Jim Geraghty has news of an excellent poll for New Jersey Republicans, along with the caveat that must always come with a poll like this:
New Jersey has broken the heart of every Republican running statewide since, oh, 1997 . . .
Indeed. In fact, the last Republican in the state of my birth to win more than 50% of the vote statewide was former President Bush – the Elder – in 1988 (Governor Christie Whitman was elected in 1993 and 1997 with 49% and 47% respectively).
Still, in what was supposed to be the beginning of the golden era for Democrats, and in a state where they repeatedly pummel Republicans, good news is good news (Quinnipac, also cited by Geraghty):
While few New Jersey voters know much about him, former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, a Republican challenger, leads Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine 44 – 38 percent in this year’s Governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This reverses a 42 – 36 percent Gov. Corzine lead in a November 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Democrats support Corzine 72 – 10 percent while Christie leads 86 – 7 percent among Republicans and 49 – 24 percent among independent voters. Men back the Republican 51 – 32 percent while women go Democratic 42 – 38 percent. Black voters back Corzine 68 – 9 percent while white voters back Christie 52 – 32 percent.
This becomes less surprising when one sees, in the same Quinnipac release, that Governor Corzine has an approval rating of only 41% (50% disapprove).
It’s been a dozen years since any Republican won New Jersey, and this year there is a new wrinkle – a Lieutenant-Governor (each party’s gubernatorial nominee will pick a running mate) – on top of the normal unpredictability that accompanies a campaign.
Still, at the very least, it means the Democrats will have to divert resources from Virginia, which could be a big deal for House of Delegates races.
So New Jersey will finally get a Lt. Governor ?
Interesting.