Rush surprises me

He told all Operation Chaos personnel (including in North Carolina) to vote for Clinton (Politico).

If she wins North Carolina, this may very well have won her the nomination.

Yes, you read that right; be ready.

This is an abomination

Did you know the Pentagon (and everyone else in government) can’t use Albertan oil?

It’s true (Arab News, via The Corner):

In an interesting tussle, a virtually unnoticed clause was added almost at the least moment to a US energy bill that bars the government, in particular the Department of Defense, from using Alberta crude because it is deemed unconventional and too dirty.

A provision in the US Carbon Neutral Government Act incorporated into the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 act effectively bars the US government from buying fuels that have greater life-cycle emissions than fuels produced from conventional petroleum sources.

The United States has defined Alberta oilsands as unconventional because the bitumen mined from the ground requires upgrading and refining as opposed to the traditional crude pumped from oil wells.

California Democrat Representative Henry Waxman, chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform and Republican Tom Davis added the clause.  

Keep in mind, Alberta not only has a tremendous amount of oil, it is also the most pro-American province in Canada.  I would argue that Albertans are, by and large, more pro-American than half the blue states in this country.

So I can see Henry Waxman trying to sabotage our friends in Canada, but what is the Emperor of Northern Virginia’s game here?  One resource analyst has a theory (same links):

Some analysts, however, are claiming that the clause was added after some political maneuvering by Saudi Arabia as it is “increasingly threatened” by Canada’s growing market share of oil production.

Strategic resource analyst Paul Michael Wihbey recalling the November OPEC summit, said it was then that for the first time Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi “took a swipe at the oilsands.” He claimed the minister then said “Canada is one of the world’s costliest oil producers and requires high prices to remain viable.”

. . .

“They’re playing hardball … then all of a sudden this legislation pops in, literally a month after these statements were made in November,” noted Wihbey.

Now, we can’t say for certain if the Saudis had a hand in this (and Arab News certainly is skeptical), but it’s almost beside the point.  This is a slap in the face to our neighbor, friend, and ally, and especially galling given just who within Canada (pro-American Alberta) is taking the punch.

The sky is refusing to fall

The new numbers for Gross Domestic Product (econ-speak for “the economy”) are out, and it turns out the recession that supposedly descended upon us over the last six months actually didn’t happen (Associated Press via Yahoo, h/t Shaun Kenney):

The bruised economy limped through the first quarter, growing at just a 0.6 percent pace as housing and credit problems forced people and businesses alike to hunker down.

The country’s economic growth during January through March was the same as in the final three months of last year, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

In other words, the last six months, which numerous economists believed would show a recession, showed no such thing (sidenote-primer: a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP-shrinkage.  Each quarter’s statistics are released a month after the quarter ends, as the Jan-March state were today, and then revised three months later, as the Oct-Dec 2007 stats were).

More intriguingly, despite the Fed’s numerous interest rate cuts and surging prices in oil, gas, and food, inflation actually fell this quarter compared to last quarter.  I didn’t see that one coming at all.

What with the tax rebates, the Feds’ actions taking further hold (especially if it keeps the ARM rates low at reset time), the economic picture could look much better over the course of this year than previously expected – and we all know what that could mean come November.

Two different papers, two different Prince Williams?

Thanks to Riley at Virginia Virtucon for catching this dichotomy in the newspapers that serve the nation’s capital.

Here’s the Washington Post:

Pr. William Softens Policy on Immigration Status Checks

The Prince William County supervisors abolished a key part of the county’s illegal-immigration policy last night by directing police officers to question criminal suspects about their immigration status only after they have been arrested.

Now check out the Washington Times:

Prince William stiffens crackdown on illegals

The Prince William Board of County Supervisors last night approved an addition to its 2-month-old crackdown on illegal immigrants, considered one of the most aggressive in country.

The editorial boards of the Times and the Post have been at odds for years, and that has seeped into the news sections from time to time, but I can’t remember anything this dramatic before (oh, and for the record, I think the Times got it right).

Mr. McDonnell, please do not succumb to Kilgorism

Today is a good day for Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling – no doubt of that.  They won the endorsement of nearly every well-known Republican in the state for 2009 (Bearing Drift, Scott’s Morning Brew, and Virginia Virtucon).  Still, as soon as I saw it, a cold shiver went down my spine, and nothing in the rightosphere’s reaction has made it go away.

See, over the last few years, I have seen annual attempts to “unite the Republican Party in Virginia.”  They have all been followed by the same things: issue-less campaigns, lost leads, surprising (to some) defeats, recriminations, and grudges that go so deep into the next election cycle that the same people try to “bring the party together” and start the cycle all over again.

