MSM has been doing its usual banged-up job of analysis for last weekend’s Republican state convention. The latest to to join the blind mice are the editors of the Richmond Times-Dispatch (it should be a clue that perhaps you jumped the shark when Marty Williams agrees with you, but I digress).
What seems to have spooked the RTD is the strong presence of the Prince William candidates (Bob Marshall and Jeff Frederick). The Richmond paper sees it like this (same link):
Only about 3,000 delegates showed up for the confab that (1) nominated Jim Gilmore by 1 point over Bob Marshall and (2) ousted a party chairman known for consensus building. The assemblage in no way reflected the party as a whole . . . Marshall came close primarily because few bothered to participate in the process. The results sound an alarm: The GOP mainstream must reassert itself.
With all due respect, this reads like it was written by someone who has never travelled north of the Rappahannock River – ever. Marshall completely dominated Northern Virginia at the convention; he carried the region by better than two to one. The most telling county was Fairfax County, the epitome of “the GOP mainstream” as conventional wisdom claims it to be. Marshall won Fairfax by better than 3 to 2 – and there aren’t that many social conservatives in Fairfax County (where, I might add, turnout was so high they ran out of chairs).
The editors further reveal their ignorance with this nonsense:
The issues have changed since Ronald Reagan dominated national politics, and it would be a mistake simply to re-enact the specific planks that comprised his platform.
The irony is breathtaking.
It is the Times-Dispatch and its cheering section that are stuck in the past. They would like us to completely forget and ignore the past eighteen months, when Bill Howell, Ed Gillespie et al (RTD included, if memory serves) foisted upon the populace the disastrous HB3202 (i.e., the transportation tax hike of 2007). After the egregious policy became law, most of the GOP elite (and the RTD) when back to sleep, assured that the GOP would be rewarded for “doing something.”
Instead, Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads punished the party severely, each section handed over two Republican seats in each chamber to the Democrats; our Senate majority was gone, and our House majority was halved.
Still, outside of those two regions, lazy politicians, pundits, and (ahem) reporters took the easy way out and followed the conventional wisdom about NoVa and HR turning blue. Thus the fact that opponents of the tax hike actually did well in NoVa was ignored – except by the opponents themselves.
Who were the two NoVa politicians who benefited from their opposition to HB3202 while no one else noticed? Bob Marshall and Jeff Frederick.
It was not some hearkening to days past that brought Marshall to the cusp of victory and Frederick to the Chairmanship, it was their opposition to HB3202. Marshall in particular would never have come close to the nomination had he not led the fight to wipe out the regional taxes in court.
If the RTD had actually taken the effort to see what was going on up here (OK, I’m a bit south of the NVTA zone, but my office is up there), they might not have been caught so flat-footed by what happened (then again, even Larry Sabato missed the fire out there from his ivory tower in Charlottesville).
More to the point, Bob Marshall is not going away (this already obvious for Frederick, who won his race). He is the voice of activists across the state who are sick and tired of the “GOP mainstream” demanding we swallow tax increase after tax increase. I have watched the GOP Senate caucus in particular pass four different tax increase in four years; while the House caucus knuckled under to one and authored another.
To give you, dear reader (plus Marty and the RTD) just how bad that is, consider this: New Jersey Democrats have been more friendly to the taxpayer in the 21st century than the RPV.
That’s why Marshall, one of the few who has always opposed tax increases, did so well; it’s also why Hager, who made no effort to break with this sordid past, was shown the door.
June 8, 2008 at 6:23 pm |
I will say this about Marshall’s strength in Fairfax. 85% of what you say is correct, but there is the Tom Davis factor. Gilmore’s defeat of Tom at state central left a bitter taste in a lot of Tom’s backer’s mouths. Many of his staff and supporters got motivated to beat Gilmore, thus backing Marshall, whom many genuinely like. It was an odd marriage. But some of Marshall’s support in Fairfax came from angry Davis supporters.
June 8, 2008 at 6:54 pm |
A lot of Marshall’s support in Loudoun, Fairfax, and PWC comes from the slow growth folks. Marshall has been a stalwart supporter of limiting growth since it inevitably leads to higher taxes and bigger government. If more Republicans took this truly conservative position the party would be much better off in high growth areas.
But in a somewhat ironic twist, Pat McSweeney, one of Marshall’s big supporters, is apparently a tool for funnelling money to pro-growth candidates through his Virginia Conservative Alliance PAC (see my past posts on this). McSweeney is a hypocrite out for himself.
June 9, 2008 at 12:35 am |
Well done, DJ. The problem for Republicans in Virginia since 2001 has been elected Republicans in Virginia and DC.
We’ll see if that remains so after the transportation session on June 23rd.
I heard that recently some new polling was done on regional government in HR/Tidewater. Supposedly, opposition to Regional Government has grown another 12%. But that extra 12% just represents the peon voters, The People.