Dem polling firm puts GOP ticket ahead in Virginia (UPDATED AND BUMPED):

Public Policy Polling – a polling group that caters heavily to Democrats for clients – has a new poll on Virginia.

The good news: Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds 49-43.  To quote PPP head Dean Debman (via Riley at VV): “Several polls conducted immediately after the primary had shown Deeds moving into the lead but it appears his bounce has worn off” (emphasis added).  PPP tries to show some silver lining for Deeds.

There is some good news for Deeds in the results. He currently leads just 68-16 among African Americans but Democrats often under poll in that demographic this far out from an election and end up doing better at the ballot box. Also, there are more undecided Democrats than Republicans, giving him room to grow.

There’s just one problem: McDonnell is already at 49%; he doesn’t need to “grow” much to put this away.  Moreover, while 16% of the African-American vote may seem high for a Republican, it’s the norm for Republicans in Virginia (Allen and Gilmore hit 17% in their races for Governor – 1993 and 1997, respectively).

Better news: Despite going through a nearly year-long convention battle, Ken Cuccinelli leads Steve Shannon by seven points (45%-38%).  PPP gave no details on that, though.

Not sure what this means: Lieutenant-Governor Bill Bolling leads Jody Wagner 46% to 40%. Normally, an incumbent needs to be at 50% to feel good about his or her chances. However, an incumbent who is number-two on his own ticket is very rare. A number of LGs run on joint-tickets with the nominee above (i.e., like the President and Vice President, or the New Jersey Guv-LG tickets), so it’s difficult to guage how well (or even if) the normal rules of incumbency apply.  Also, Virginia hasn’t seen any LG run for re-election in sixteen years; only one has run for a second term in the last half-century (Don Beyer in 1993).  On balance, I’d say Bolling should be happy.

In other words, with four months to go, the Republicans in Virginia have the advantage in all three races.  Sure, they were here before in 2005, but it still beats the alternative.

UPDATE: As you can probably tell by now, the details are now part of the PPP release.  Among the interesting nuggets:

• All three Republicans are at 38% in Northern Virginia (703), but Shannon (the local Dem) is weakest at 48% – likely a reaction to his opponent (Cuccinelli) also being local.
• Bolling is the only Republican ahead in Southwest Virginia (276)- although I suspect Cuccinelli can make up some ground here (not sure about McDonnell – given Creigh Deeds’ roots in the western part of the state – although Bath County is not in SWVA).
• Jody Wagner only runs even in Hampton Roads (757) despite being from there.
• The most Republican area code (the only one where all three candidates lead by double digits) is 540, which stretches out to the west but is anchored in population by the Fredericksburg area (where yours truly calls home)

Nothing ground breaking – especially with regional samples this small, but interesting.