I usually expect penetrating and insightful posts over at Bearing Drift; that’s why J.R.’s post on the Brownlee-Cuccinelli race is so baffling. We’ll start with the most glaring errors:
First, should Sen. Cuccinelli move to AG, this almost certainly gives the seat over to Democrats, further reducing GOP numbers in the Senate to 18, and making redistricting in 2010 a very ugly affair between the Democrat-controlled Senate and Republican-controlled House.
It saddens me to see yet another blogger outside Northern Virginia fall for the No-Republican-can-win-up-there nonsense. Perhaps a Fimian victory will shake them loose. More to the point, however, 21 is no weaker a majority on redistricting than 22 is. When it comes to drawing districts, a majority of one is more than plenty. Besides, the possibility of having no Northern Virginian candidate on the GOP ticket could do just as much damage on the House side – and if the House majority goes, it’s lights out on redistricting.
However, should Cuccinelli maintain his seat and the very wealthy, mature, ticked-off (Sen. Whipple, this is for you), and recently betrothed Sen. Colgan decide to retire, then it is possible in 2009 for the Senate to go back into REPUBLICAN CONTROL, making Lt. Gov. Bolling the tie-breaking vote on all redistricting plans in the Senate.
Um, JR, Colgan would have to resign to get that seat open next year, and I doubt he’ll want to give up being chairman of the Finance Committee As for Whipple’s seat, it includes Arlington, and that really is a Republican wasteland – we have no shot there. Facts are facts, the Senate is gone, period. Denying Cuccinelli the AG slot won’t change that.
As for J.R.’s assertion that “prosecutors have always faired well as the GOP nominee for Attorney General,” I don’t quite see the same history. The GOP has had five attorneys general. Three indeed served as prosecutors, but only one (Gilmore) actually had that role while running for AG. Jerry Kilgore had been a Cabinet Secretary for four years, while Bob McDonnell was a Delegate for fourteen. The two non-prosecutors (Marshall Coleman and Mark Earley), were State Senators when they ran.
Now, I’m not saying Cuccinelli will be a better candidate or AG than Brownlee; I know nothing about the latter, and this year’s Senate race should have taught all of us the value of keeping our powder dry. I just think we seriously miss the point if we focus on the fantasy of recapturing the Senate before 2011. The prosecutor angle is a little stronger, but is it enough by itself to counter Cuccinelli’s record in the State Senate? I’m not sure. We’ll find out soon enough.
April 18, 2008 at 5:23 am |
Rumor I heard is that when redistricting does come, Sens. Petersen and Barker are going to throw Republican precints into Cucinelli’s district to protect themselves. They might move him into parts of Manasas as well. Furthermore, there are several real good Republicans in Ken’s district that could more than handle a campaign to win that seat.
Secondly, if you want to focus on a Democrat seat to win, its not Mary Margaret Whipple – its Toddy Puller.
April 18, 2008 at 8:41 am |
I don’t have a problem with Cuccinelli facing a primary, but what I can’t understand is why there seems to be so much doubt or questions of a about someone who is: 1. a consistent conservative, 2. a guy who wins elections and 3. has a fantastic grassroots organization
It is difficult to survive an election wave and Cuccinelli managed to do it. Is there something wrong with Cuccinelli and I just don’t know it?
May 2, 2008 at 10:53 am |
Cuccinelli is not shy about what he believes–and whether or not you agree with him on everything, this political style rubs some folks the wrong way. But I don’t think taking strong stands on issues means there is something wrong with him.
On the other hand, some might say it is about time we elect an AG who is actually interested in being AG. Most recent AGs–and I’m not speaking about anyone in particular–have started running for Governor the day they were sworn in. The AG is not precluded from running for re-election, but I don’t believe we have had an AG serve two or more terms in the last 25 years.
John Brownlee is a career prosecutor who has shown character and resolve. Moreover, he understands the things an AG could do with the office. See my post of 04/28/08 at http://www.vaquitamlaw.com. Whatever his merits or demerits, Cuccinelli’s strongest card is his strong social conservatism, which does not have a heck of a lot to do with the AGs role, IMHO.