Rasmussen: GOP +3 in Congressional ballot

To understand how important – and unusual – this is, read Rasmussen‘s opening paragraph:

For just the second time in more than five years of daily or weekly tracking, Republicans now lead Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The first time was a six weeks ago, when the GOP held a 41-39 lead.  The current lead, at 41-38, is the best Republican showing in a Rasmussen poll since 2004.

The underlying dynamics show serious dissatisfaction with the Democrats more than any pro-Republican surge.  While the Republicans obviously can’t be happy with that lack of control, today’s events will likely reinforce the very instincts that have put the Democrats behind the GOP in this poll.

What the Specter switch means

You have to hand it to Arlen Specter. At least he was honest about the reason behind his decision to switch parties (Politico):

I am unwilling to have my twenty-nine year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate.

Fair enough, Senator.

Normally, given the nature of the Senate, a party-switcher doesn’t mean much.  This time, given that the likely confirmation of Al Franken’s election in Minnesota will now give the Democrats their first filibuster-proof majority in thirty-one years, Specter’s decision changes the entire political dynamic in Washington.

With only 40 Senators, the Republicans are effectively powerless from here on out.  However, they are also blameless.  More to the point, the Democrats will now put far more energy into keeping all 60 Senators in line than reaching out to any Republicans.  Washington will become a much more partisan city, and any problems from here forward will be completely owned by the Democrats.

Meanwhile, I suspect the Dems will look at this and the results in New York’s 20th as a sign that their ascendancy is continuing.  Given the 2009 elections everywhere else and Rasmussen’s recent polling, that’s a very dangerous assumption for the Democrats come November 2010 – or even November 2009 for Dems in New Jersey and Virginia.  Already, voters were getting worried about this Administration being too partisan.  That will only get worse over the next year and a half.

In short, the Democrats will now go full steam ahead to enact all of the things they and President Obama shielded from the voters, in the hope that said voters will simply roll over in 2010 and 2012.  I don’t see it happening.  The only two presidents who ever managed to pull that off were Lincoln and Roosevelt – the former had most of his opposition attempt to secede from the Union instead of fight him in elections, while the latter stole the march on his opposition (prior to FDR, the GOP was the party of big government) and as a result was able to swipe large swaths of Republicans.  Obama is in neither position.

Again, the last time the Dems had absolute, unchecked power in Washington was 1978, and in the aftermath of Watergate and Vietnam, the situation seemed just as “permanent” as today’s.  Two years and two election cycles later, Ronald Reagan was elected president and the Republicans had their first Senate majority since Eisenhower – the latter being a complete, unvarnished shock to the entire nation.

Now, 2009 isn’t 1978, but it’s not 1933 either, no matter what party Specter calls home.

Big tax increase proposed in Dinwiddie

Say what you want about the Augusta County Board of Supervisors (and I have, quite a bit), at least they advertised an equalized tax rate to ensure the assessment fiasco didn’t turn into a local government revenue bonanza.

They’re not so lucky in Dinwiddie (Richmond Times-Dispatch):

A big turnout of Dinwiddie County residents is expected at a public hearing tonight on the proposed real estate tax rate.

The Board of Supervisors has proposed a real estate tax rate of 77 cents per $100 of assessed value, 10 cents less than the current rate. The proposed reduction has not pleased residents whose property assessments rose dramatically this year.

The hearing will be at 7 p.m. in the Dinwiddie High School auditorium, 11501 Boisseau Road.

The 2008 reassessment, the first in four years, showed residential property values went up an average 47.4 percent . . . The real estate tax rate would need to be slashed to 61.5 cents to offset the impact of the reassessment, county officials said. Two of five supervisors have said they would favor approving a lower rate than the one proposed.

In other words, the average Dinwiddie property owner will see their taxes go up 20% if the advertised rate is adopted.

Didn’t they hear Terry McAuliffe?  Even he’s acknowledged you don’t raise taxes in a recession.

White House offers apology (sort of)

White House Military Office director Louis Caldera took the blame for the NYC fly-by fiasco (Washington Times via Hot Air):

White House Military Office Director Louis Caldera issued a brief statement saying he was too (sic) blame.

“Last week, I approved a mission over New York. I take responsibility for that decision,” he said. “While federal authorities took the proper steps to notify state and local authorities in New York and New Jersey, its clear that the mission created confusion and disruption. I apologize and take responsibility for any distress that flight caused.”

The President made sure everybody knew he was “furious” at what happened (ABC). 

One can only imagine the reaction if this had been April of 2008.

The White House better have a d*mn good answer

Apparently someone in Washington thought it was a good idea to scare the New York City metropolitan area half to death (WCBS-NY):

Ellen in Bayonne, N.J. described what she saw to WCBSTV.com: “I saw the jet flying very very low over the Hudson river, it looked like it was going to fly through our office window. Then it banked sharply toward New Jersey. But our building was evacuated because it did this 3 times. A photo shoot should have been communicated to the building in the area. We haven’t forgotten 9/11, people were in a panic, lots of rumors, not a good situation.”

