollars that tobacco farmers and tobacco quota holders got comes from the tobacco manufacturers, such as Philip Morris, RJR, etc. and not from United States taxpayers. This was no tax payer Bailout. It is helpful to know the facts of the tobacco legislation before making incorrect comments.