Blame Doug Mataconis for pointing me to the Predict November site. Armed only with instinct and the latest Rasmussen polls, I came up with this:
Unlike Doug, I see OH and NJ as competitive. Even as Obama solidified the nomination for the Democrats and had is now deflated “bounce,” his lead shrank in New Jersey and McCain stayed on the right side of a statistical dead heat in the Buckeye State.
The way I see it, McCain needs to win Ohio and Virginia. From there, it’s either shore up the west (Colorado, Nevada, and either North Dakota or Montana), or take the risk and go all-in in New Jersey (he’d still need one more state, but I’m guessing ND will fall his way).
In the twenty years I’ve been following politics, every presidential race has a WTF state (as in “What the F***?), a state that goes the wrong way for reasons no one understands at the time (it may or may not make more sense later). In 1988, that was Maryland, which Bush somehow carried despite a Democratic advantage so strong that it was one of six states that went Jimmy Carter’s way in 1980. In 1992, the Perot effect created more than a few WTF candidates, but I think Montana was the most surprising (Clinton is the only Democrat since LBJ to win there). In 1996, it was Arizona (not even LBJ could carry Arizona, but Clinton did). West Virginia edged out Tennessee for the honor in 2000 (Al Gore’s home state had a history of electing Republicans in close contests, WV hadn’t done that since 1916). Four years later, even with the red-blue divide nicely predicting almost every state in the union, Bush still pulled an unexpected upset in New Mexico. Looking back, though, most of the WTF moments can be easily explained (Perot for Montana ‘92; demagoguery on Social Security for Arizona ‘96; social issues and anti-radical environmentalism for West Virginia ‘00; and Bush’s surprisingly strong showing among Hispanic voters for New Mexico ‘04).
This year, I’m thinking New Jersey fits the bill. President Bush cut his 2000 deficit by more than half (the 5th biggest gain for him in 2004), and McCain is an even better fit for the Garden State. Moreover, before our politics re-oriented toward the cultural divide that culminated in the red-blue split, New Jersey was the most Republican state in the northeast (besides New Hampshire). I think it could be again.
July 17, 2008 at 1:06 pm |
I think your map is more accurate than Doug’s. Why isn’t PA gray instead of or with NJ?
July 17, 2008 at 1:54 pm |
Why NJ? This gets said every cycle, and every cycle NJ goes reliably Dem. What’s different now?
July 17, 2008 at 2:07 pm |
I don’t remember it being said in 1996 or 2000. There was talk of it in 2004, but I think Bush was not the best fit for NJ. McCain is a much better fit for it.
July 17, 2008 at 2:42 pm |
James,
Which part ? Current polls have Obama ahead in Ohio and PA (and NJ), while McCain is barely holding on in supposedly reliable Republican states like North Carolina, Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, and Indiana.
If McCain wins New Jersey and loses Virginia, it’s essentially a wash. And if he can’t hold onto a state like Indiana then he’s essentially screwed just like Dole was in 96.
July 17, 2008 at 2:47 pm |
McCain does well in New Jersey primarily because of his association with Giuliani.
Factor in expected large turnout in areas like Newark, Camden, Trenton, Plainfield and other areas where African-Americans make a large portion of the population along with the fact that the New Jersey Republican Party has a pretty sucky field operation and a Senate candidate that was basically a last-minute fill-in, and the odds of McCain winning go down considerably.
And, as I noted in my comment to James, McCain’s has more problems on the ground right now than Obama does. He’s behind in Montana and North Dakota (!) according to the latest polls, in a statistical dead heat in Indiana (!!), and facing what look like close races in Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia.
July 17, 2008 at 2:48 pm |
James,
Right now, PA isn’t a contest:
http://tinyurl.com/5hef3z
July 17, 2008 at 3:15 pm |
I’ll agree NC is close, but McCain’s never trailed there, and Rasmussen has him ahead in OH (albeit by only 1). You’ll also note that I did not out ND in the McCain column, although I do think it will fall his way.
As for New Jersey, I have two reasons: 1) It went the wrong way during Obama’s post–clinching “bounce,” and 2) McCain is not a Southern evangelical (New Jerseyans are not fond of those folks, as we both know, Doug).
July 17, 2008 at 3:48 pm |
Even if McCain ends up winning a state like N.C., the fact that it could be more hotly contested in November than it should be will have an impact on other states if it forces the campaign — which already is at a fundraising disadvantage that seems unlikely to disappear — to spend time and money in states that it should not have to worry about while Obama is free to spend money in places like Virginia.
July 17, 2008 at 4:56 pm |
Hrm. Not the most convincing case for NJ goes to McCain, but I guess that’s it. (FWIW, there definitely was talk in 2000, esp. w/ the Corzine race.) I was just wondering if NJ Republicans had somehow gotten their act together while I wasn’t looking. There may well be some natural fit with the GOP there, but the local party seems to be committed to making sure we’ll never find out.
July 17, 2008 at 5:01 pm |
The Corzine race? Are you kidding me? No one thought the GOP ha a chance with Corzine, it wasn’t until after the election (when that vote was far closer than any poll projected), that people decided that maybe the GOP nominee would have had a chance if he’d been better funded.
July 17, 2008 at 5:15 pm |
MB,
Speaking as someone who actually worked on campaigns up there (a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away), I think I can pretty confidently say that the New Jersey GOP is about as disorganized as they come.
I mean just look at what happened with the Senate nomination. Dick Zimmer’s a good guy, but he’s not going to be Lautenberg. And if you can’t beat an octogenarian who returned to office thanks to a Democratic scam (remember Toricelli-gate ?) then you aren’t going to carry the state for your Presidential candidate.
July 17, 2008 at 5:46 pm |
DJ,
Just to clarify, I do see Ohio as competitive and would have shaded it weak Dem state if the program allowed for it, but, in the end, I think Obama is going to pick up the Buckeye State based on two factors:
1. The economy and the fact that Ohio in particular has been hurt badly over the past 4 years.
2. The fact that the Ohio GOP is in pretty bad shape right now thanks to the fiasco that the was the reign of Bob Taft and his cronies.
July 18, 2008 at 7:13 am |
Just curious, you don’t see New Hampshire as competitive this year?
July 18, 2008 at 8:30 am |
Ron,
The most recent NH poll, which is about a month old, had Obama ahead by double digits:
http://tinyurl.com/6mdxct