. . .

Nancy in Lower Manhattan wrote: “Our building, One New York Plaza, was evacuated, as were most of the high rises in this area. How could the US MILITARY think that NYers wouldn’t be alarmed by low-flying jets? Why was the city not notified beforehand?”

Amy in Jersey City wrote: “I work in the 30 Hudson building in Jersey City, on the side that faces the Statue of Liberty. Our group is on one of the top floors and needless to say we probably had some of the best views of this incident. We were conducting work as normal when all of a sudden we see this huge commerical plane coming at us. People were ducking and on the floor because it came so close. The plane flew right over us and couldn’t have missed the building by more than 100 feet. Then we heard people scream it was coming back. The plane literally looked like it was going to barrel into our building coming straight at us until it turned upwards at the last minute. I can’t believe I saw the underbelly of a plane fly over me. When it started coming back a 3rd time, we ran for the stairs. It’s safe to say we are pretty angry about having to evacuate and go down 30+ flights of stairs for a ‘photo shoot.’ What a start to the week.”

So who in Washington thought this “Photo-op” was a good idea?  Here’s what Air Force spokeswoman Vicki Stein had to say (National Review Online – Media Blog)

You would have to ask the White House the specifics on the mission.

They better have a good answer over at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue – a d*mn good answer.

What Tedisco’s loss means (and what it doesn’t)

Well, my sterling record for predicting elections in my home country continues to shine: I blew another one.  Surprisingly, the long line of detractors has not come to my comments section – a humbling reminder of anonymity, I guess.

Anyhow, there are a few things we can glean from this result.  Among them:

The Republican recovery is uneven: The numbers in Northern Virginia showed a dramatic shift towards the GOP – even when the usual special election unpredictability is taken into consideration.  Here, by contrast, things were remarkably stable: the results were a near-carbon copy of Obama’s 51% in this district last November.

That said, Republicans are clearly doing better nationwide.  Rasmussen‘s Congressional ballot poll has been dead-even for two weeks, and the week prior saw only a one-point deficit for the GOP.

We could be seeing a Republican surge in the old Bush states (Virginia and Georgia), or just the states with a heavy recent shift (Virginia).  Given the still-very-underreported fact that 1 in 6 Bush-2004 voters pulled the lever for Obama, this shouldn’t be too surprising.  One other piece of evidence to back this theory is recent New York polls showing Andrew Cuomo, Attorney General and leading Democrat in the race for Governor, is waxing Rudy Giuliani.

However, if the “blue” states remain as Democratic as they were five months ago, Democrats running in purple or red states could be in deep, deep trouble.

The old Republican advantage in absentee ballots is gone: So far, only one region (Fairfax County, VA) has reversed the Dems’ absentee edge in 2008.  The rest (to the extent we have data) have merely confirmed it.  This means the GOP has to pay more attention to the absentees, or give themselves a bigger Election Day cushion.

November 2009 may not tell us as much as we thought: With only two states having statewide elections, it would have been difficult to read the tea leaves anyway.  Given Virginia’s battleground status and the deep unpopularity of Governor Corzine in New Jersey, the elections could tell us less than the 1993 results did.  That won’t stop everyone from making assumptions, but Republicans in Massachusetts shouldn’t be expecting to elect Congressman based solely on Chris Christie, Steve Lonegan, or Bob McDonnell’s performance.

On the flip side, T-Mac, Creigh, and Brian shouldn’t be ordering drapes for the Governor’s mansion based on Scott Murphy’s win either.

Jeff Schapiro is at it again

When I was at William and Mary (Class of ’94), I read Jeff Schapiro (Richmond Times-Dispatch) quite a bit.  He was something of an odd-ball, a clearly center-left reporter for a center-right paper, but he was a far better and more down-to-earth writer than the overwrought elitists in the Washington Post.

However, in recent years Schapiro has been slipping, and it happened again with rather odd report about Bob McDonnell’s “money troubles” (RTD): 

At McDonnell headquarters, the news isn’t the announcement that he has more cash than the three Democrats who are burning through millions for a shot at him. It’s what is being whispered:

That finance director Christi Smith, previously a fundraiser for McDonnell in Northern Virginia, has been replaced with Paige Hahn, who has worked for Newt Gingrich, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Republican National Committee.

Unopposed for the nomination, McDonnell trails in the money hunt compared with the party’s candidate from four years ago, then-Attorney General Jerry Kilgore, who faced minor competition in a primary.

From January 2006, when McDonnell was sworn in as AG, until the close of the latest reporting period on March 31, he has raised just over $6.5 million, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, an online watchdog of money in politics.

For the same period, between 2002 and 2005, Kilgore generated $7.8 million.

