“That’s not the same Bill Howell that you heard in 2004″

That was how Shaun Kenney described the Speaker in his interview with Jim Hoeft.  He (Shaun) meant it as a compliment, and so do I.

The Speaker continued hammering Tim Kaine’s tax increases and defending Glen Oder’s transportation plan.  For those of us who remember 2004 and 2007, it was very refreshing.

Howell is continuing to the rebuilding effort begun during last week’s special session.  If he can keep his caucus in line and stop tax increases this winter and spring, he could very well have a larger majority in 2010 than he has now.  He’d certainly deserve one.

Joe Murray comes within 16 votes in 46th District; how’s that tax hike look now, Timmy?

Less than a month after Tim Kaine presented his tax increases, one of the safest districts the Democrats have (the 46th, Brian Moran’s old district) turned into a swing district tonight.  Republican Joe Murray came within 16 votes of pulling the biggest upset in this state since Winsome Sears (State Board of Elections).

As I write this (10 PM), there are whispers of a possible recount (the margin was less than 1%), but whether there is one or not, the larger point cannot be missed.

Here we have Barack Obama in his glory as President-elect without having to tick anyone off by making a decision yet; George W. Bush is still in the White House.  Yet in a district deep in the inner suburbs of Northern Virginia, anchored around what is arguably the Commonwealth’s most left-wing jurisdiction (Alexandria – 11 of 12 precincts), the Republican still won half the votes.

We can only hope the legislators in Richmond see these results and take notice.  Democrat Paul Hackett’s near miss in a 2005 Congressional special election in Ohio was a portent for the 2006 - and 2008 - elections.  Is this a portent for November 2009?  At the very least, it should give the Democrats pause about following Tim Kaine’s tax increase.  More importantly, it should encourage the Republican Delegates to use their majority to block any tax increase, be it on the budget, transportation, or anything else.

It’s Special Election Day in the 46th (so if you live there, vote for Joe Murray)

Well, it took me long enough to remember to put Joe Murray in the hallowed right-hand column, but there he is!

Just in time for (Special) Election Day.

So if you, dear reader live in Skyline precinct (Jim, how could you forget Skyline?!) or the parts of Alexandria formerly inflicted with represented by Delegate Brian Moran, head for the polls and vote for Joe.

As I stated earlier, every single vote Joe Murray gets makes it harder for Tim Kaine, Dick Saslaw, and the rest of the Democrats to raise our taxes.  This one has the eyes of the Commonwealth on it, and given its electoral history, any strong showing by Murray will spook the Dems and steel the nerves of the Republicans in Richmond for the upcoming tax battle in General Assembly.

Augusta assessments up 27.7%

Lynn Mitchell (SWAC Girl) revealed the news on Augusta assessments – and their still way up:

The news is in on Augusta County real estate appraisals … and it’s not good. Reassessment increases of 28% on residential properties will be reflected in notices to be mailed to county residents later this month.

Commercial property increases averaged a substantial 42%.

Now we have the numbers, but the battle has only begun.

Under state law, Augustans must be made aware of the “equalization rate,” i.e., the tax rate that would be revenue neutral (depending on growth and inflation since 2005, it will likely be somewhere around 46 cents).  Even before the number is revealed, Augustans need to make clear they expect the Board of Supervisors to enact the equalization rate: anything above equalization is a tax increase, period.

As I’ve said before, this isn’t just about Augusta.  If taxpayers in one of the most Republican counties in the Commonwealth get hit up for a tax increase, the rest of the state is in real trouble.

So, even as we keep watch upon our own respective local governments, we must all keep a wary eye on Augusta, and make sure that all of the current Supervisors – Republican, Democrat, and Independent - are made aware that a tax increase and any ambitions beyond their home county are mutually exclusive.

Augusta BOS to review assessments tomorrow morning

SWAC Girl (a.k.a. Lynn Mitchell) reports that the Augusta County Board of Supervisors will reexamine the quadrennial real estate assessment.  Given that the last assessment was in 2005, Augusta’s assessments initially were slated for a 33% increase.  When local residents hit the roof, the Board agreed to a do-over, the results of which will be released tomorrow.

From what Lynn reports, the assessments will still rise.  Given that the last assessment was two and a half years before the housing bubble burst, that’s understandable.

The locals’ reaction is just as understandable, especially considering the Augusta hadn’t equalized its tax rate (i.e., reduced it to account for higher property values in over twenty-five years.

The Supervisors who has tried hardest to postpone the assessment and spare the taxpayers – Tracy Pyles, the Board’s lone Democrat – called for equalization in response to any assessment increase.  None of the majority Republicans reacted in the Waynesboro News Virginian piece cited by Lynn.

The last time assessments were made (2005, and they rose), the Republicans had four of seven seats on the Board – but they didn’t equalize the tax rate.  This time, however, the rest of the state is watching.

