Pat Muldoon: right message, wrong target

Some of my friends have received a robocall from Pat Muldoon, would-be candidate for Lieutenant Governor.  I am guessing I was out when the call came in.  I have heard it, though, thanks to the folks at Bearing Drift.  Muldoon is trying to capitalize on Bill Bolling’s support for the HB3202 debacle.

What Muldoon says in his robocall is true, as far as it goes, but it does not explain the whole story, and thus it badly misleads the listener.

In 2007, many Republicans acquired the stain of supporting HB3202, the transportation tax hike of 2007.  However, thanks to the Virginia Supreme Court, the Republicans had a heaven-sent opportunity to redeem themselves.  Some did not take the opportunity, including Bob McDonnell, but many others did, including Ken Cuccinelli and Bill Bolling. 

I know this makes me unusual, in that I separate Bolling and McDonnell when just about everyone else in the Virginia considers them joined at the hip.  However, the two gentlemen really did move in different directions this summer.  Bolling returned to a resolute anti-tax-hike position, while McDonnell refused to close the door on tax increases.

In fact, Bill Bolling was the only statewide official in Virginia who ruled out supporting any tax increase during the special session.  Tim Kaine didn’t do that (obviously); John Warner and Jim Webb didn’t do that; and Bob McDonnell didn’t do that.

Yet it is not McDonnell that gets a challenger, but Bolling.  That is, IMHO, an unparallelled absurdity.

If Muldoon believes so firmly in resisting tax-hikers within the party (and he should), then why didn’t he challenge Bob McDonnell?!?!

What message does this send to Republicans gathering in Richmond next year?  What will go through their minds as MSM, the General Assembly Democrats, and Governor Kaine demand tax increases of one kind or another (and they will demand tax increases)?  After all, if the fellow who did the right thing is still facing a nomination challenge while the guy who did the wrong thing got a pass, why would Bill Howell et al hold firm on their very recently acquired anti-tax position?

Meanwhile, Bolling himself may be diverted from battling the tax-hike crew to fend off Muldoon in the delegate hunt, while McDonnell will have a free hand to steer the Richmond Republicans back to the regional tax increases that flattened the party in the 2007 elections.

In other words, Muldoon’s anti-tax message - aimed at the wrong guy - could make a tax hike in Virginia more likely, and as I said eariler the Commonwealth of Virginia cannot afford a tax increase in 2009. 

Yes, Bill Bolling made a mistake last year – as did Ken Cuccinelli.  Both of them got an unusual “do-over” this year, and corrected their mistake.  If I held Bolling’s mistake against him; I would have to do the same for Cuccinnelli (something I’m guessing most Muldoon backers – who also back Cuccinelli – would rather I not do).  Please don’t try to differentiate the Howell version of HB3202 from the Kaine version - they both would have imposed tax increases on Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads; they both would have imposed unaccountable regional authorities; and they both violated the spirit of the Virginia Constitution.  The only difference is that the Howell version never had to be laughed out of court.

Again, if Muldoon had challenged Bob McDonnell, I wouldn’t be criticizing him (heck, odds are I’d be backing him right now), but Bill Bolling did the right thing during the special session, and until its last night, he was one of the very few.  He lost my support in 2007, but earned it back this summer.

India mourns, and I mourn with her

Regarding the two greatest threats America faces today – the Chinese Communist Party and the arrayed forces in the Wahhabist-Ba’athist-Khomeinist War (the latter has received quite a bit of support from the former, but that’s for another day) – the only nation that faces and understands the threats as well as we do (and in the case of the CCP, better than Washington does) is India.

Today, India is reeling from a breathtaking terrorist attack in Mumbai (a.k.a. Bombay) has has the fingerprints of groups based in Pakistan (India Today).

At the risk of offending Anglophiles and fans of Japan, I would say India is the most important ally and friend we have.  I join all those in mourning her loss, and I hope the incoming Administration will be as aware of the realities of South Asia as the outgoing one.

