Operation Chaos prediction

Rush Limbaugh has ordered a “pause” in Operation Chaos (Jim Geraghty):

RUSH: Ladies and gentlemen, I am calling an operational pause in Operation Chaos. We have a week to figure out now what’s best to do. If your state still allows voter registration, keep that up, continue to register as a Democrat in upcoming Operation Chaos primaries. I think it’s too late in Indiana and North Carolina. Oregon, last day is today. There are other states coming down the pike, and Puerto Rico. But I’m calling an operational pause, and I will tell you why. My first gut reaction, my instinct, in listening to the audio sound bites of Obama today throwing Jeremiah Wright off the planet, he didn’t throw him under the bus, he put him in the space shuttle and he sent him to the space station so he can pal around with the Russians that are up there. Then I watched during the bottom-of-the-hour break here, I decided to watch the Drive-By Media coverage of this, because it became obvious to me — see, I read the stitches on the fastball; I can read between the lines, and I know that most of the Drive-Bys are in the tank for Obama…

…My gut reaction, after the audio sound bites, was to issue new orders, because I saw, you know, AP/Ipsos poll has Hillary up over McCain by nine points, 50-41. My gut reaction here, after hearing Obama, was to issue orders changing directives, i.e., vote Obama in remaining primaries. But I’m holding back. That’s why I’m calling an operational pause. Because I want to see what the Drive-Bys are going to do and I want to see how the superdelegates are affected by this. You can’t vote in North Carolina and Indiana ’til Tuesday anyway, so there’s really no pause. It’s not as though the election is tomorrow. I just wanted you to know your commanding officers are eagerly, diligently, and effectively planning the next strategy here, based on this speech and the reaction to it.

This comes as its effect becomes crystal-clear in Indiana (Howey Politics, h/t Below the Beltway, emphasis added):

According to the Howey-Gauge Poll conducted April 23-24, entirely after the Clinton Pennsylvania primary victory, Hoosier Democrats are evenly split at 46-46 percent.

The fascinating wrinkle comes when the poll reveals that the race could be determined by the 9 percent of independent voters expected to participate, and 10 percent Republican crossover.

. . .

There appears to be two kinds of Republicans: the “Obamacans” as the Illinois senator likes to call them – earnest Republicans deeply disappointed in their own party’s performance on the budget, economy, social issues and the Iraq War – and the Rush Limbaugh Republicans who are planning to crossover to vote for Sen. Clinton because they perceive her to be the weakest rival to U.S. Sen. John McCain in the November election.

Howey-Gauge shows that self-identified Republicans favor Clinton 50-44 percent, while independents favor Obama 54-38 percent. “The Democratic primary is going to be decided by non-Democrats,” said Gauge Market Research pollster Holly Davis. “To be determined is which group – Republicans or independents – are going to decide this race.” An indicator as to the kind of havoc Republican voters could create comes on the Iraq War issue. Those favoring immediate withdrawal favor Obama 49-46 percent. Those favoring the current troop levels favor Clinton 58-39 percent, but, Davis notes, “That number is strongly influenced by Republican crossovers.”

I’m going out on a limb here, but based on where I see things going on the Democratic side, I’m guessing Rush will send out the following “orders.”

Indiana theatre: Vote Clinton.

North Carolina theatre: Vote Obama.

Remaining state theatre: Stand by.

I also predict (reserving the right to change this up to Tuesday morning), that the actual state primaries will break that way as well (Clinton wins Indiana; Obama wins North Carolina) – meaning Rush will have had more influence on the Democratic nomination than he did on the Republican nomination.

Talk about interesting times.