You be the judge, dear reader (Gallup , emphasis added):
A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.
. . .
The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%
If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Wow.
UPDATE: It’s real! Riley at VV saw it, too!
September 12, 2008 at 12:46 pm |
The other big if is whether these numbers translate through to individual races.
As I said in my comment over at VV, we’ve seen polls like this before, especially during the Reagan years, and we still had Democrats retaining control of Congress year after year — and regained control of the Senate in 86 after losing it in 80.
September 12, 2008 at 12:58 pm |
That was also due to the Dems have the edge on redistricting, which they most certainly did not have in 2000. These numbers should translate to a GOP House.
IF they hold, that is.
I’m also thinking that this number will lead some people into rethinking their vote, now that they see Congress could really be in play. They’ll take a step back and ask themselves if they really want the GOP running Congress again. I call it the “second look effect,” and it’s a staple in Canadian elections.
September 12, 2008 at 1:42 pm |
[...] of my fellow bloggers — D.J. McGuire at The Right-Wing Liberal, Riley at Virginia Virtucon, and Jason Pye — are pointing to a new Gallup poll which seems to [...]
September 12, 2008 at 2:08 pm |
[...] of my fellow bloggers — D.J. McGuire at The Right-Wing Liberal, Riley at Virginia Virtucon, and Jason Pye — are pointing to a new Gallup poll which seems to [...]
September 12, 2008 at 2:11 pm |
Wasn’t the same GOP-controlled redistricting in effect in 2006, when the GOP lost 31 seats and control of the House 6 Senate seats and control of the Senate ?
Actually, I think the best scenario for the GOP in Congress would be an Obama victory accompanied by votes for Republican candidates for Congress by voters who recognize the advantages of divided government,
September 12, 2008 at 2:18 pm |
Except that Gallup had the GOP trailing by 10 points on election day 2006.
September 12, 2008 at 3:03 pm |
Then we should probably pay more attention to this poll in 50 days rather than right now.