Predictions

Looking forward to tomorrow, I see one election going as expected, and one major surprise.  We’ll start with the predictable one.

Indiana: Survey USA has Clinton’s lead in double-digits (Below the Beltway), which I think is a precursor to what we’ve seen in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania – late deciders breaking for Clinton.  Therefore, I say, Clinton wins going away.

North Carolina: I still believe this state will decide the Democratic nominee, so this will not make supporters of the Audacity of Hype happy, but the polls are telling me that Clinton is doing better than expected – much better.  Also, there happen to be just enough undecided white voters to make up the gap (Insider Advantage).  That plus the usual (if unfortunate) Bradley/Wilder effect means Clinton scores the upset. 

This puts her in prime position to sweep the rest of the states (expect perhaps Oregon), end up with more popular votes than Obama (with or possibly without Florida), and win the nomination.

Democrats will feel better for the first time in a long while, having finally cut the Gordian knot – until someone notices that all of those questions about Madison Guaranty suddenly become relevant again.