The first and most obvious of these fiascos came in 2005, when Jerry Kilgore led the state GOP ticket.  The party had just been through a vicious policy battle over taxes – one which became a political battle as several tax-hiking GOP Delegates faces primary challenges.  Kilgore had a choice: accept the division as a reality and pick sides, or make broad and bland “unity” statements that papered over the serious differences.

Kilgore chose the latter, and ended up with a lower percentage of the vote than any GOP nominee for Governor had earned in twenty years.

The next year, Senator George Allen faced a similar problem (albeit for different reasons), and chose the unity, issue-less approach in order to maximize Republican support for his re-election and (if he had won) 2008 presidential campaign.  His attacks on Webb (involving columns and books written more than twenty years ago) fell flat, Allen stumbled, and became the first Republican to lose a U.S. Senate election in a dozen years.

Last year, a panicked GOP legislature cobbled together HB3202.  Their supposed life preserver turned out to be full of cement, and the Democrats won a State Senate majority for the first time since 1991 (the 1995 election led to a 20-20 split).

One can understand why I am concerned.  Of course, now that McDonnell and Bolling are the near-certain nominees, they need not follow this path.  Unfortunately, they each had a role in the HB3202 debacle (however small), and many Virginians who support limited government (including the small-l libertarians who have been voting for the Democrats on social issues), will be watching to see if they repeat that mistake this summer or reverse it.

If they repeat it, they risk a Kilgore redux (hence the post title).

Now, I know to reverse the mistake of the past will be “divisive.”  Numerous Republican leaders will howl and wail.  Still, McDonnell and Bolling can’t possibly have it any worse than Ronald Reagain in 1980 – whose right-wing views were so strident that one of this nomination opponents – John Andersen – actually ran against him in the general election as an independent, and won nearly 7% of the vote.

However, Reagan, buoyed by his strong limited-government principles, still won 51%, carried 44 states, and his coattails gave Republicans their first U.S. Senate majority since in over a quarter-century.

It is my hope that McDonnell avoids the Kilgore model for the Reagan one.  We shall see over the next year.

Operation Chaos prediction

Rush Limbaugh has ordered a “pause” in Operation Chaos (Jim Geraghty):

RUSH: Ladies and gentlemen, I am calling an operational pause in Operation Chaos. We have a week to figure out now what’s best to do. If your state still allows voter registration, keep that up, continue to register as a Democrat in upcoming Operation Chaos primaries. I think it’s too late in Indiana and North Carolina. Oregon, last day is today. There are other states coming down the pike, and Puerto Rico. But I’m calling an operational pause, and I will tell you why. My first gut reaction, my instinct, in listening to the audio sound bites of Obama today throwing Jeremiah Wright off the planet, he didn’t throw him under the bus, he put him in the space shuttle and he sent him to the space station so he can pal around with the Russians that are up there. Then I watched during the bottom-of-the-hour break here, I decided to watch the Drive-By Media coverage of this, because it became obvious to me — see, I read the stitches on the fastball; I can read between the lines, and I know that most of the Drive-Bys are in the tank for Obama…

…My gut reaction, after the audio sound bites, was to issue new orders, because I saw, you know, AP/Ipsos poll has Hillary up over McCain by nine points, 50-41. My gut reaction here, after hearing Obama, was to issue orders changing directives, i.e., vote Obama in remaining primaries. But I’m holding back. That’s why I’m calling an operational pause. Because I want to see what the Drive-Bys are going to do and I want to see how the superdelegates are affected by this. You can’t vote in North Carolina and Indiana ’til Tuesday anyway, so there’s really no pause. It’s not as though the election is tomorrow. I just wanted you to know your commanding officers are eagerly, diligently, and effectively planning the next strategy here, based on this speech and the reaction to it.

This comes as its effect becomes crystal-clear in Indiana (Howey Politics, h/t Below the Beltway, emphasis added):

According to the Howey-Gauge Poll conducted April 23-24, entirely after the Clinton Pennsylvania primary victory, Hoosier Democrats are evenly split at 46-46 percent.

The fascinating wrinkle comes when the poll reveals that the race could be determined by the 9 percent of independent voters expected to participate, and 10 percent Republican crossover.

. . .

There appears to be two kinds of Republicans: the “Obamacans” as the Illinois senator likes to call them – earnest Republicans deeply disappointed in their own party’s performance on the budget, economy, social issues and the Iraq War – and the Rush Limbaugh Republicans who are planning to crossover to vote for Sen. Clinton because they perceive her to be the weakest rival to U.S. Sen. John McCain in the November election.

Howey-Gauge shows that self-identified Republicans favor Clinton 50-44 percent, while independents favor Obama 54-38 percent. “The Democratic primary is going to be decided by non-Democrats,” said Gauge Market Research pollster Holly Davis. “To be determined is which group – Republicans or independents – are going to decide this race.” An indicator as to the kind of havoc Republican voters could create comes on the Iraq War issue. Those favoring immediate withdrawal favor Obama 49-46 percent. Those favoring the current troop levels favor Clinton 58-39 percent, but, Davis notes, “That number is strongly influenced by Republican crossovers.”