Raised less money than Jerry Kilgore?  How can that be!  Actually, if one were to take a little time and look back, it’s not that hard to explain.

For starters, long-shots aside, Jerry Kilgore was the presumed Republican nominee for Governor in 2005 from the moment Jay Katzen conceded to Tim Kaine on Election Night 2001.  That gave him a two-year head start over McDonnell, during which time (2002 and 2003) Kilgore raised over $1.9 million.  McDonnell, by contrast, only had a clear path when Bill Bolling announced for re-election, by which point (March 2008), the nation was already in recession and Virginia would soon follow.

Meanwhile, while Kilgore may have raised $1.3M more at this point in the cycle, he only had $350K more in cash on hand ($3.85M to McD’s $3.5M).

Finally, and most importantly, even at this point, Kilgore had less money on hand than Tim Kaine (Kaine had $5M in the bank on March 31, 2005).  While McDonnell has about $1M less on hand than all three Democrats combined, he is more than $1M ahead of the leading Democrat in terms of funds (Terry McAuliffe).  Those are dramatically different states of affairs, and McDonnell’s situation is clearly better than the one Kilgore faced in 2005.

One would think Schapiro would have noticed all of this as he went digging around for campaign figures.

The NFL and free trade

These are, of course, two topics that rarely meet, but this weekend, one became a metaphor for the other.

As one would expect, the Jet fan in me was thrilled to land Mark Sanchez yesterday.  Our quarterback situation was terrible; now we have a reasonable chance for a great QB for the foreseeable future.  What was given up to get the draft spot needed to pick Sanchez (the team’s no. 17 and 52 picks, Abram Elam, Brett Ratliff, and Kenyon Coleman) were more than worth it (only Coleman was a starter last year, and while Elam played well, the defensive backfield became a glut when D0nald Strickland was signed).

So, for the Jets, it was a good deal, but here’s the thing – it was a good deal for the Browns (who gave up the No. 5 pick), too.

Cleveland had no real interest in any of the top names this year.  They had some holes to fill, and Head Coach Eric Mangini had a good idea which players he wanted from his former team.  He knew better than anyone what talent couldn’t get on the field in New York but could work for his team.  So he got the players he wanted and a second round pick, plus a few more after dealing the Jet’s No.17 pick and moving down to No. 21.  I suspect most Brown fans are happy with how events transpired.

That is the nature of international trade.  Sure, the economist in me could bore you, dear reader, to death with comparative advantage charts and production-possibility curves, but for football fans, it’s an easy explanation.

If football were more like politics, you could see measure taken to ban the Jets from dealing quarterbacks (the talent pool was low, making it worse would be counter-intuitive), or draft picks (too many holes to fill on the offensive side of the field), or a whole slew of things that would make no sense because they take only a narrow view of the team’s situation.

Well, substitute the economy for the team, and (I hope) one can see why economic protectionism is such a bad idea.

The Democrats just don’t get it

Speaker Howell held a press conference with some of Virginia’s business leaders this morning on why the $125 million in federal unemployment “stimulus” was a bad idea.  It was yet another example of the Virginia GOP getting over its pre-2008 big-government binge and re-establishing itself as the party of small business, limited government, and lower taxes.

I was hoping there would be some discussion of the cost to businesses that would come when the “stimulus” money ran out.  I wasn’t disappointed (VA House GOP Caucus).  I was particularly impressed with James Hatcher’s discussion on how raising costs on business makes it harder for them to expand and hire additional people (VA House GOP).

This is the kind of issue that will help bring back the voters the GOP has been bleeding in the Commonwealth for years: small business owners, economic conservatives, and small-l libertarians, i.e., voters who would be with the Republicans on economic issues, but aren’t very interested in social issues, and thus have drifted to the Democrats.

Even better, the Dems don’t understand the meme – the fellow behind Raising Kaine (now @ Blue VA) ranted against “big business” and accused the Republicans of “hating the unemployed.”  It’s rhetoric straight out of the Dukakis campaign, and exactly the kind of thing that will drive away the very voters the Democrats needed to win over the last eight years.

Rest assured, Mr. Speaker, when you’re getting reactions like that, you’re doing the right thing.  Keep it up, and you’ll have a larger majority this November – with three statewide officials to back it up.

Wizards get Flip Saunders

I could make snide remarks about getting ready for the crushing disappointment of the team underachieving in the Conference Finals . . .

. . . but that would mean the team gets to the Conference Finals, an obvious improvement over recent years (even before the debacle that was this season).

Saunders is a proven commodity in the regular season, not so much in the playoffs.  Once again, next season will be dependent upon the knees of Agent Zero, but if he can stay healthy - and keep the 20-1 assist-to -turnover ratio – Flip could have this team in the hunt for a division title (which admittedly means little in the NBA).

If the fans and the team ever reach the point where Saunders’ post season problems become a disappointment, then the Wizards will finally be ready for the next level.  Until then, they should be fun to watch again.