We need India, and India needs us.  Only together can we defeat the enemies that would destroy us both.

Change you can believe – oh, never mind

Robert Gates was the Secretary of Defense who oversaw the surge in Iraq for President Bush.

You remember the surge, don’t you?  The military decision that President-elect Barack Obama (along with nearly every other Democrat in Washington) once ripped as hopeless desperation?

So, after promising “Change” to the electorate, the President-elect decides that Mr. Gates, co-conspirator (if you see the liberation of Iraq in conspiratorial terms, that is) in the surge and the elevation of General David Patraeus, should stay right where he is as Defense Secretary “for at least the first year of the Obama administration” (ABC News - Political Punch).

I wonder how many dazzled Obama voters would have lost that sparkle in the eye if they had known this in advance.

Knicks’ management: pathetic

This is beyond absurd. The New York Knicks have a new head coach. They are currently in playoff position (although it’s early).  They are above .500 (early again at 7-6, but for the previous three years the team was 4-9, on the way to spectacularly losing seasons).

So what is all the talk around Madison Sqaure Garden?

It’s about the possibility of signing LeBron James as a free agent – in 2010.

Don’t believe me?  Then look at the New York Post, or the Daily News, or Newsday, or the (Newark, NJ) Star-Ledger.  The Newsday column is particularly appalling as it is owned by the conglomerate that includes the Knicks.

Is this how far professional basketball has fallen?  Are we to just accept that the franchise in the biggest market will mail it in for two years?!

Why I do not support removing Jeff Frederick (UPDATED)

The Frederick Fight (my term) has spilled over into the local blogging scene, thanks to Eric Martin.  For those who haven’t been paying attention (which is probably most of you), Ken Klinge (Tom Davis’ right hand) is calling for Frederick’s head (BD), as is Shaun Kenney (UPDATE: whoops! Shaun was just reporting the news, not agreeing with it; sorry, Shaun) and Maximus over at The Contemporary Conservative.  By contrast, BVBL and Jim Bowden would prefer Frederick stay.

I should also note there is a sidebar to this regarding Mr. Frederick’s lack of contact with the blogosphere.  Several bloggers are unhappy withe Frederick on this score (Cathouse Chat, Scott’s Morning Brew, Crystal Clear Conservative, Virginia Virtucon, Below the Beltway, and The Write Side of My Brain, Leslie Carbone, and Jason Kenney at BD).  I tend to agree with the above bloggers on this narrow issue, but outside of Jason (UPDATE: Looks like I made the same mistake regarding him as I did Shaun), I’m not sure how many of them also wish to see Frederick go.

FWIW, I, for one, do not support removing Frederick, and here’s why.

Frederick’s critics (which include many UPDATE: at least one dear friends) are citing the recent election and an admittedly very bad fundraising record over the last six months.  The Chairman will certainly need to explain the fundraising situation (although a U.S. Senate nominee who was so uninterested in his own campaign he demoralized his own blogger-in-chief might have had something to do with it), but I’m not prepared to lay blame for our election debacle here at the Chairman’s feet.  For starters, the nation underwent a net shift of nine points away from the national GOP since 2004 (and an additional two points since 2006); that’s a very difficult trend to counteract.  Moreover, Virginia wasn’t the only previously beet-red state Obama carried.  North Carolina and Indiana also went Democratic for the first time in a generation (the latter representing a 20-point shift).  New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada all experienced double-digit gains for the Democrats.

As for the Congressional races, I would humbly submit that if Tom Davis hadn’t been burned out, he could have run again and held that seat (Frank Wolf actually increased his margin from 2006, even as Obama was carrying his district).  Now, Davis was frustrated in his Senate ambitions, but I’d have more sympathy for him if he really was the economic conservative he claimed to be (i.e., he didn’t try to get HB3202 passed in a failed attempt to save his wife’s doomed State Senate re-election campaign).  The Drake defeat was painful, but she won by a whisker in 2006, and this was – contrary to many Republican hopes – a worseyear than 2006 for House Republicans.  As for Virgil Goode’s race, well if you don’t remember the Great Blog War of 2006, I can see how you might look to Frederick as a scapegoat, but some of Frederick’s critics (especially the Kenney brothers UPDATE: see above) should know better.

