The Democrats’ convention begins

As with everything else surrounding the 2008 presidential race, the Democratic convention begins in a confusing moment.  The pollster that has been usually most favorable to the Democrats (John Zogby) is the only one who puts John McCain in the lead.  Meanwhile, the pollster I trust most (Rasmussen), has Obama stretching out to a four-point edge (three with leaners), while Gallup (who uses registered and not likely voters, and thus has a bit of a bias toward the Democrats) has them dead even.

What will happen?  You expect me to know?

What I can do is try to dispel some of the convention myths out there.  For starters, George H.W. Bush did notwipe out a 17-point deficit during his 1998 1988 convention.  Mike Dukakis did move the spread up to seventeen after his convention, but that has already come back to single-digits before the GOP shindig began.  Likewise, Al Gore did not perform a similar feat in 2000, Bush the Younger also saw his 17-point edge largely dissipate before the Gore’s convention began.

In fact, most convention “bounces” tend to disappear within a few weeks.  There have only been two exceptions that I have seen in twenty years: Bush the Elder in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 1992.  In 1988, Bush built a six-point lead coming out of his convention and never lost it.  Clinton, meanwhile, benefited from the surprise withdrawal of Ross Perot right in the middle of the Democratic convention (his quasi-endorsement of Clinton didn’t hurt either) and used it to establish a twenty-plus-point edge that lasted until the GOP convention that year.  Contrary to popular myth, the GOP did get a bounce out of that convention – at least ten points worth – but it was only enough to cut into Clinton’s lead, not eliminate it.  By September, the deficit was back to fifteen points, and stayed there until the third debate.

As for Obama, I find it hard to believe his bounce will be last very long, and not because the GOP convention is right after it.  Obama is the kind of candidate who looks terrific, then gets progressively worse as time goes in.  The convention is a good chance for him to get that ol’ magic back, but when it’s not the first time, the half-life is much shorter.

The real question is the fate of Clinton supporters.  Will this convention bring them to Obama?  If so, Barack will get a nice bounce - say, 6-10 points (yes, I said 10).  If not, he’ll be lucky to get 5.

Weirdly enough, McCain may have the better shot at a long-term bounce than Obama; despite his long record as a politician and his obvious history as a POW, most Americans don’t know McCain personally.  While Obama’s life has been an open book for months (well, several, actually), McCain has been very guarded.  If voters find they can relate to him after his convention, he could zoom past Obama and into the lead when the debates begin.

There is only one certainty: the campaign will look very different two weeks from now – unless it doesn’t.