I must confess that I had no intention of watching last night’s debate. I figured anything new or unusual would be reported afterwards (and indeed, it was – Fox News). Ironically, it was one of my teenage sons who decided the debate would be on our TV screens. As expected, I didn’t see anything I didn’t expect (although McCain’s new mortgage plan mentioned in the above link was quite the surprise once I heard of it after the debate ended).
For some reason, however, nearly everyone else seemed to think McCain missed his best chance to “change the game.” Putting aside the fact that Zogby and Hotline (Jim Geraghty) still have this race very close, most are basing this on Rasmussen and Gallup’s numbers (and others, I presume).
More to the point, however, this debate was never going to be the one where McCain shifted the dynamic. Like early primaries, debates are in no small part about the expectations game – and the first two debates (the former limited in theory to foreign policy and the latter in town-hall format) were set up for Obama, not McCain, to exceed expectations.
The final debate (a week from today), which is limited to domestic issues, is supposed to be McCain’s weakest, and thus gives him the best opportunity. Moreover, since he can’t psychologically seek comfort in foreign policy at any point in the that debate, he’ll have to focus on the economy.
Right now, the voters are worried about the economy above everything else, and are looking for the candidates to provide their plans to improve it. McCain actually has the better plan, but he’s been a disaster at articulating it. With a full 90 minutes, he should be able to get his points across.
FWIW, they must be these:
A corporate tax cut helps stockholders, too - With everyone white-knuckling their 401K statement, a policy move that automatically improves the balance sheet of very firm listed on Wall Street sells far better than it would in years past. McCain has to remind the voters again and again that his corporate tax cut will mean better corporate dividends and earning statements, meaning higher stock and mutual fund values.
By contrast, Obama’s capital gains tax hike would be a disaster – there’s a reason cap-gains tax cuts lead to increased revenue almost immediately: the tax is a capital killer. Obama’s tax hike would scare tens of billions, if not hundreds of billions, or dollars away from Wall Street by cutting the rate of return across the board. With Wall Street currently as ill as it is, this comparison should be a no-brainer.
If he’s going to rip “predatory lenders” and such, mention the ones under investigation - One of the probes, if memory serves, went public right before McCain first used this line in a GOP nomination debate back in January. Having stumbled across the news, I knew what McCain meant, but hardly anyone else did. Bringing this to light will do two things: 1) ease the concerns of the GOP base that McCain is back on the class-warfare kick, and 2) expose the fallacy of Obama’s call for more regulations. What’s the point of new laws if the old ones are not being followed?
Finally, hit Obama on taxes, all the time. Expanding on the first two points, McCain must make clear that Obama will raise taxes on just about everyone. Yes, he intendsto counteract them with tax reductions elsewhere, but we’ve heard that from Democrats before (Bill Clinton, Mark Warner, etc.). McCain mentioned Obama’s duplicitousness on this once during the debate (Geraghty): “When he ran for the Senate, he promised middle class tax relief. You know that after he got elected, he never once proposed legislation to do that? “ McCain needs to keep that up.
In short, if McCain can defend his domestic plans well, and reveal the flaws in Obama’s policies, he will be able to change the dynamic no matter what MSM says about the debate (keep in mind that the most dramatic post-debate shifts of the last twenty years – 3rd debate in 1992, first debate in 2000, and first debate in 2004 – happened right under the noses of an oblivious MSM, and the last one was in their guy’s favor). His best chance to do that was always the October 15 debate. That is the one that will decide who our next President is.
You didn’t miss much. The little bit I heard was more McCain going after Obama then answering questions.
and Obama answering his questions with what he wants to do while he is in office.
Thank God you have a somewhat calm and collected take on this. If I read many more “we’re doomed, doomed I say!!” blog posts by conservatives I’m going to start slapping people (with a baseball bat).
See this article about economic policies. You may not agree with it all. However, the paragraphs about Obama are especially interesting:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122342618776613613.html
We are doomed ECM.
We have the Republican candidate stating he’s going to spend $300,000,000,000 to bail people out of mortgages that those people agreed to.
Hell, he essentially stole the idea from Biden who mentioned it during the Veep debate.
Ham Sandwich is looking more and more promising as a candidate as this goes along.
I have a feeling that it’s only going to get worse from here on out.
Addendum: Besides the whole bailout thing, we have the genius Mav stating that after the Russians pulled out of Afghanistan the Taliban came back in.
Uh, the Taliban didn’t exist until September 1994 and didn’t take control of the country until 1996.
You had Obama stating the following on foreign policy: invade Pakistan, embargo Iran, pullout out of Iraq, and occupy Darfur.
Did McCain press Obama on any of that? No, of course not. In fact, you had McCain stating intervention in Lebanon was a bad thing while invading and occupying the former Yugoslavia needed to be done.
Muslim terrorists in Lebanon = not a threat. Dictator with no means to effect the United States = threat.
A very desperate-sounding post. The writing’s on the wall. You can cling to Zogby and Geraghty all you want, but the Rasmussen and Gallup numbers accord with Obama’s growing numbers in state polls across the country. Last night was McCain’s last real shot at showing he’s got what it takes after his totally negative turn in the campaign hasn’t been paying off, and he failed to a shocking degree. I don’t agree with much of what Obama says, but when he describes McCain and his campaign as “out of touch, out of ideas, and running out of time,” that just seems spot-on to me. Sometimes, indeed, reality does have a liberal bias.
[...] commenter on The right-wing liberal posted the following on an optimistically written post about Tuesday’s debate: Thank God you have a somewhat calm and collected take on this. If I read many more “we’re [...]
Cap gains tax cuts do indeed result in a short term surge in cap gains tax revenue, as eveyone sells quickly immediatly after the cut. However, in the long run it reduces revenue, not only from the post-rush dropoff, but normal income tax revenues decrease from increased use of options and other reduced tax compensations for executives in lieu of normally income-taxable salary increases.
That’s not true, Jeremy. The cap gains tax rate cut brings more capital into the market, not out of it it – and the resultant economic growth further drives up revenue across the board.
[...] the dynamics of this race is the following: McCain is better for the economy than Obama is. As I’ve mentioned before (and as the McCain folks seemed to get on Friday), McCain’s best weapons against Obama now [...]