About eight months ago, after the last supposedly realigning election in Virginia, I debunked some myths about political history in the Old Dominion. The dean of Virginia Virtucon proceeds further in that vein:
At least at the statewide level, Virginia has been a “Purple State” since the 1970s when Republicans finally started to actually win some races. If anything, the GOP’s so-called “dominance” in the late ’90s is an aberration. So long as Virginia Democrats run center-right campaigns, they are competitive statewide (see Creigh “Dirty” Deeds’ race for A.G. in 2005 for yet another example.)
With the exception of presidential elections, by no stretch of the imagination should Virginia be called a “Red State,” nor on the other hand is it accurate to say that Virginia is “trending Purple” or ” turning Blue.” Virginia today is pretty much where it has been over the past 35 years. But make no mistake, do not confuse the willingness of Virginia voters to consider voting for a Democrat with a broad acceptance of liberalism. One need look no further than the recent utter rejection of liberal Leslie Byrne in Northern Virginia in a Democrat-ick primary to understand this distinction.
I would also note that Virginia voters have seen their Republican Party stray very badly from their limited government, low-tax principles. Not even George Allen was willing to run on his astonishingly successful record – which is actually what did him in. The only candidate unaffected by all of this (George W. Bush - at least he was in 2004), just happens to be the only Republican at the top of the ticket to defeat a Democrat in this state in the 21st Century. That’s hardly a coincidence.
For McCain and Gilmore, the lesson from this is simple: stick to limited government and low taxes, and you can win. Stray into Howell-land, and you will lose.
