See you in 2009!

The family vacation will keep me far, far away from the homestead over the next couple of weeks, so RWL will go dark from now until the New Year.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, and Happy Insert-your-holiday-here-if-I-left-you-out.

Tell me something I don’t know

Quelle surprise!  Conservatives trust Republicans far less than they used to trust them (Washington Post, h/t Mountain Sage, emphasis added):

Just 23 percent in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll said they trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle the main problems facing the nation, the lowest level reached by either party in surveys dating back to 1982.

. . .

Trust in the GOP has fallen nine points since May, driven by a 19-point decline among conservatives. Nearly one in five in that group said they trust neither party.

I can’t imagine what would have caused that.

State GOP hammers Kaine for tax increases and Wagnerian numbers

One day after he first ripped Governor Kaine’s tax increase, Speaker Howell is at it again:

Right now, Virginia’s families and businesses small and large are having to make difficult and painful decisions regarding their own budgets.  It falls to us to do the same.  As the people we serve are struggling to live within their means and make do with the incomes they earn, they rightfully expect their government to adhere to the same standard . . . The House will meet this challenge, and is fully prepared to amend the existing 2008-2010 state budget without requiring any Virginians to pay more in job-killing taxes during an economic recession.

Fairly boilerplate stuff, but the important part is to keep firing, which is what Howell did.  Moreover, he had help from Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling.  We’ll start with McDonnell (via Riley at VV):

I am disappointed however that the Governor has called for a tax increase. You should not raise taxes in a recession, and you cannot tax your way to prosperity. Another huge increase in the cigarette tax would potentially threaten a Virginia industry at a perilous time, while increasing the tax burden on many Virginia citizens and small businesses when they can least afford it.

Lt. Governor Bolling not only ripped the tax increase, he noticed something very disturbing about the projected revenue in the second part of the biennium (next year):

I am very concerned by the Governor’s proposal to increase taxes by $167M. Throughout this process the Governor has repeatedly promised to balance the budget through spending cuts, not tax increases; and it is very disappointing to see him renege on this promise. The people of Virginia expect their leaders to keep their word, not break their promises.

I am also concerned that the Governor’s tax increases could have a devastating impact on tobacco industry jobs in Southside and the Richmond area. Given the overall economic slow down, these businesses are already suffering enough, and now is not the time to place additional tax burdens on their shoulders.

I also continue to be concerned that the Governor is basing the budget on overly optimistic revenue projections in the 2009/2010 fiscal year. At a time when the economy is struggling and state tax collections are declining, the Governor continues to estimate that we will see economic growth of 4% in the upcoming fiscal year. If we fail to meet these revenue projections, we could face additional budget shortfalls next year. A more prudent course would be to assume little or no revenue growth in the upcoming fiscal year and adjust state spending accordingly.

As Norm at TQ put it:

Four percent growth next year? Either the Governor’s office has hired Dr. Pangloss to conduct its economic forecasts or crack chart reader Jody Wagner is back on the payroll.

Ouch!

Tim Kaine probably figured that the special session was an aberration, that he could once again cut the GOP in two over a tax increase.  So far, he’s been proven wrong – and that’s very good news.

Howell rips Kaine tax hike (UPDATED AND BUMPED)

Now this is what I like to see from the Speaker (Shad Plank):

House Speaker William J. Howell and U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor came out agressively (sic) against a potential cigarette tax hike Tuesday, calling the increase “an assault on jobs.”

. . .

Cantor noted that Philip Morris employs more than 5,500 people in Virginia and has another 5,000 retirees on pensions throughout the state.

“He’s going to go after one of Virginia’s largest employers,” Cantor said. It’s “an all out attack on our jobs especially in the Richmond area….now is not the time to go on the attack.”  

Howell said that state coffers have benefited because Philip Morris’ parent company Altria- recently moved its corporate headquarters to Virginia and also shut down manufacturing in North Carolina. Howell questioned the logic of turning around and doubling the tax on a “good coporate (sic) citizen.” 

“What sort of message does that send to the corporate community?” Howell asked.

Democrats love cigarette tax hikes: most Virginians don’t pay them (less than 1 in 4 smoke now, if memory serves); they (the Dems) can pull a misdirection and say it’s about preventing smoking; and opposing a tax increase can look awfully close to “defending tobacco companies” – which by itself can be bad optics in Northern Virginia.

