Statewide GOP ticket leads by double-digits

It’s official: 2009 is its own race.

For the first time, I believe, ever, the Republicans have double-digit leads for all three statewide offices (Survey USA):

In the race for Virginia Governor, Republican Bob McDonnell today defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds 55% to 40% . . . Incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling is today elected to a second term, defeating Democrat Jody Wagner, former Treasurer of Virginia and Secretary of Finance 54% to 42% . . . In the race for the open office of Attorney General, Republican Ken Cuccinelli today defeats Democrat Steve Shannon 53% to 42%.

Of course, the election is still just over three months away, but the GOP has only swept the statewide races once (in 1997, when John Hager never even led a poll outside the margin of error, let alone by this margin).  The Republicans are in a very strong position.

Now, the poll has some anomalies, which I will be happy to address.  For starters, there is the partisan split (52% voted for McCain).  Keep in mind, however, we’re talking likely voters for 2009 here, and it’s quite likely that large numbers of Obama voters won’t be showing up this year – Bush-2004 voters did the same thing to Jerry Kilgore in 2005.  This also explains the heavy GOP presence in the party ID figures.

There also appears to be an overrepresentation of Central Virginia in the poll, but since that region actually brought McDonnell, Bolling, and Cuccinelly down, I wouldn’t be too worried about that.

This polls is telling us, in a microcosm, what we’ve known in the national polls for a while: Obama is slipping and Republicans are energized.  Whether or not they can keep it up remains to be seen, but as my Dad likes to say, it sure beats the alternative.

Switcheroo in New Jersey? Again?

Jim Geraghty received this email from a reader in New Jersey:

“FYI, my son, who is a registered Democrat, got a call last night from a poll taker asking how he would vote if the candidate were Corzine? Or [Newark Mayor] Cory Booker? Maybe the Dems are getting ready to throw him overboard?”

And Booker isn’t the only one (New York Times): “. . . another potential Democratic candidate emerged on Friday, as Representative Frank Pallone Jr. let it be known he would step in should Mr. Corzine bow out.”

All of this is in reaction to Corzine’s complete inability to make any headway against Chris Christie, and a massive corruption scandal that just happens to have landed several of Corzine’s allies in prison. Corzine has become so toxic in New Jersey – a state that prides itself on its tolerance of toxicity – that other Democrats running “for other offices were talking about breaking publicly with him to maintain their own election viability.”

Thus, local Democrats in New Jersey are stuck in a perilous bind.  They must either run without Corzine, or against Corzine.  Either way, Corzine’s great asset – his vast personal fortune and willingness to use it – has no value whatsoever; this means a whole slew of New Jersey Democrats will be desperate for money they didn’t think they needed (including, perhaps, a new gubernatorial nominee).

That will be felt by Virginia Democrats, who will see a lot of money promised to them diverted north.

Paul Krugman meets reality

One of the great myths of the health care debate is the notion of Canadian superiority. Those who actually live in the Great White North become very amused when I mention the myth.  I’ve been following Canadian politics for about twelve years now, long enough to know that the myth is indeed just that.  Most Americans, however, have not – especially the lefties who are still convinced that Canada’s system is “better.”  One of them is Paul Krugman . . .

. . . or, perhaps I should say, one of them was Paul Krugman (YouTube).

h/t Kevin D. Williamson (NRO – Media Blog)

Cross-posted to Virginia Virtucon

The fate of the leaders, two years later

As Election 2009 kicks into high gear, I must confess that I am pleased to see where the Republican Party is today.  The GOP has rescued itself from the HB3202 millstone, and re-established itself as the party of lower taxes and limited government in Virginia.  Sure, the GOP received a heaven-sent opportunity when the Supreme Court tossed out the taxes in HB3202, but opportunities can be squandered (and very often have been); the Republican Party of Virginia instead seized that opportunity and saved itself.

That said, we should still remember those brave few who stood for what’s right in 2007.  For those who have forgotten, there were four who stood tall against HB3202 and all of the other tax-hike schemes of John Chichester and his RINO clique (including the Warner tax hike of 2004).  These four were Mark Cole, Jeff Frederick, Tom Gear, and Bob Marshall.

As it happens, Frederick is retiring.  Cole, meanwhile, has no opposition, and thus is assured another term.  Therefore, I will focus on Marshall and Gear.  The former is once again up against not just a Democrat, but an entire left-wing apparatus determined to bring him down.  He has fought them off nine times since 1991, but that does not guarantee a tenth.  He deserves the help of every Northern Virginia Republican; heck, as the fellow who brought the suit against HB3202 to the State Supremes, he deserves the support of every Republican, if no every Virginian.

I’m guessing Gear is not as well known, but he has been with the taxpayer every time.  This year, Gear not only faces a Democrat, but also an ex-Republican “Independent” named Gordon Helsel.  Now, I don’t know Helsel, who is currently the Mayor of Poquoson, but Gear has earned another term with his principled opposition to tax increases and runaway government spending, period.

