Is a statewide tax referendum coming?

The House Republicans in Richmond may try to put Kaine’s tax increase up to a referendum vote this fall (Washington Post blog).  No less than House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith is floating the idea.

Tim Craig (author of the WaPo post) sees the GOP strategy this way (same link as above, emphasis added):

In Virginia, it’s not even certain that a tax referendum would be approved in Northern Virginia, much less more conservative Hampton Roads or the rest of the state.

A transportation tax referendum could pass Fairfax County this year, where residents easily rejected the 2002 referendum. But it probably would be a close vote in the outer suburbs of Loudoun and Prince William, two counties key to Democrats’ prospects of winning statewide.

But calls for a referendum, even if the GOP knows Kaine won’t go along, might become a secret weapon for House Republicans looking to limit the fallout from their no-tax stance.

If the GOP offers a referendum as a solution but Kaine and Senate Majority Leader Richard L. Saslaw (D-Fairfax) block it, House Republicans will have cover going into 2009. Democrats will have trouble convincing many voters that Republicans are obstructionists when they are willing to let the ultimate form of democracy decide.

And if, by some small chance, Democrats agree to put the issue on the ballot this year or next, Republicans can rally their base to the polls, as they did in 2006 when they backed a referendum to ban same-sex marriage and civil unions.

Personally, I don’t like the referendum idea.  For one, if the anti-tax-hike position were so popular, Republicans should be able to run on it.  In fact, it is popular, but you need to work hard to make the case and get out yor voters.  Jim Parmalee and Jim Bowden are willing to do that (and did it in 2002), but Bill Howell and Morgan Griffith aren’t.  Thus, they want the two Jims to do it again.

That said, it may be the only way we can avoid a tax hike this year.  So far, we haven’t seen a lot of leadership out of the Richmond Republicans on this.  As for our statewide officers, Bolling has been a  mixed bag, while McDonnell made a decent first step.  If McDonnell is prepared to take more steps, we could avoid this discussion altogether.

Otherwise, it’s a tax hike or a referendum (or to be precise, a series of referenda, as Hampton Roads and NoVa will have regional tax hikes under Kaine’s plan) - and I’ll take the latter if I have to do so.