Comments on: Fun with maps http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/07/17/fun-with-maps/ hide the decline Tue, 29 Dec 2009 15:07:45 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Doug Mataconis http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/07/17/fun-with-maps/#comment-2929 Doug Mataconis Fri, 18 Jul 2008 12:30:37 +0000 http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/?p=1081#comment-2929 Ron, The most recent NH poll, which is about a month old, had Obama ahead by double digits: http://tinyurl.com/6mdxct Ron,

The most recent NH poll, which is about a month old, had Obama ahead by double digits:

http://tinyurl.com/6mdxct

]]> By: Ron http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/07/17/fun-with-maps/#comment-2928 Ron Fri, 18 Jul 2008 11:13:55 +0000 http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/?p=1081#comment-2928 Just curious, you don't see New Hampshire as competitive this year? Just curious, you don’t see New Hampshire as competitive this year?

]]> By: Doug Mataconis http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/07/17/fun-with-maps/#comment-2920 Doug Mataconis Thu, 17 Jul 2008 21:46:27 +0000 http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/?p=1081#comment-2920 DJ, Just to clarify, I do see Ohio as competitive and would have shaded it weak Dem state if the program allowed for it, but, in the end, I think Obama is going to pick up the Buckeye State based on two factors: 1. The economy and the fact that Ohio in particular has been hurt badly over the past 4 years. 2. The fact that the Ohio GOP is in pretty bad shape right now thanks to the fiasco that the was the reign of Bob Taft and his cronies. DJ,

Just to clarify, I do see Ohio as competitive and would have shaded it weak Dem state if the program allowed for it, but, in the end, I think Obama is going to pick up the Buckeye State based on two factors:

1. The economy and the fact that Ohio in particular has been hurt badly over the past 4 years.

2. The fact that the Ohio GOP is in pretty bad shape right now thanks to the fiasco that the was the reign of Bob Taft and his cronies.

]]> By: Doug Mataconis http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/07/17/fun-with-maps/#comment-2918 Doug Mataconis Thu, 17 Jul 2008 21:15:42 +0000 http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/?p=1081#comment-2918 MB, Speaking as someone who actually worked on campaigns up there (a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away), I think I can pretty confidently say that the New Jersey GOP is about as disorganized as they come. I mean just look at what happened with the Senate nomination. Dick Zimmer's a good guy, but he's not going to be Lautenberg. And if you can't beat an octogenarian who returned to office thanks to a Democratic scam (remember Toricelli-gate ?) then you aren't going to carry the state for your Presidential candidate. MB,

Speaking as someone who actually worked on campaigns up there (a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away), I think I can pretty confidently say that the New Jersey GOP is about as disorganized as they come.

I mean just look at what happened with the Senate nomination. Dick Zimmer’s a good guy, but he’s not going to be Lautenberg. And if you can’t beat an octogenarian who returned to office thanks to a Democratic scam (remember Toricelli-gate ?) then you aren’t going to carry the state for your Presidential candidate.

]]> By: rightwingliberal http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/07/17/fun-with-maps/#comment-2917 rightwingliberal Thu, 17 Jul 2008 21:01:09 +0000 http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/?p=1081#comment-2917 The Corzine race? Are you kidding me? No one thought the GOP ha a chance with Corzine, it wasn't until after the election (when that vote was far closer than any poll projected), that people decided that maybe the GOP nominee would have had a chance if he'd been better funded. The Corzine race? Are you kidding me? No one thought the GOP ha a chance with Corzine, it wasn’t until after the election (when that vote was far closer than any poll projected), that people decided that maybe the GOP nominee would have had a chance if he’d been better funded.