So, if you can help out either of these Delegates, please do.  If you can managed to help both, fantastic.  Just (WARNING: self-absorbed bleg imminent) be sure in your travels back and forth to spend some time in Spotsylvania.

Wilder, having had enough, talks to the Washington Post

After all the speculation, recriminations, and other assorted nonsense aimed at him, Doug Wilder gave the Washington Post a call.  During the conversation with Rosalind Helderman, Wilder laid out the issues that are important to him:

Wilder said he has a number of unresolved concerns that he would like to hear more about from Deeds. They include “financial stewardship” of the state, Deeds’ gun control position and his position on abortion rights.

Somehow I doubt Deeds will disappoint Wilder on abortion.  Gun rights is iffy, but Deeds is better (from Wilder’s perspective) on this now than he was.

If anything will keep Wilder from backing Deeds, it’s the first one: “financial stewardship” – the one issue to which no one has paid attention except for a few (including yours truly).

Lest anyone forget, Doug Wilder is a rare Democrat – one who actually respects the taxpayer.  He is the only Virginia Democrat in 40 years to refuse to raise taxes as Governor.  He is clearly very worried about Deeds’ tax-hiking record.

Meanwhile, McDonnell has drawn a line in the sand against taxes, and has specifically cited Wilder’s cost-cutting commission (which recommended the privatization of liquor sales) as a way to avoid tax increases.  That’s going to have an impact on Wilder.

It’s no surprise that he decided to tell someone; sadly, it’s also no surprise that almost no one (not even Helderman) seems interested in hearing him.

Another Doug Wilder story, and more confusion

Former Governor and Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder was in the news again today, tipping off Politico about a two-hour meeting he had with an Obama political aide about Virginia.  The president (and nearly every other Democrat) really want Wilder to back Creigh Deeds, but Wilder won’t budge.

Politico’s author (Jonathon Martin) joined nearly everyone else in missing the boat  The closest he came was this comment: “He is still held in high esteem by many voters, especially older African-Americans and centrist whites” (emphasis added) – yet he never bothered to describe why said “centrist whites” hold Wilder in high regard.

Again, as I posted earlier, Wilder’s actions over the last 20 years are quite consistent.  As one of the few remaining Democrats who respect the taxpayer, he has always been skittish about his party’s leftward lunge on economic issues.  Those of us who remember his years as Governor will always be grateful for that.

Perhaps if the Democrats had not nominated one of the most prolific tax-hikers in Richmond, Wilder would be more receptive to Washington’s overtures.  As it is, he is remaining true to himself and his legacy of efficient government and low taxes.

Obama’s approval rating falls below 50%, disapproval at 51%

It’s happened (Rasmussen, emphasis added):

Overall, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance. Today marks the first time his overall approval rating has ever fallen below 50% among Likely Voters nationwide. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove. 

I can’t say I’m surprised; President Obama has turned out to be much more to the left of where candidate Obama claimed to be (the president’s approval rating among independents is a paltry 37%).

Now, it is only one day, and one poll, but this is also the first poll that indicates any reaction from Wednesday’s press conference.  Despite the post-press conference respondents being only one-third of the sample, they still managed to move the numbers from +3 (51-48) to -2 (49-51).  That’s a very bad sign for the president.

McDonnell’s Independents vs. Deeds’ “Republicans”

While Creigh Deeds and his blogsophere backers tried to trumpet the endorsements of eight washed-up “Republicans,” Bob McDonnell unleashed over 100 Sheriffs and Commonwealth’s Attorneys who endorsed him.

What intrigued me was that 39 of these public safety officials were elected as Independents.  In fact, at least six of them ran against Republican nominees in their last election (2007).

For those keeping score, the number of Deeds “Republicans” who actually ran as Republicans in 2007 was exactly two, both of whom were defeated in primaries.  In other words, of the eight Deeds “Republicans,” exactly zero were on the general election ballot as Republicans in 2007.

So to recap, more Republicans ran against Bob McDonnell supporters in 2007 than ran as future Deeds supporters that year.  Keep that in mind the next time the Dems try to hype up their cross-party support.

A closer look at Deeds’ “Republicans” (UPDATED)

In a clearly desperate attempt to counter the Sheila Johnson endorsement of Bob McDonnell, Creigh Deeds has put together a list of “Republicans” who have endorsed him. JR at BD has the list.

Before the Dems get themselves all lathered up, they might want to look at how these “Republicans” were viewed by actual 21st-Century Republican voters.  Let’s go down the list, shall we?

