Tim Craig’s last line actually said it all “Score one, finally, for the Virginia GOP.” Of course, he said a lot more, here are some of the juicier lines (for Republicans, anyway):
. . . the Virginia Democratic Party was outflanked by the GOP. Murray won the absentee ballot precinct with nearly 80 percent of the vote, a clear sign that Herring and the Democrats got beat in the all-important organizing effort..
For weeks, Murray and Alexandria Republicans have been telegraphing that they thought Murray could pull off an upset with just a few hundred votes.
Democrats never took it seriously, and they will now suffer the consequences.
What are those consequences, you ask? Craig answers in detail (emphasis added):
True, Herring appears to be the winner. And when the Democratic nominee stands for election to a full term in the fall, they will likely easily prevail. (Will it be Herring?)
But Murray’s strong showing is a huge coup for Virginia Republicans. With all 100 House seats up for election this fall, the Herring-Murray race becomes the last election that reporters and pundits have to evaluate the political landscape for state House races heading into the fall.
Instead of stories about the undeniable Democratic trends in Northern Virginia, pundits will have to leave open the possibility that maybe, just maybe, the GOP isn’t dead in Northern Virginia after all.
If Murray can nearly pull off an upset inside the Beltway, how can anyone conclude that Fairfax County Republican Delegates David B. Albo, Thomas Davis Rust or Timothy M. Hugo are underdogs this fall? Or what about Del. Jeffrey M. Frederick’s (R-Prince William) open seat?
. . .
From now until that election, the Herring-Murray race will be mentioned in news stories and GOP candidates will use it to bolster fundraising.
And Democratic incumbents in Northern Virginia will feel a need to redouble their own reelection efforts just to be on the safe side. That will drain resources away from other competitive races.
In other words, the 46th just completely reversed the political script in Richmond. Democrats will be on the defensive for the first time in almost ten years. Meanwhile, on the all important matter of stopping tax increases, this could very well be what keeps Dave Albo in line (I think Hugo would have been solid in any event, while I fear Rust is a lost cause).
The only issue I take with Craig’s post regards this statement:
No, Moran shouldn’t be blamed for failing to do more to prevent Democrats from suffering an embarrassing result in a district that President-Elect Barack Obama carried with 75 percent of the vote two months ago. As a candidate for governor in a tough race, Moran didn’t have the luxury of personally visiting Alexandria Democrats around the holidays to remind them to vote in a special election.
I’m not sure I agree with that. More to the point, I’m all but certain Terry McAuliffe and Creigh Deeds won’t agree with it. Both can look to their respective regional Democrats (to say nothing of Southside, HR, and Central VA ones) and ask: “Do you really want to have our ticket led by the guy who nearly lost his own House seat – in a district where Barack Obama won nearly 3 in 4 votes?”
In fact, I would humbly submit that Creigh Deeds and Terry Mac were probably the only Virginia Democrats who had a good night.
January 14, 2009 at 12:27 pm |
To offer an opposing viewpoint, the election in the 46th is not really an indication of anything changing in Virginia. It won’t send shock waves through richmond house, and it won’t create any hope for the GOP in northern virginia. It was a special election in January with a five or six percent turnout. Kudos to Mr. Murray for fighting a hard race, and it would have been nice to see a victory.
Republicans throughout the area will use this as a rallying cry to organize the party, and perhaps that infact will be the greatest success to come out of this. However there is really nothing more that should be taken from this, other than the democrats almost got caught sleeping. It would have been a nice seat to pick up, but at the moment, alexandria is still about as blue as they come.
GOP strategists will try to spin in but in reality there is not much to be taken from a special primary, in january, on the premier night of american idol.