That said, they can (and should) be challenged.  For starters, a tax like this can be used to end smoking or it can be used as a stable source of revenue, but not both.  Given that Kaine is only presenting this tax hike in the face of a $3.5 billion shortfall, it is beyond comical for him and his allies to claim this is about stopping smoking.  It’s about profitting off smoking, pure and simple.  With this proposed tax increase, Kaine would effectively make Virginia’s government as addicted to nicotine as the average smoker.

There is also the effect on the sellers themselves, who even for tobacco won’t be able to pass all the tax hike to consumers, and thus will likely have to cut jobs in some form.  Thus, Howell and Cantor’s point is valid.

The most important thing, however, is that they started yesterday.  Tax increases seem easy to oppose, but those who oppose them need to pound on them as soon as they are proposed and never let up.  By hitting this one even before it comes out (that will be later today), Howell is already ahead of the game.

All Howell has to do is add the argument above to what he already has - and keep it up day after day after day after day after, well, you get the idea.  Not only can he and his fellow House Republicans stop this thing cold, but they could even begin to convince the rest of the state governments to kick their own smoking (revenue) habits.

UPDATE: Wow.  Brian Kirwin over at Bearing Drift found this stunner in the Virginia-Pilot:

Kaine would restore $150 million of the money with proceeds from the cigarette tax increase, should the legislature approve the increase.

In other words, the Governor wants to get Virginia’s government hooked on tobacco revenue when it doesn’t need to be because he has already found additional spending reductions.

As Brian himself puts it, “That’s literally tax and spend!”

The Governor would also like to override the judges and prosecutors across the Commonwealth by letting nonviolent crooks out three months early to cut costs. 

But college tuition aid goes up!  Didn’t someone know that up is the wrong direction?  Then again, considering the Jody Wagner era, perhaps we should be fortunate this little vector error willl only cost $25 million – or any number that is just in the millions.

What the bailout has wrought

Rich Lowry (NRO) - who, it should be noted, supported the Wall Street panic bailout – has a serious case of buyer’s remorse.

The next time someone says the MSM is more careful and ethical than the blogosphere . . .

. . . be sure to point them in the direction of the Prince William News and Messenger.  To see what I mean, check out BVBL (who has been keeping a pained eye on this rag for years), Riley at VV, and Scott’s Morning Brew.  Sad, just sad.

There he goes again

Four months ago, Tim Kaine “ruled out raising taxes to solve the budget problems” (Norm at TQ).

Today, according to Fox News in DC, he’s going back on his word – again (Norm):

So Kaine Will Raise Taxes

At least, that’s what Fox News in DC is twittering:

VA lawmakers say Kaine will propose cigarette tax hike and state job cuts.

Interesting. Kaine earlier ,”…in an August speech to the money committees, ruled out raising taxes to solve the budget problems.”

If the Fox report is true, then I guess that when it comes to taxes, nothing Kaine says, no matter how many times, can be taken at face value.

Now let’s see how many Republicans agree with him. After all, smokers are a distinctly unfavored group, and taxing them isn’t really going to rankle anyone important, right?

Norm is right; it’s not easy to defend smokers these days, but the larger point is this: it is time Richmond stop demanding more revenue when times get tight.

The last Richmond City politician to become Governor - Doug Wilder – understood this, and because of that he is without doubt the most underrated Governor in the history of the Commonwealth.

This time, it’s up to the House Republicans to put their foot down and make it clear the tax-hike era in Virginia is over.

B-Day minus 1

As Norm at TQ notes, tomorrow is the beginning of the of the budget debate.  Governor Kaine will present his plans to close the $3.5 billion budget shortfall to the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees (Virginia Pilot).

It doesn’t help that neither Kaine nor the Senate Democrats will admit to the size of the problem (VP):

The first step in the budget deliberations will be for all sides to agree on the size of the shortfall.

Computations from Kaine and his economic advisers put it at about $2.8 billion – slightly more than Virginia spends every year on public safety, including operating prisons and the State Police Department.

The House Appropriations Committee has said Virginia may be facing a $3.5 billion hole; the Senate Finance Committee thinks the revenues are $3.2 billion shy.