• Brandon Bell – rejected by his own Republican voters in the 2007 State Senate primary in favor of Ralph Smith
• John Chichester – chose to retire in 2007 rather than face his Republican voters in a firehouse primary
• Russ Potts – last appeared on the ballot not as a Republican, but as an independent (for Governor in 2005), Republican nominee Jerry Kilgore outscored him 23 to 1 (and Kilgore lost)
• Marty Williams – rejected by his own Republican voters in the 2007 State Senate primary in favor of Tricia Stall
• Warren Barry – left the Senate to serve in the Warner Administration rather than face his Republican voters in 2003; the open seat was supposed to be a gift for his new friends, but Ken Cuccinelli won instead
• Panny Rhoades – needed a full-court press from Democrats to stave off an open-primary challenge helped by then-Governor Jim Gilmore in 1999; so highly regarded by her fellow Republicans in the General Assembly that they redistricted her into retirement in 2001; she has been backing Democrats ever since (SST)
• Katherine Waddell – Never ran as a Republican, defeated a Republican in 2005 by less than a quarter of one percent, then was sent packing in 2007 by Republican Manoli Loupassi in a twelve-point stomping
• James Dillard – Chose to retire rather than face Republican voters angry at his support for Warner’s tax increase, groomed Democrat Dave Marsden to take his place

If the Dems really think this group will help them, they’re dreaming.  Republicans have already been voting against this bunch for almost a decade now.

UPDATE - JR has more on the ROOTRs (Run-Out-Of-Town-Republicans):

You know, I did some background research on these folks today and found out some interesting things regarding their relationship with McDonnell.

McDonnell stayed neutral in the primaries for Bell and Williams. Potts/Chichester, that’s pretty self-explnatory. And, regarding Waddell, McDonnell supported Manoli against her.

It’s really rather simple, they’re supporting Deeds because of his continuous support for higher taxes (”revenue streams”, as they like to call it) and because they’re upset with McDonnell for not supporting them in primaries.

This is as petty as it gets.

I can’t say I’m surprised.

On the continuously underestimated Doug Wilder

The news of Sheila Crump Johnson endorsing Bob McDonnell for Governor almost immediately put the spotlight on another prominent African-American Virginian: former Governor and former Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder (Washington Times):

Another prominent black Virginian, former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, said in an interview Monday that political operatives for President Obama are urging him to get behind Mr. Deeds.

“I told them, ‘You need to tell me why,’ ” said Mr. Wilder, the nation’s first elected black governor and author of Virginia’s one-gun-a-month law, which Mr. Deeds opposed as a legislator.

Naturally, the leftosphere has been bashing Wilder for some time.  At first I figured it was just the usual lefty nonsense, but then it occurred to me that the blogosphere in general is quite young – especially here in Virginia – perhaps too young to remember Wilder’s remarkable term as Governor.  Without that critical piece of information, Wilder’s entire post-Governor career looks like one large ego trip, but for those of us who remember Virginia between 1990 and 1994, Wilder’s actions since then are perfectly in line with the person he is: namely, one of the last Democrats in Virginia who genuinely believes in limited government and low taxes.

When Wilder took office in 1990, he faced a state budget with a yawning deficit, and economy tipping into recession, and a choice between his plans for more spending and his promise not to raise taxes.  For nearly every other politician in America, the ending of this story is well known: a speech explaining why “essential” government programs must be preserved, a lot of hand-wringing, and the breaking of the promise to the voters to leave their wallets alone.  In fact, just that summer, President Bush the Elder was taking this well-worn path.

Here’s the thing: Wilder didn’t.  To the surprise of nearly everyone – and the fury of his fellow Democrats in the state legislature – Wilder deferred his spending plans and refused to raise taxes.  The intraparty anger was so high that Republicans – despite miniscule minorities in the General Assembly and Wilder’s presence in the Governor’s chair – actually made record gains as a result of the 1991 redistricting.

Much of that history is lost – in part because of Wilder’s presidential campaign, but far more so because Republicans (for partisan reasons) and Democrats (for ideological reasons) never want to give Wilder the credit he is due.  However, the fact is that only one Democrat has refused to raise taxes as Governor of Virginia over the last forty years: and that Democrat is Doug Wilder.

Once that is remembered, Wilder’s actions since leaving office in 1994 make perfect sense.  In 1995, when General Assembly Democrats were desperate to preserve their majorities by lambasting the tax cuts championed by then-Governor George Allen, Wilder refused to join them (Allen himself made it clear what he thought of his predecessor’s economic record by keeping most of his financial/economic appointees in place).  The voters were with Allen, but the Dems managed to turn a 48% minority into a 52-seat majority (the State Senate was split 20-20).

Two years later, when Don Beyer (Wilder’s LG) tried to run defending the car tax and all the spending that came with it, Wilder took a pass; Beyer went down to ignominious defeat.

In 2001, Wilder endorsed Mark Warner, who was facing a very economically unsteady Mark Earley, but three years later, when Warner rammed his $1.5B tax increase through the legislature, Wilder dramatically rescinded the endorsement.  A year later (2005), forced to choose between two candidates apparently comfortable with tax increases, party loyalty won out again.

I’m not sure 2009 will be like 2005 and 2001.  Already, Bob McDonnell has shown himself to be different.  The one area where he flirted with tax increases before (transportation) has turned into the one area where he (McDonnell) has been the most far-sighted and creative (to the point of dusting off one of the most valuable recommendations of Wilder’s old Commission – privatizing liquor sales).  Meanwhile, Deeds’ record is so tax-hike-heavy it groans.

It’s no wonder the Democrats haven’t been able to convince Wilder to back Creigh Deeds.  Honestly, I doubt they ever will.