Norm Leahy offered his initial take on the 11th Congressional District race this morning (Tertium Quids), and took particular issue with Larry Sabato:
As too often happens in politics, Larry Sabato is asked for his opinion. Hilarity follows:
“The 11th is socially liberal,” Sabato said. “That’s where the change in the party is occurring. It’s not on the fiscal issues; most residents in the 11th remain fiscally conservative. They have become alienated from the Republican base because of its social conservatism.”
We can blame Hegel for the introduction of alienation into the lexicon, but as for the splits in the GOP, to pin them all on social conservatives is a gross misreading of reality.
While the 11th may, in some sense, remain “fiscally conservative,” one of the great divides in the GOP base developed over fiscal issues. Earmarks? New entitlements? Burgeoning spending? All reasons why fiscal conservatives have pondered going fishing on election day than continuing to support Republican spendthrifts.
I would agree in part with Leahy’s observation, but I think reality actually makes his deeper point (the GOP must return to limited-government policies) even more than how he tells it. I don’t think “fiscal conservatives” in suburban areas like the 11th CD “have pondered going fishing on election day than continuing to support Republican spendthrifts.” I would humbly submit that most of them are have done something even more dramatic – vote for Democrats based on social issues.
Economic conservatives (a term I prefer far more than “fiscal conservatives”) are a mixed lot on social issues, and those who are also to the right on social issues have stuck with the Virginia GOP. However, economic conservatives from suburban and urban areas tend to be more to the left on social issues, but still vote Republican because they (these voters) define themselves on economic issues first. From 2001 until last month, the Republican Party of Virginia seemed determined to make itself indistinguishable from the Democrats on economic issues (including taxes and spending). It should come as no surprise that the party suffered the largest consequences in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, where these voters didn’t just stay home – they crossed over to the Democrats because of social issues.
For Republicans, the conclusion is obvious: without a limited-government, low-tax platform, the party is toast. Fortunately, the RPV seems to have learned its lesson. The General Assembly Republicans finally kicked the tax-hike habit; the new RPV Chairman sounds determined to make sure there is no turning back; and Leahy himself was impressed with the GOP candidate for the 11th (TQ again):
Fimian spoke at the July TMG meeting and made a strong case for a return to conservative fiscal principles — particularly on entitlement spending . . . Fimian may be more of a fit for the district than the good professor realizes.
It’s been a long time since I could say this, but it looks like Virginia Republicans are finally understanding what they did to themselves over the last seven years, and that is a very good thing.