This isn’t just about Augusta – which was one of the few counties the GOP swept last November (yes, even Jim Gilmore carried it).  If what is arguably the most Republican county in the Commonwealth ends up with a tax increase, it will be much easier for other counties in Virginia to hit up their taxpayers for more money.  Moreover, the State Senator the represents Augusta (Emmett Hanger) has been using local government “needs” as his excuse to support tax increases in 2004, 2006, and 2007.

The Republican Party began its political recovery in Virginia during last summer’s special session, and it started to bear fruit last night.  Will the Augusta Republicans on the Board of Supervisors keep up the momentum?  Or will they turn the party back toward the wilderness of higher taxes, angry activists, and libertarians defecting to the Democrats?

We’ll see in the coming weeks.

2009 starts out well for Virginia Republicans

The first Virginia elections of 2009 (and the first House of Delegates elections since the Republicans righted themselves in last summer’s special session) are in (h/t to Bearing Drift), and it’s very good news for the GOP.

Bill Howell’s caucus easily held on to the 81st District seat as Barry Knight waxed Democrat John LaCombe by a 5-to-1 margin (Virginia State Board of Elections).

For the Democrats, however, their special election victory (the 70th) had ominous portents.  Delores McQuinn won the seat with 73% of the vote – nine points worse than Knight in the 81st.

Here’s the kicker: McQuinn had no opponent in her race (SBE).  Meanwhile, the number of write-ins in the 70th tonight was more than twice the number in 2007, despite there being less than one fifth as many votes cast in 2009 as in 2007 (SBE, scroll down to the 70th District).

Granted, special elections are special elections, but we can glean two things from the results.  First, President-elect Obama continues to have little or no effect on elections where he is not on the ballot.  Second, the dynamics at the state level in Virginia seem to favor the Republicans.

At least that’s how it looks as we await the next special election: the 46th next Tuesday.

Just call it the Clinton Intelligence Agency

Those of us who have an interest in foreign policy couldn’t help but notice the steady decline of the Central Intelligence Agency during the George Tenet era.  One could say that President Bush’s greatest mistake was keeping Tenet in place, all but ensuring the CIA’s slide into its current role as the State Department’s mini-me.

Porter Goss tried to right the ship in 2004, and was rewarded with the end of his political career.

Now, as Senator Clinton prepares to take charge of the State Department, Obama decides to select her husband’s longest-serving White House Chief of Staff – Leon Panetta – as the new head of the CIA (Washington Post).

Panetta’s complete lack of experience in intelligence is problematic, but not prohibitively so.  More worrisome is his ties to the Clintons, which make it very likely the CIA will continue to team up with the State Department in the various Washington policy battles . . .

. . . and as those who follow them closely know full well, the State Department is almost always wrong.

The Joe Murray Moneybomb

Joe Murray is the Republican candidate for the 46th House District special election on the 13th (next Tuesday).  His supporters have set up a money bomb which began less than half an hour ago.  To help it along, you can contribute here.

Having never met Joe Murray (or even become aware of him until he became the GOP nominee), and not being a resident of the 46th, I believe I can answer the question most of you, dear readers, are asking: how does this impact me?  The answer begins with the office up for grabs: a seat in the House of Delegates.

Right now, the House Republican caucus is the only sure thing standing between Virginians and a tax increase (if memory serves, Bill Bolling is not allowed to break a tie on tax issues, so while the spirit is willing, the office is weak).  So far, Speaker Howell is comfortable holding the line, but he will face unrelenting pressure from the Democrats who run the State Senate, the Governor who is moonlighting as DNC Chair, and all of their friends at MSM.

A strong showing by Murray would make it clear that even in regions friendly to the Democrats, the low-tax, limited-government message can win support.  Even if Murray loses, 45% will make a have stronger impact in Richmond than 35%; every vote Murray wins on the 13th will embolden Republicans and make Democrats more nervous about backing Kaine’s tax increase.

Of course, if Murray were to actually win next Tuesday . . .

So, those of us who do not live in the 46th still have a stake in the outcome.  I wouldn’t have said that a year ago, but the special session re-established the Republican Party of Virginia as the party of lower taxes and spending restraint – especially the Republicans in the House of Delegates.  I’m sure they’ve appreciated the encouragement from party activists and the blogosphere, but nothing works better than election returns.

That’s why this race is important.  The more votes Murray gets, the less likely a tax increase becomes, period.

Tim Kaine to Virginia: Don’t bother me on the budget, I’m busy running the DNC

Arrogance, thy name is Timothy Kaine (Washington Post):

Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine will become chairman of the Democratic National Committee later this month, serving as the top political messenger for Barack Obama‘s administration even while finishing his final year in the governor’s mansion, several sources said.

