That’s all?

Lowell Field over at Blue VA is highlighting a new poll that gives Creigh Deeds a 4-point lead, replete with bullet points to maximize the impact.  From that angle, it certainly looks wonder for the Democrat.

From another angle (say, mine), it looks very different.  For example:

• The pollster (Anzalone Liszt Research) is an openly Dem firm.
• Deeds’ “lead” (four-points) is not outside the margin of error.  Thus the race is actually a statistical tie (although it’s always better to be on the right side of the tie than the wrong one).
• Deeds’ advantages in SWVA and “working with the other party” is largely due to one issue: gun-rights, on which he has shifted leftward
• Overall, Deeds has one persona in NoVa and an entirely different one in RoVa, an instability which can’t last for very long.

Given all of this, I’d say the poll is far less cheery for Deeds that it appears at first glance.

To borrow from Macleans‘ Paul Wells (what is it with me and Canadian bloggers today?): Deeds nomination means game changer, not game over.

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