Yes, I know it’s only 10:30 in the morning, and New Yorkers in the 20th district will be voting for more than 10 additional hours, but I’m sticking my neck out: Republican Jim Tedisco will win.
Why do I say that? Three words: New York Post. Each link has details on the crippling tax hike the Democrats agreed to impose on all New Yorkers. Here’s Fred Dicker on the budget (second link):
The budget created by Gov. Paterson, Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith is a monstrously bloated, tax-and-spend plan that, in one fell swoop, reverses a three-decade-long effort to strengthen business and prevent taxpayers from fleeing the state.
For those who don’t follow New York politics closely, the Democrats won control of the State Senate last November. This is the first time the Democrats have had unfettered control of state government in seventy years, and in less than three months they have decided to whack New Yorkers with a massive tax hike.
The Post also noticed that New York’s labor unions (particularly the public sector ones) were hardly scratched (last link). Big Labor in NY has its own political party (the “Working Families” Party), whose main job is to push Democrats to the left.
Guess who the WFP endorsed in the 20th? Yup, the Democrat running against Tedisco.
So you have a bunch of Upstate New Yorkers finding out they’re going to get smacked with a huge tax-hike imposed on them by the triumvirate of state Democrats (all of whom reside in New York City) and looking for the first opportunity to vent their frustration – on the very day they have a special election.
Like I said, Tedisco wins.
March 31, 2009 at 10:39 am |
I think Tedisco would squeak out a narrow win even without this news, but I have to believe if the Tedisco campaign can get this story all over the airwaves in Poughkeepsie and Albany, he might end up winning y a comfortable margin.
March 31, 2009 at 1:08 pm |
The general tenor of reporting is that democrats are confident and republicans are pessimistic. I think it is a toss up, but hard to believe the republicans will lose with the huge voter registration advantange. The Siena poll (plus 4 Murphy) had only 64% of republicans voting for Tedisco, which hardly seems possible.
March 31, 2009 at 4:00 pm |
Anything can happen in an special election, which is why I think it’s a mistake to take this one Congressional election and draw any conclusions about the country as a whole, no matter what the result might turn out to be.
For what it’s worth, though, there is one report that seems to indicate that Tedesco’s isn’t entirely optimistic:
http://tinyurl.com/cayvv9
March 31, 2009 at 11:48 pm |
Well its a razor thin lead for the Democratic candidate, so there is no hope for Tedisco I am afraid. Then again if it was a razor thin lead for Tedisco I would probably say the same.
April 1, 2009 at 12:49 am |
[...] Tedisco wins « The right-wing liberal [...]
April 1, 2009 at 4:14 am |
GT,
There are still thousands of absentee ballots that won’t be counted until Monday.
April 27, 2009 at 10:27 am |
[...] Well, my sterling record for predicting elections in my home country continues to shine: I blew another one. Surprisingly, the long line of detractors has not come to my comments section – a humbling [...]