With the conventions firmly in the rear-view mirror, and the debate cycle less than a week and a half away, we’re at the point where we can take stock of things.
Truth be told, it doesn’t look much different nationally than it did before the conventions, with three exceptions:
- Prior to the convention, Obama had a slight lead; now McCain has a slight lead.
- More important than #1 (because the shift in #1 was largely within the margin of error), expectations have caught up to the numbers. For most of August, McCain was close in the polls, but no one expected him to win. Now, the expectations game is as close as the race itself.
- More important than #1 or #2, the selection of Governor Palin has led to a dramatic surge in support for the GOP in the western part of the country. Northern plain states that were too close to call or leaning McCain’s way have fallen over to McCain with ease. States where Obama had the edge (Colorado and New Mexico) are too close to call. Even down-state races out there seem to be breaking the Republicans’ way (although that’s based on anecdotal evidence).
In other words, we have a real race, and now everyone knows we have a real race.
Thus, the election will likely be decided by two things (enthusiasm and turnout now negating each other).
The debates: Contrary to conventional wisdom, nearly every campaign has seen a major debate movement, starting with the most famous (Kennedy surging past Nixon in 1960 after the opening debate). Reagan shifted into the lead after the first debate in 1980; Bush the elder expanded his lead and sealed the deal after the last debate in 1988, then nearly wiped out a double digit deficit to Bill Clinton after the final debate in 1992 (of course, Clinton hung on to win); Bush the Younger went from 6 down to 8 up (if I remember the CNN/Gallup tracking poll correctly) in 2000 after the first debate, but he also lost his substantial lead over John Kerry in the opening round of the 2004 debates. Only 1976 and 1996 saw the debates come and go without a change in the dynamic (Ford’s Poland-is-not-under-Soviet-domination faux pas didn’t slow down his near-miracle comeback, while Dole was in just as bad of shape after the 1996 debates as he was before them; there were no debates in 1964, 1968, or 1972).
Events: Harold MacMillan’s favorite scapegoat is sure to rear its head; we just don’t know how. Even Wall Street’s “Black Monday” could be (a) a crippling blow to McCain because of increased anxiety over the economy, or (b) an unexpected gift because oil is falling so fast it could take down gas prices with it before the election and decrease anxiety about the economy – and that’s just one event!
In fact, we really don’t know what will happen over the next seven weeks; three out of the last four elections have seen double-digit moves after this point in the election cycle. Right now, McCain appears to be slightly ahead nationally, and appears to have more opportunties to get to 270 than Obama does.
That’s all we know.