Kaine, 50, who emerged as a finalist for the job of Obama’s running mate last summer, will operate from Richmond in a part-time capacity until January 2010, when he will become the full-time DNC chairman. Kaine is constitutionally barred from running for reelection.

Credit must be given to Michael Shear (the Post reporter) for noting the obvious (which has been a problem for the Post when it comes to Virginia politics):

Taking the DNC job will make Kaine an irresistible targetin his home state, where critics have long accused him of putting partisan politics ahead of governing. State GOP leaders are sure to accuse the governor of doing what he said he would not: shift his attention from the state during a budget crisis that demands swift action.

Accuse, my foot; Kaine has most certainly chosen to “shift his attention from the state during a budget crisis that demands swift action.”  Moreover, I would humbly submit – OK, not to humbly – that this will put more pressure on Kaine to resist necessary spending reductions and quite possibly expand upon his proposed tax increase.  His fellow Democrats will likely be compelled to follow suit.  Virginia’s budget crisis now has the added dimension of becoming the most politically charged state-level issue in America.

For Virginians, inflexible Democrats mean the budget will be harder to resolve, and the chances of a tax increase sneaking through the House of Delegates (only 7 defections required – assuming Johnny Joannou remains the lone Democrat who refused to back tax hikes) is much higher.

As for the House Republicans’ plans on transportation, they’re pretty much dead.  There is no way the Democrats allow any transportation plan that doesn’t increase taxes to become law.  There may be a Senator or two willing to cross party lines on this issue in the GOP’s favor  (I stress, may), not nearly enough to override a certain Kaine veto.

For Election 2009, things aren’t so clear.  Yes, the parallels between Kaine and Jim Gilmore (who became RNC Chairman in 2001) are obvious, but the situation is vastly different now.  The likely battle in Richmond is sure to damage Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran, but Terry McAuliffe might be able to enhance his reputation – especially if he holds firm to his refusal to back any tax increases.  Bob McDonnell, meanwhile, could be tied to the Republican refusal to support any tax increases – which will help him in November, but I’m not sure he knows that.

So, the worst case scenario – McDonnell forces Howell et al to roll on some tax increase (likely on the transportation front), enabling McAuliffe to be the lone anti-tax-increase candidate – is possible.  More likely, though, Terry Mac will be the one who decides a tax increase is OK (Kaine’s tobacco tax is exactly the kind of thing that Clinton Democrats like McAuliffe – Clinton’s DNC Chair – would back).

In short, while the stakes are higher on the national front, the objectives are still the same: make sure Speaker Howell and his caucus hold the line against tax increases and continue the reputation rebuilding begun during the special session, and keep a wary eye on Bob McDonnell – to save him from himself.

The good news is this: if we can pull it off, the entire nation will notice.

Glenn Oder resurrects HB6055 (the good version) as HB1579-80

Delegate Glen Oder (R-Newport News) has brought back HB6055 – the version that did not include tax increases and, in fact, quite reasonably tied transportation funding for certain regions to the economic activity generated there (to be specific, activity at relevant ports).  The new-and-vastly improved HB6055 was an excellent first step towards sensible transportation funding – thus, the Senate Democrats killed it at the first opportunity.

Well, Oder is bringing it back, this time as HB1579 (Daily Press):

Del. G. Glenn Oder wants to link transportation funding to future economic growth at state ports and airports in Northern Virginia, which could be a boon for Hampton Roads‘ weary network of bridges and tunnels.

. . .

Last summer, Oder’s plan surfaced so quickly, many legislators didn’t have much time to digest the idea. Oder said he hoped that a full discussion and debate would generate momentum.

Oder has also expanded the idea past NoVa and HR to include “similar setups around the Inland Port at Front Royal, the port in Richmond and Reagan National Airport” (DP again).  This could head off efforts in Richmond to impose a 3202-like tax behemoth on that region.

I was particularly amused by the response from State Senator John Miller (D-NN etc.): “There has been a reluctance in the Senate to dip into the general fund for transportation.”  I’d like to know why that is.  Transportation is one of the very few things for which government spending has near universal acceptance.  Yet the Democrats always manage to make sure partisan, divisive priorities are funded ahead of it – going all the way back to 2002.

That the Democrats have been playing this game of chicken for so long should surprise no one.  That the GOP has decided to call their bluff (again) is a pleasant shock.

With this bill (and its companion, HB 1580, which drives a stake through the heart of the Hampton Roads Transportation Authority), the House GOP leadership (which worked through Oder last summer and I assume is working through him again now) is making it clear that the special session was no fluke.  Last summer, they showed us they learned their lesson; this winter, they’re applying that lesson and making it clear that they are willing to do the hard work necessary to prevent raising taxes on Virginians.

For that, they deserve our praise, our thanks, and our support.