Contrast all of this to 2007, when John Hager was in a similar position (in the Chair for less than a year).  Frederick’s critics have harped on the fact that Hager was never given the extended time for which Frederick is now asking.  However, the context is entirely different.  While we may not have noticed it here in Virginia, 2007 was a good year for the GOP.  Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour was re-elected; Bobby Jindal was elected Governor of Louisiana in a landslide; and Republicans made gains in the New Jersey legislature for the first time in over a decade.  The only place the party tasted defeat was in Virginia.

The reason why that happened is the main reason I am not ready to see Frederick go: the RPV’s pre-Frederick tax-hiking history.  From 2002 to 2008, the Republican Party of Virginia supported or acquiseced to tax increases on four seperate occasions, including the HB3202 debacle in 2007.  John Hager did nothing to move his party away from that history: no apology to the voters, no harsh words for Bill Howell and company to never let that happen again, no assurance to voters that it wouldn’t happen again.

Frederick, by contrast, was Chairman less than a month before Bill Howell tried again in the special session with another tax increase proposal.  Unlike Hager, Frederick called Howell out in the Washington Times, and while there were a lot of critics of Howell loudly stating their case (including yours truly), I’d be a fool to say the words of the RPV Chairman didn’t have an impact.

We cannot risk the RPV Chair being filled by someone who would be silent in the face of a Republican cave-in on taxes, or even worse, agreeing with a tax hike.  While the Democrats have been quiet for now, the yawning budget shortfall, coupled with the ongoing transportation debate, will give them every excuse they need for “revenue enhancements.”  As saw in 2007 and the first few days of this year’s special session, too many Republicans in Richmond need the shoes burned off their feet to do the right thing.  We can argue about Frederick’s ability to help turn up the heat, but he certainly won’t bring a fire extinguisher with him.

I have no such guarantee about a prospective replacement.  In fact, I don’t even know how Frederick’s critics have in mind; I’m pretty sure they don’t know.  That’s reason enough for me to be skittish.

Simply put, the Commonwealth of Virginia cannot afford a tax increase in 2009.  In my humble opinion, removing Jeff Frederick will make a tax increase more likely.

For that reason, I say keep him where he is.

Cross-posted to the Rappahannock Red

College football number two: It’s Oklahoma

Well, well, well.  We have quite a situation in the Big 12 South.

Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech have all played each other.  All are 1-1 in the mini-round-robin.

This would matter to no one except regarding who gets the non-Alabama slot for the BSC title game.  As far as I’m concerned, it’s Oklahoma.

Within the Big 12 South, it’s simple.  If you look at the three games in question, Oklahoma has scored the most points (100) and given up the fewest (66).  They’re also the only one who actually dominated one of the other two (and both of the others had the opportunity to do so).

The only other teams that would have an argument (outside of the Big 12) are Florida and USC.  Well, Florida laid an egg against Mississippi – at home.  Oklahoma lost to Texas on the road.  USC lost to Oregon State, whom I would not put in Texas’ league.  Also, USC will either not be the conference champion (if Oregon State wins out) or have their loss come to a two-loss team (if Oregonn State loses).  Either way, Oklahoma’s loss looks better.

This win seals the deal – and seals USC’s fate, IMHO.

As for Florida, they’ll get Alabama in the SEC Championship.  Win that and they’ll take the Crimson Tide’s place in the BCS title game.  At least that’s how I see it.

Anne Taetzsch fires back at Klinge, at point-blank range

Ken Klinge’s letter demanding Jeff Frederick resign as Chairman of the RPV (or be deposed in a putsch) has made the rounds of the blogosphere already (Jason Kenney has it over at Bearing Drift); Jim Bowden has come to Frederick’s defense.

