The poll numbers have certainly not been good for John McCain. The bailout debacle has distracted my attention somewhat, but I noticed it, too.
Barring a dramatic and unforeseen event, Obama will be elected in just over four weeks. Trouble is (for him), dramatic and unforeseen events have littered the entire 2008 political landscape.
In fact, we may very well be seeing one right now – the price of oil falling off a cliff despite the bailout’s passage (CNN, emphasis added):
Oil prices tumbled below $88 a barrel Monday, nearly a 10-month low, as banking turmoil in Europe exacerbated fears that a global economic slowdown will crimp demand for oil and gas.
Crude prices were also pushed lower by a stronger U.S. dollar and weakness in world stock markets.
Light, sweet crude for November delivery fell $6.07 to settle at $87.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price of crude has not been this low since Dec. 10, 2007 when the front-month contract settled at $87.86 a barrel.
Oil has fallen 40% since the July contract peaked at $147.27 a barrel on July 11.
Lest anyone think this is temporary (same link):
“As bad as the financial situation is here in the U.S., it looks as if Europe and Asia are about to feel our pain… and that’s not bullish for oil,” wrote oil industry expert Stephen Schork in his daily newsletter The Schork Report.
Of all the events that have rocked the economy in recent years, one that has put a deeper squeeze on consumers than most has been the price of gasoline. This drop in oil prices will quickly translate to the pump, especially as concern over the fate of European banks improves the standing of the dollar.
By the end of October, gas could end up below $3 a gallon, well below it (it’s fallen almost 50 cents a gallon in roughly a week’s time in my neck of the woods).
Now, gas prices took a glide path downward in the fall of 2006, to no avail for the GOP. However, that was largely due to regular American gas demand factors. This drop, fueled by a plummet in the price of oil, could be much more dramatic.
Dramatic enough to shift the dynamics of the presidential race? We’ll have to wait and see.
October 6, 2008 at 3:45 pm |
The problem is that lower gas prices may well be the only piece of good economic news out there.
The reality is simple — if this election ends up being mostly about the economy, then McCain loses. That’s been true from the beginning.
October 6, 2008 at 3:45 pm |
But to assume that one party is more religiously correct than another and will run the country better than another is rather right too
http://mccainvrsobama.wordpress.com/2008/10/06/mccain-versus-obama-hot-free-speech/
October 6, 2008 at 3:50 pm |
Er, huh?
October 6, 2008 at 9:39 pm |
[...] Before we go and hand Obama the election . . . [...]
October 6, 2008 at 10:26 pm |
Now if we could also get rid of the ethanol mandates that would knock another ten cents per gallon off the price of gas!
October 6, 2008 at 10:53 pm |
Heh, the funny part of that Ron is that Obama has been running ads complaining about McCain voting against the use of ethanol.
October 7, 2008 at 7:22 am |
If I were McCain I’d turn that around and rip Barry O for backing Bush’s disastrous energy policy (the ethanol vote was part of the Administration’s 2005 energy bill).
October 7, 2008 at 12:27 pm |
Didn’t Palin bring that up during the debate? Don’t recall how much she pushed the issue through.
October 7, 2008 at 2:10 pm |
I thought either McCain or Palin brought up repealing the ethanol mandate during one of the debates (and I thought it was McCain). However, the issue was not pushed really hard (or made to blow up in Obama’s face like it should have been).
For those of you who own gas-powered yard equipment, you should see what the instruction manuals say about fuels that have ethanol content. Apparently, that stuff isn’t too good for the trimmer motors and fuel lines.
October 16, 2008 at 9:55 am |
[...] Before we go and hand Obama the election . . . [...]
October 16, 2008 at 10:37 am |
>Why do you think he Obama drinks to excess or at all? He seems pretty sharp to me…a highly functioning alcoholic? I don’t know.
for his support of abortion, alcohol, and gays, right wing evangelcials want nothiong to do with him, for they do not believe now that Obama is a real practising Christian
http://anyonecare.wordpress.com/2008/10/15/john-mccain-sarah-palin-barack-obama-and-joe-biden/
October 16, 2008 at 10:42 am |
TNC,
What the hell are you talking about? Kindly stay on topic please.
October 16, 2008 at 5:00 pm |
[...] going off the cliff. The former dominated headlines, as one would expect, while those of us who had an eye on the latter were largely ripped for watching an effect and not a [...]