Looks like Jody Wagner is still controlling the Governor’s budget projections – in spirit anyway.

As for moving forward, Governor Kaine “ruled out raising taxes to solve the budget problems” (VP again).  Trouble is, as Norm has noted he’s said that before, only to go back on his word.

Meanwhile, two of the three Democrats running for Governor have already opened the door to tax increases.  All they need now is for the House Republicans to cave and give Kaine bipartisan cover, and then all is well in leftyland . . .

. . . which is why Speaker Howell and company must make sure it does not happen.

JR has penetrating questions; I have uncomfortable answers

JR Hoeft – he of Bearing Drift fame – took a trip to Williamsburg with the family over the weekend, which led his to ask some questions about the long, strange trip it’s been for the American republic since what is now historical was contemporary.  Write Side and Shaun Kenney echo JR’s lament.  I do not.

This isn’t to say that JR’s concerns about the growth of government are groundless – we are rendering onto Caesar far more than it deserves, needs, or would have under optimal situations.  It is to say that the battle between liberty and tyranny has ebbed and flowed, and I would humbly submit that in many respects the 18th century was hardly the cradle of liberty, even during the Revolutionary era.

To show what I mean, I decided to try to answer JR’s inquries.

In this beautiful city of liberty, where a man (and woman’s) virtue is tied to self-sufficiency, individual ingenuity, and personal accountability, why (and where) have we strayed so far?

First of all, there was only one state in the original thirteen where women were even considered part of the body politic – New Jersey: the only state that allowed propertied widows to vote (blacks were also able to vote – if they met the property requirement – but several states had that, including a Dixie state or two).  Note my mention of a property requirement; for better or worse (I would say worse), if you didn’t hold sufficient property, you didn’t vote, period.  This was in place in Virginia in the 18th century, and was maintained in some form until as late as 1851.  The assumption behind it was that those without property could not be trusted with the franchise – hardly a sign that virtue was merely a matter of  “self-sufficiency, individual ingenuity, and personal accountability.”

What would George Wythe think of today’s debate of an automobile bailout?

I don’t know Wythe’s particular politics, but it likely would have bothered him.  No one in the Revolutionary Era thought much of propping up failing enterprises – nor should they.  JR’s concern is dead-on here.

Where would Thomas Jefferson stand on foreign interventionism to keep fuel prices low?

I would like JR to name, if possible, so much as one conflict based upon that.  The liberation of Kuwait was to repel a foreign invasion of a constitutional monarchy.  The liberation of Iraq was to knock out a terrorist-sponsoring dictator.

That said, Jefferson himself could have been accused of similar base motives in the Barbary Pirates war, where he engaged and defeated the North African marauders – without prior Congressional approval – to avoid paying tribute to them.  From one angle, it was a necessary war to preserve American honor on the high seas.  From another (not one I share), it was a crass use of blood and treasure in defiance of the Constitution to save tribute payments.

How would Patrick Henry react to Indians in Bangalore servicing questions about our computers that are built in China?

Given that Henry was an avowed antifederalist, he was almost sure to be a free-trader, and as such would not have had any problem with this.

In the peaceful, quiet, and chilly streets of the colonial corner that helped give birth to the greatest republic and most powerful nation ever conceived by mankind’s virtues, I wondered where it was all coming apart?

America was the greatest republic from the moment of her founding – because outside of the French debacle she was basically the only republic for nearly a century.  Yet it was Britain who was the most powerful nation on earth until deep into the 20th century.  If anything, many of the founders (all save Hamilton and possibly Washington) would have cringed at the notion of America as the most powerful nation on earth.  In fact, it wasn’t until John Quincy Adams declared, “Liberty is power,” in 1826 that anyone openly pined for a powerful America.  JQ Adams, it should be noted, promptly went down to defeat in a landslide not matched for over 70 years.

If you want to look to the beginning of liberty’s decline, begin with the Progressives in the early 20th Century.  It was they who made social engineering the secular religion it is today.  Until they ruined things, I would humbly submit America was moving in the direction of greater liberty, not less liberty.

Are we at an end, where “experts” in Washington DC dictate to us which companies are worth the investment and which companies are doomed too fail?

