The strongest Republican so far is – Ken Cuccinelli?

One of the biggest concerns surrounding Ken Cuccinelli was his supposed weakness as a general election candidate.  Democrats were salivating over Ken’s nomination, in the belief that they could wax him in November and, perhaps, drag the entire statewide GOP ticket down with them.  Numerous Republicans (yours truly not being one of them) had the same feeling.

Well, the latest Public Policy Polling poll shows something very different:  while Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling saw their leads halved, Cuccinelli is still up 13 points.

Now, before the Democrats get too excited about the Gov and LTG races, it should be noted that the Party ID breakdown (38-D, 31-R, 31-I) was slightly better for the Dems than the 2008 electorate (39-33, with 27-I, CNN), yet McDonnell and Bolling still lead.  Meanwhile, the Hampton Roads and Southside areas were particularly weak for the GOP relative to the rest of the state.  Particularly in Southside, the Democrats shouldn’t expect a repeat of that on Election Day.

Finally, while the 2008 preferences in the poll skewed toward McCain (although I expect much of the “don’t remember” 5% are ex-Obama voters), the 2005 preferences show a pro-Kaine split that was double the actual result that year, yet once again, all three Republicans were in the lead.

Still, I would humbly submit the real story of the poll is Cuccinelli.  He was the top Republican with Obama voters (the only one in double digits), Kaine voters, liberals, women, Democrats, and African-Americans.

Meanwhile, he led all candidates of either party among Hispanics, voters under 30 (!), and the 703 area code.

Granted, the “crosstabs” have large margins of error, especially with an overall sample of only 596.  Still, conventional wisdom said Ken Cuccinelli would be a “drag” on McDonnell and Bolling; turned out conventional wisdom was wrong, again.

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