Well, so much for that set of “plans”

Creigh Deeds’ effort to terrify the Virginia electorate into voting for him not only fell flat, it has also sucked the air out of the down-ticket races (I could have sworn somebody predicted that).

Here’s Survey USA‘s latest (survey taken fully after the WaPo began tilting at the windmill):

The Latest From Virginia: Governor’s Race, No Change. Lieutenant Governor’s Race, No Change. Attorney General’s Race, No Change. In statewide elections in Virginia today, two months until votes are counted, Republicans sweep, taking the statehouse away from the Democrats and holding the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General offices, according to SurveyUSA polling for WDBJ-TV Roanoke and WJLA-TV Washington DC.

For Governor, Republican Bob McDonnell appears undamaged and today defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds (RWL Note: the numbers are not initially mentioned, but McD leads 54%-42%). Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released five weeks ago, the race has tightened slightly, not dramatically. There is movement to Deeds in the Washington DC suburbs, where a 15-point McDonnell lead has evaporated, but there is no GOP erosion in the rest of the state. There is softening in McDonnell’s support among voters age 50+, but that is offset by gains for McDonnell among voters age 35 to 49. Of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and who are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in November 2009, 13% cross-over for McDonnell, twice the number of McCain voters who cross-over for Deeds.

For Lieutenant Governor, Incumbent Republican Bill Bolling is today elected to a second term, defeating Democrat Jody Wagner, former Treasurer of VA and VA Secretary of Finance, 52% to 42%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 5 weeks ago, the contest is largely unchanged. There is movement to the Democrat in Southeast and Northeast VA and offsetting movement to the Republican in Central VA.

For Attorney General, Republican state senator Ken Cuccinelli today defeats Democrat state representative Steve Shannon 54% to 41%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll five weeks ago, the race is unchanged. There is movement to the Republican among women, offsetting movement to the Democrat among men. Both men represent adjoining districts in Fairfax County. Cuccinelli is at or above 50% in every region of the state.

Whoops!  Sorry Creigh.  I guess voters figured out it hasn’t been 1989 in twenty years.

H/t JR at Bearing Drift

Rasmussen poll: McDonnell at 51%

The latest Rasmussen poll on the Virginia race has come out.  I made most of my thoughts known on VV.

One thing to add: during the WaPo‘s last attempt to defeat a statewide Republican candidate (George Allen, 2006), the effect on Democrats down-ballot was palpable.  Despite the Democrats scoring the highest popular vote percentage for Congress in twenty-four years, the Republican incumbents went eight-for-eight in Virginia in 2006.  Hardly encouraging for Democrats running for Delegate or local offices.

If the Congressional election were held today . . .

. . . it would come as a surprise to a lot of people.

That said, according to Rasmussen, it would also lead to a change in control of the House.

Yes, you read that right.

Rasmussen put the Congressional generic ballot at GOP-43, Dem-36.  That’s a sixteen-point shift from the 2008 election (although all of it is from a drop on the Dem side).

Well, I took a look at the 2008 results, district by district.  Now certain districts will respond more readily to a national shift than others, of course, but if the 16-point movement was distributed evenly among all 435 districts, the result would be a Republican gain of 41 seats and a GOP majority of three.

Of course, that would be if the election were held today.  It won’t be held for fourteen months.  What will be held in two months are the elections in New Jersey and Virginia (the latter of which, for obvious reasons, is of great importance to yours truly).  We’ll see if the cratering of the Democrats nationally has an effect in those states soon enough.

The strongest Republican so far is – Ken Cuccinelli?

One of the biggest concerns surrounding Ken Cuccinelli was his supposed weakness as a general election candidate.  Democrats were salivating over Ken’s nomination, in the belief that they could wax him in November and, perhaps, drag the entire statewide GOP ticket down with them.  Numerous Republicans (yours truly not being one of them) had the same feeling.

Well, the latest Public Policy Polling poll shows something very different:  while Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling saw their leads halved, Cuccinelli is still up 13 points.

Now, before the Democrats get too excited about the Gov and LTG races, it should be noted that the Party ID breakdown (38-D, 31-R, 31-I) was slightly better for the Dems than the 2008 electorate (39-33, with 27-I, CNN), yet McDonnell and Bolling still lead.  Meanwhile, the Hampton Roads and Southside areas were particularly weak for the GOP relative to the rest of the state.  Particularly in Southside, the Democrats shouldn’t expect a repeat of that on Election Day.

Finally, while the 2008 preferences in the poll skewed toward McCain (although I expect much of the “don’t remember” 5% are ex-Obama voters), the 2005 preferences show a pro-Kaine split that was double the actual result that year, yet once again, all three Republicans were in the lead.

Still, I would humbly submit the real story of the poll is Cuccinelli.  He was the top Republican with Obama voters (the only one in double digits), Kaine voters, liberals, women, Democrats, and African-Americans.

Meanwhile, he led all candidates of either party among Hispanics, voters under 30 (!), and the 703 area code.

Granted, the “crosstabs” have large margins of error, especially with an overall sample of only 596.  Still, conventional wisdom said Ken Cuccinelli would be a “drag” on McDonnell and Bolling; turned out conventional wisdom was wrong, again.

So how bad a political prognosticator am I?

Roughly three and a half weeks ago, I said this:

July was easily the worst month of his very young presidency, and arguably the worst month of his political career. August will be better . . . Rasmussen and Quinnipac have the president’s approval rating at 50%; expect it to reach 56% in a week or two and stay there for the rest of the month (polls like Gallup, which have the president in the mid-50’s will likely top 60% before cresting).

Well, August has come to an end, and Gallup has the president at 51%, while Rasmussen has him at a record-low 45%.  In fact, by Rasmussen’s numbers, “In August, President Obama’s full-month ratings fell below 50% for the first time.”

So I must now confess that I have no idea what will happen in September.  The end of the town halls could help Obama – or the return of Congress to “work” could hurt him.  The unemployment numbers (due Friday) could, if they rise as expected, damage him politically, but I thought the UE rate’s slight fall last month would help him, and we see how that turned out.

Meanwhile, Corzine is stopping the bleeding in New Jersey, but down-ticket Democrats are in even deeper trouble, while Virginia is watching the two parties argue on what year it is (the Dems says it’s 1989, while the GOP is fairly certain it’s 2009).

What does it all mean for this month?  What does it all mean for November?  What does it all mean for 2010?

More to the point, based on the above, are you sure you want me to answer that?