. . . it would come as a surprise to a lot of people.
That said, according to Rasmussen, it would also lead to a change in control of the House.
Yes, you read that right.
Rasmussen put the Congressional generic ballot at GOP-43, Dem-36. That’s a sixteen-point shift from the 2008 election (although all of it is from a drop on the Dem side).
Well, I took a look at the 2008 results, district by district. Now certain districts will respond more readily to a national shift than others, of course, but if the 16-point movement was distributed evenly among all 435 districts, the result would be a Republican gain of 41 seats and a GOP majority of three.
Of course, that would be if the election were held today. It won’t be held for fourteen months. What will be held in two months are the elections in New Jersey and Virginia (the latter of which, for obvious reasons, is of great importance to yours truly). We’ll see if the cratering of the Democrats nationally has an effect in those states soon enough.
You can’t really judge a national generic ballot as that accurate of a finding. Congressional races are very local, so sampling the national electorate on a generic sample just won’t do. Also, incumbents will generally have more cash flowing in to dump into their races (both Republicans and Democrats).