How to defeat Mark Warner

Riley at Virginia Virtucon and Brian Kirwin at Bearing Drift are taking aim at Mark Warner, and not a moment too soon.  They take somewhat different angles - Riley focusing on Warner’s complete lack of a record (besides the massive tax hike of 2004) and Kirwin looking to pin Warner down on every issue under the sun.  Neither of which are the ones I would take, but both have merit, and it’s waaaay to early to dismiss one or the other without road-testing them.

Still, I believe the way to defeat Mark Warner is to use his record (i.e., the tax hike) against him.

Warner’s entire political career has been defined by the tax hike he was able to enact without ending his political career.  However, Warner was only able to pull it off because the Senate GOP caucus was ready to increase taxes twice as much as he was.  Therefore, most Virginians simply assume Warner was being “reasonable” - and probably came across as far more frugal than the spendthrift gang of Chichester, Potts, et al.

So, how can the Republican nominee (and this avenue is open to Gilmore or Marshall) use Warner’s signature achievement against him?  Three things must be done, IMHO.

Emphasize the real facts of the 2004-6 budget: Mark Warner insisted that the state was facing a budget crisis that made a tax increase necessary.  In reality, the 2004-6 biennial budget was over $10 billion higher than the previous one - an increase of more then 19.6%.  That means Warner managed to blow through $8.6 billion in addition to the new tax revenues generated by the 2004 tax hike ($1.4 billion).  As for as I know, no one has ever asked Warner where that money went.

When Warner finds Republicans who will defend the tax hike, find Democrats who won’t: We all know that Chichester, Potts, et al will rush to Warner’s defense on the tax hike, even if they won’t endorse Warner outright (although Potts might).  Without a response, it will look like Warner had the entire Democratic Party behind him in 2004.  He didn’t.

In fact, one of Warner’s biggest critics on the 2004 tax hike was none other than his last Democratic predecessor, Doug Wilder.  So long as he doesn’t have to actually endorse the GOP nominee, I’m sure Wilder would love to make it abundantly clear that the 2004 tax hike was not necessary (remember, the commission Warner created to find budget savings - and then ignored - bears Wilder’s name).  Furthermore, a former Democratic governor defending the GOP nominee on this issue will be worth more than all of Warner’s GOP Senators put together.

Furthermore, it will cease to be a Republican/Democrat argument and become a conservative/liberal argument instead, which is exactly what Gilmore or Marshall will need.

Finally, throw the GOP legislature under the bus: Luckily for the GOP, either candidate (Gilmore, who as Governor ruffled a lot of feathers, and Marshall, the gadfly of the House caucus) is in prime position to do just that.  The voters made abundantly clear last year what they thought of Messrs. Howell and Stosch.  They’re likely hoping no one even mentions them during this campaign, but they are an easy - and deserving - target.  Odds are the party base will be more energized, not less, by a nominee willing to criticize them when necessary.

In short, Mark Warner won in 2001, and succeeded afterwards, because he refused to be defined by his party.  However, there is a down side to that, in that other Democrats won’t feel as obligated to defend him 24/7.  The opportunity is there for the GOP nominee to out-Warner Warner, reach out to limited government Democrats (there aren’t many, but just about all of them are here in VA), and use them to build credibility as a right-of-center alternative - even if said Dems just agree with the nominee on the issues without endorsing him.

This is how I believe we can defeat Mark Warner this fall - and what’s more, I believe it is an avenue open to both major GOP candidates.