My Veep guesses

The following predictions are based on numerous factors. Some are already hackneyed; a few have been surprisingly ignore; and of course, all of them are probably wrong.  Anyhow, here goes.

For the Democrats – Mark Warner: I know, I know, he took himself out of the running, but I’ve never believed him on that.  What matters here is that Warner is the most popular Democrat – by far - in a state that went from a luxury for Obama in June to a near-necessity for him now.  Moreover, lest anyone forget, Warner can run for Vice President and Senator at the same time, so contrary to conventional wisdom, he will give up nothing by agreeing to be Barack’s running mate.  Finally, with all the speculation centered around Warner’s successor (and poor political substitute), the Warner pick will include the surprise needed to give the Dems the spark that Obama needs them to have going into the convention.

As for the problem of Warner already being the keynote speaker, forget it.  That can be rearranged in a heartbeat (no pun intended).

For the Republicans – Tom Coburn:  On some level, this is still based more on hope than analysis, but Coburn came through for McCain at just the right time – right after Romney’s upset win in Michigan.  The Coburn endorsement gave McCain right-wing gravitas in South Carolina that he just didn’t have in 2000.  Without it, there’s a good change Huckabee wins South Carolina and this campaign goes down a very different path.  Moreover, Coburn is not just a down-the-line conservative; his battles against government spending have even given members of his own party fits – just the kind of thing to which McCain is drawn.

Anyway, that’s how I see it.