Given that the founders actually created the largest private firm in America up to that time (a bank, no less, The Bank of the United States), this may not have bothered them as much as JR would have liked.  While I can’t see Hamilton supporting the original TARP idea (the government taking over the “bad debt” of banks) once he managed to understand how the collaateralized debt obligations worked (and he would have managed that), I could see him supporting a bailout of state governments.  One could argue that’s exactly what he did with the initial credit assumption of the 1790s.

Are we at an end where “experts” in Washington DC dictate to us which doctors are worth treating us and which ones we shouldn’t bother paying?

This one no founder would have understood.  JR’s right again here.

Are we at an end where “experts” in Washington DC dictate to us which radio personalities we should listen to and which ones should be sent off the air?

Lest anyone forget, the founding generation was the generation of the Alien and Sedition Acts – acts admittedly passed in haste and ill-conceived, but designed to counter a serious concern.  At the time of the Acts, we were hurtling toward a war with France, and far too many Americans seemed to prefer a French victory (in no small part due to the presence of the anti-French, ex-slave rebel colony of Haiti).  The Acts themselves were a lesson – a lesson in humility about government’s ability to differentiate between threat and mere opponent – but before said lesson was learned, the founders would have been more willing to intervene in the media than we’d like to think.  Jefferson himself could be practically fascistic when it came to opposition to his 1807 Embargo.

Are we at an end where “experts” in Washington DC dictate to us which how workers should vote, vice allowing them the privacy of their convictions?

A large number of founders would have considered unions themselves illegal restraints of trade, but in fact, many stateshad “viva voce” ballots in general elections (Connecticut didn’t have private ballots until 1818).

I walked the streets of Williamsburg tonight – a city that has captured a life long past our modern imaginations and I saw liberty. But, tonight, in my home that is equipped with all the modern conveniences of two-hundred plus years of ingenuity and competition, typing on my computer and communicating with you, my friends, in an instant, I see the end of our forefathers’ great experiment.

I see the end of liberty. The end of personal accountability. The explosion of big government. The advent of authoritarianism.

JR’s concerns about government are valid, but the “end of the experiment” has been recorded several times over the last two centuries.  Each time, liberty has managed a comeback of sorts.  The economy races ahead of government regulations.; media that becomes constrained by government (and comfortable with it) suffers as a result of an end run to unregulated media; etc.

But, I always hope. Becuase, every year, we go to Williamsburg…

I use a different “place” to find my hope: 19th Century America.  It was in this century that America – alone among the world – dramatically expanded the right to vote, diffused property holding, and created Christianity’s most successful answer to the Enlightenment.  America also grappled with itself to end human bondage (inspired by Britain, and inspiring the most tyrannical of places – Russia – to do the same) and became – for a brief moment after the War of the Rebellion – the only genuine multiracial society on earth – all while moving more and more away from government intervention in economic and cultural affairs (one more thing for JR to ponder – until 1786 Virginia had an established religion; while tithes were suspended in 1776, before then, the tax dollars of every Virginian went to Anglican Churches; other states had established religions throughout the 1780s – Connecticut until 1818).

It was in the 20th Century that things began to go downhill.

Howell junks (some) earmarks and (all) secret subcommittee votes

The Speaker takes another step in the right direction (JR @ Bearing Drift):

Speaker William Howell (R-Stafford) announced in a news release yesterday that “House Republicans have pledged not to support earmarks that do not pertain to core state services in the amendments to the 2008-2010 Biennial Budget under consideration in the 2009 General Assembly session. In addition, the Speaker announced that the House will institute reforms resulting in an overall budgetary savings of $1.1 million, approximately 15% of that chamber’s operational expenditures.”

Now, we’ll have to keep a close on eye what “core state services” means, but Howell could have tried to defend or ignore the earmark issue (his federal counterpart – Nancy Pelosi – has been doing the latter for two years).

Moreover, the Speaker took a big step forward on transparency:

. . . the added task of placing recorded votes taken by the House, its standing committees and subcommittees online on the Legislative Information System (LIS) has become possible and I have directed the Clerk of the House to begin this practice – for the first time in history – during the 2009 session.

If Howell can add to this a refusal to increase taxes in said 2009 session, he could have the Speaker’s chair for an additional two years – at least.