Personally, the fact that there is so much, um, enthusiasm – yes, we’ll go with that word – for a change among the crew who saddled the party with the HB3202 debacle leaves me less than impressed.  Say what you want about Frederick, he spoke out against HB6055 (the bad version) at a very critical time.  Replacing him with someone more comfortable with a tax increase strikes me as unwise, especially now that the bill for the Warner spending spree has come due.

Anne Taetzsch, the head of the Staunton Republican Committee, is a bit more emphatic.  She responded directly to Klinge as follows:

Kenneth,

I am absolutely appalled by your email.  This is typical of the representation of the culture of country club republicans which are tearing our party apart in Virginia.   

We have been through tremendous turmoil these past several years and now you suggest we once again go through another public battle of undermining our chair and selecting yet another representative.  Basically you are saying that inconsistency is best and we must embarrass ourselves in the media to uphold your agenda, your vision of the party. You expound upon what Chairman Frederick has not done, what is YOUR vision for the future of the party?

Furthermore, as a lobbyist, how intimately involved should you be with the inner workings of a political party?  And, this from a gentleman who donated money to Dick Saslaw. Do you not think your money could have been better spent on republican candidates–or better yet, donated to the Republican Party of Virginia? It begs the question, who put you up to this–who are you representing? 

Jeff Frederick was elected only 6 months ago with an overwhelming majority, represented by thousands of citizens across the Commonwealth.  How dare you suggest that these citizens voices be silenced to further your agenda. This is irresponsible and I for one sincerely hope that our party has enough commonsense to stay the course and re-evaluate that which is truly at the core of the issues with our party–redefining our message, sticking to our conservative values and putting an end to the pandering of moderates.  

Anne Taetzsch

Chair, Staunton Republican Committee

OUCH!

State budget shortfall passes $3 billion

The bill from the Warner-Kaine spending spree gets bigger – again (RTD):

The hole is even deeper than expected.

The Senate Finance Committee of the Virginia General Assembly is projecting a budget shortfall of at least $3.2 billion for the 2008-10 biennial budget — an even bleaker projection than the $2.5 billion Gov. Timothy M. Kaine had forecast previously.

And the shortfall in the $77 billion budget could reach as high as $3.5 billion if lawmakers retain an additional $350 million in high-priority, mandated programs approved last session, according to the committee’s report, “Fiscal Issues Facing the Commonwealth.”

“The economic picture has become clearer and uglier,” the report states.

Kaine’s administration already has taken action to address roughly $1 billion of the shortfall. But the Finance Committee report — released yesterday at a bipartisan retreat for the state’s 40 senators in Fredericksburg — suggests lawmakers will need to carve out another $2.5 billion from state spending in the upcoming 2009 legislative session.

Norm Leahy over at TQ noted this paragraph with approval:

Lawmakers from both parties yesterday signaled that virtually nothing would be left off the chopping block when they reconvene Jan. 14 in Richmond. That includes spending in health-care entitlements such as Medicaid as well as public education.

Given that a massive Medicaid increase was one of the primary drivers behind this fiasco, it’s good to see that we may finally address fixing that error.

Still, I can’t stop thinking some Democrat, at some point, will throw up their hands and call for higher taxes, especially when the red-headed stepchild of the state budget (otherwise known as transportation) comes up for discussion.

It’s easy for Republicans to resist tax increases for this or that social experimentation, but the party has an addiction to funding “roads” that it inherited from the Whigs.  Never mind that no one has seriously looked under the hood of state road spending for years (yes, pun intended, deal with it); never mind that at least one report pointed to potential savings of nearly $1 billion a year . . .

Let’s just hope the GOP establishment in Richmond can remember that they kicked the the tax-hike habit last year.  If they go for another fix, they’ll be fixed to lose elections well into the next decade.