]]> By: MB http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/07/17/fun-with-maps/#comment-2916 MB Thu, 17 Jul 2008 20:56:26 +0000 http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/?p=1081#comment-2916 Hrm. Not the most convincing case for NJ goes to McCain, but I guess that's it. (FWIW, there definitely was talk in 2000, esp. w/ the Corzine race.) I was just wondering if NJ Republicans had somehow gotten their act together while I wasn't looking. There may well be some natural fit with the GOP there, but the local party seems to be committed to making sure we'll never find out. Hrm. Not the most convincing case for NJ goes to McCain, but I guess that’s it. (FWIW, there definitely was talk in 2000, esp. w/ the Corzine race.) I was just wondering if NJ Republicans had somehow gotten their act together while I wasn’t looking. There may well be some natural fit with the GOP there, but the local party seems to be committed to making sure we’ll never find out.

]]> By: Doug Mataconis http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/07/17/fun-with-maps/#comment-2915 Doug Mataconis Thu, 17 Jul 2008 19:48:34 +0000 http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/?p=1081#comment-2915 Even if McCain ends up winning a state like N.C., the fact that it could be more hotly contested in November than it should be will have an impact on other states if it forces the campaign --- which already is at a fundraising disadvantage that seems unlikely to disappear --- to spend time and money in states that it should not have to worry about while Obama is free to spend money in places like Virginia. Even if McCain ends up winning a state like N.C., the fact that it could be more hotly contested in November than it should be will have an impact on other states if it forces the campaign — which already is at a fundraising disadvantage that seems unlikely to disappear — to spend time and money in states that it should not have to worry about while Obama is free to spend money in places like Virginia.

]]> By: rightwingliberal http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/07/17/fun-with-maps/#comment-2914 rightwingliberal Thu, 17 Jul 2008 19:15:53 +0000 http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/?p=1081#comment-2914 I'll agree NC is close, but McCain's never trailed there, and Rasmussen has him ahead in OH (albeit by only 1). You'll also note that I did not out ND in the McCain column, although I do think it will fall his way. As for New Jersey, I have two reasons: 1) It went the wrong way during Obama's post--clinching "bounce," and 2) McCain is not a Southern evangelical (New Jerseyans are not fond of those folks, as we both know, Doug). I’ll agree NC is close, but McCain’s never trailed there, and Rasmussen has him ahead in OH (albeit by only 1). You’ll also note that I did not out ND in the McCain column, although I do think it will fall his way.

As for New Jersey, I have two reasons: 1) It went the wrong way during Obama’s post–clinching “bounce,” and 2) McCain is not a Southern evangelical (New Jerseyans are not fond of those folks, as we both know, Doug).

]]> By: Doug Mataconis http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/07/17/fun-with-maps/#comment-2911 Doug Mataconis Thu, 17 Jul 2008 18:48:40 +0000 http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/?p=1081#comment-2911 James, Right now, PA isn't a contest: http://tinyurl.com/5hef3z James,

Right now, PA isn’t a contest:

http://tinyurl.com/5hef3z

]]> By: Doug Mataconis http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/07/17/fun-with-maps/#comment-2910 Doug Mataconis Thu, 17 Jul 2008 18:47:32 +0000 http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/?p=1081#comment-2910 McCain does well in New Jersey primarily because of his association with Giuliani. Factor in expected large turnout in areas like Newark, Camden, Trenton, Plainfield and other areas where African-Americans make a large portion of the population along with the fact that the New Jersey Republican Party has a pretty sucky field operation and a Senate candidate that was basically a last-minute fill-in, and the odds of McCain winning go down considerably. And, as I noted in my comment to James, McCain's has more problems on the ground right now than Obama does. He's behind in Montana and North Dakota (!) according to the latest polls, in a statistical dead heat in Indiana (!!), and facing what look like close races in Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia. McCain does well in New Jersey primarily because of his association with Giuliani.

Factor in expected large turnout in areas like Newark, Camden, Trenton, Plainfield and other areas where African-Americans make a large portion of the population along with the fact that the New Jersey Republican Party has a pretty sucky field operation and a Senate candidate that was basically a last-minute fill-in, and the odds of McCain winning go down considerably.

And, as I noted in my comment to James, McCain’s has more problems on the ground right now than Obama does. He’s behind in Montana and North Dakota (!) according to the latest polls, in a statistical dead heat in Indiana (!!), and facing what look like close races in Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia.

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