Approaching two days to E-Day, and I’m more confused

Election 2008 continues to throw a few curves.

First, we have the Zogby poll (from 10/31, if you’re reading this after 1AM, this is already old), that had McCain pick up two full points on Obama overnight – a hard thing to do in a three-day tracking poll (h/t Bearing Drift).  Zogby’s explanation is . . .

“Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. “Obama’s lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama’s good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on.”

In other words most of Obama’s lead in Zogby’s poll came from Wednesday’s numbers, which would have been the first polling day after Ted Stevens’ conviction.  I still believe that had an impact on the polls (not Obama’s infomercial).  Zogby may be seeing that dissipate – or this is just a blip.  We may know by 1AM.

Meanwhile, we’re finding that early voting party divide in Iowa is about on par with the 2004 numbers (and the turnout may fall short of the 2004 figure – Jim Geraghty).  That suggests that state could be as close this time as it was in 2004 (when Bush narrowly won) – unless the Republicans are all like Jim Leach.  Plus, polls in Pennsylvania show a tightening that is frankly stunning to me.

Finally, my own personal experience as a voter in what is now a battleground state – I’m seeing McCain/RNC ads now.  For weeks, it’s been wall to wall Obama – now we see far more RNC and McCain ads.  This holds true for the radio as well.

So once again, I have no real idea what’s going to happen on November 4.  Seriously.

Maybe by 1AM I’ll have a better idea – maybe.