Myth and reality in Georgia

In the span of one week, we have seen two of the more prevalent myths about the Russia-Georgia war collapse in a heap of rubble.

The first is how it started.  The New York Times gave that one new life with a story basically blaming the Georgian government for the war.  Trouble is, the Times never talked to eyewitnesses where the fighting actually started.  Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty did, and revealed that the NYT is as incompetent and bias in its international reporting as it is in its domestic reporting (emphasis added):

For Giorgi Kapanadze, the fighting in South Ossetia began days before the world even noticed that a war was going on.

Pro-Moscow separatist forces had been shelling his hometown of Avnevi, an ethnic-Georgian village inside the breakaway region, pretty much nonstop since the beginning of August until Georgian troops entered the enclave around midnight on August 7-8.

“The war did not start on August 7 for us, it started on August 2,” Kapanadze, who now lives in a shelter for displaced persons in Tbilisi, told RFE/RL’s Georgian Service in a recent interview.

Dozens of eyewitness accounts like Kapanadze’s, collected by RFE/RL correspondents on the ground, contradict recent media reports — most prominently a November 7 article in “The New York Times” — suggesting that Georgia attacked the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, unprovoked on August 7.

Tbilisi has long claimed that in sending troops to South Ossetia, it was acting defensively against separatist and Russian aggression.

The eyewitness accounts are also consistent with a report, issued on August 5, by a tripartite monitoring group, which included Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) military observers and representatives of Russian peacekeeping forces in the region.

The report, signed by the commander of Russian peacekeepers in the region, General Marat Kulakhmetov, said there was evidence of attacks against several ethnic-Georgian villages in South Ossetia. The report also claims that South Ossetian separatists were using heavy weapons against the Georgian villages, which was prohibited by a 1992 cease-fire agreement.

In other words, even the Russian “peacekeeper” force commander has acknowledged that Georgia didn’t start the war.

The other myth has involved the performance of the Georgian military forces.  Despite the fact that Russia had tremendous numerical superiority, the CW that managed to congeal was that Georgian forces were incompetent in defeat.  My friend Spank That Donkey was particularly hard on Georgian forces.

Well, they (and he) might want to take a look at this account in the Weekly Standard (emphasis added):

Russian forces were able to overcome Georgian forces because of sheer numbers, but in air operations the Russians had their proverbial head handed to them. A total of 12 Russian aircraft were lost to Georgian air defense units, including one Tupolev Tu-22M Backfire bomber. By the time hostilities ceased Russian pilots were being offered lavish bonus payments if they were willing to fly missions over Georgia, and still some of them turned the offers down, preferring to stay on the ground where it was safe.

Again, Russia had the numbers, but it’s pretty clear they needed the numbers, because they sure couldn’t rely on air cover.

I know things have quieted down in the Caucuses (for now), but the truth is still too important to forget.  Putinist Russia did not get what it wanted (the overthrow of Georgia’s elected government), and I’m sure they’ll try again.  It will be much easier for Moscow if the rest of the world believes – wrongly – that its foes are a bunch of incompetent adventurers.

This is especially true given the fellow who will lead the free world in two months’ time.

Piracy a fact of life near Somalia? India never got that memo.

So we are now being told that piracy off the coast of Somalia is just a fact of life, because the civilized world is “helpless” (Saudi Gazette and Deutsche-Welle) against the outlaws (h/t Media Blog).

Looks like someone forgot to tell India (AFP via Google):

An Indian warship destroyed a pirate “mother vessel” in the Gulf of Aden, the navy said on Wednesday, as bandits demanded a ransom for a Saudi super-tanker seized in the most daring sea raid yet.

The Indian frigate INS Tabar — one of dozens of warships from several countries protecting shipping lanes in the area — attacked the Somali pirate ship late Tuesday after coming under fire, navy spokesman Nirad Sinha said.

Perhaps being ignored by President-elect Obama has inspired the world’s largest democracy to start taking matters into their own hands.