I’m going out on a limb here, but based on where I see things going on the Democratic side, I’m guessing Rush will send out the following “orders.”

Indiana theatre: Vote Clinton.

North Carolina theatre: Vote Obama.

Remaining state theatre: Stand by.

I also predict (reserving the right to change this up to Tuesday morning), that the actual state primaries will break that way as well (Clinton wins Indiana; Obama wins North Carolina) – meaning Rush will have had more influence on the Democratic nomination than he did on the Republican nomination.

Talk about interesting times.

Once a cipher, always a cipher

My Congressman is in the news (Media General via Jim Bowden):

As his colleagues debated a moratorium on congressionally-directed budget earmarks this month, Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., requested $132.5 million for local projects.

Jim tends to prefer the deadpan satire of repeating word-for-word reports of Wittman’s actions.  For more cutting is Tim Watson (I’m Surrounded By Idiots, emphasis in original):

. . . from a document distributed by the Stafford County Republican Committee (.DOC file) touting Wittman’s “conservative record” (snort):

Rep. Wittman has joined the members of the Republican Conference to demand reform of earmarks by calling for a Joint Select Committee on Earmark Reform and an earmark moratorium until additional guidelines are recommended.

And now, from the Media General News Service:

As his colleagues debated a moratorium on congressionally-directed budget earmarks this month, Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., requested $132.5 million for local projects.

[...]

In his first budget cycle, Wittman sought funding for 52 projects. The largest is $17.5 million to replace a 40-year-old missile support facility at the Navy’s Dahlgren Division in King George Co.

Uh…didn’t he just say he was going to cut defense spending?

Did he vote for it before he voted against it?

[...]

Side-stepping the intra-party debate over new House earmark policies, Wittman said he made sure his requests were supported by local agencies, contained non-federal funding, and pledged to publish his requests on his Web site.

“What we try to do is step out in front and develop our own policy and be sure we are transparent,” Wittman said.

Funny, he hasn’t posted the information on either of his websites yet (Google search of his official website and his campaign website). I guess the media gets a list of his earmarks, but us lowly serfs in the First Congressional District don’t. And how exactly would a federal earmark not contain federal funding? Continued:

But critics said it would have been better for him to not participate in the earmark process at all.
“He’s not starting off very well,” said Paige. “If he’s already climbing on the runaway train that is the earmark culture in Congress, he’s going in the wrong direction.”

Critics also say the earmark process increases spending, because lawmakers support each other’s pet projects.

Wittman said he will suggest “spending reductions in other places to offset spending for (his) earmarks.”

Um, yeah, sure, I believe that. Apparently he’s going to reduce spending by increasing spending to pay for people’s health insurance in the tune of $5,000,000 in FY09 and 10, increasing to $10,000,000 in FY11 and 12, and hitting $20,000,000 in FY13 as a cosponsor of H.R.5405. (I must have missed the part of the United States Constitution that includes the provision to pay for people’s health insurance.)

Many of us who preferred someone else at the 1st District Convention (hereafter The Night of the Long Dull Spoons) were convinced that Mr. Wittman would give us plenty of, well, blogging material.  On that, at least, he did not disappoint, but believe me, I’d have preferred disappointment on that one.

Remember her?

Lest you think Obama is the only Democrat who is a problem (Club for Growth):

Hillary Clinton talks about changing Washington, but it is clear the New York Senator has no intention of making good on her word. When it comes to keeping the congressional pork factory churning, Senator Clinton is one of Washington’s biggest culprits.

The proof is in the pork: News reports reveal that Hillary Clinton has requested a whopping $2.3 billion in earmarks for the Fiscal Year 2009. This staggering number is nearly triple the largest amount of pork projects received by any Senator this year.

Yikes!

How would you define “spiritual mentor”?

The Audacity of Hype on Reverend Jeremiah Wright this afternoon (after the Magical Misery Tour – Jim Geraghty):

He was never my quote unquote, spiritual adviser, my quote unquote spiritual mentor, he was my pastor.

Yes, yes, dear voter, make sure you understand that.  Wright was never a “spiritual mentor” to the Audacity of Hype.

Of course, this begs the question: what is a “spiritual mentor”?  I would humbly submit that for most, this description would fit the bill:

The man I met more than twenty years ago is a man who helped introduce me to my Christian faith, a man who spoke to me about our obligations to love one another; to care for the sick and lift up the poor. He is a man who served his country as a U.S. Marine; who has studied and lectured at some of the finest universities and seminaries in the country, and who for over thirty years led a church that serves the community by doing God’s work here on Earth – by housing the homeless, ministering to the needy, providing day care services and scholarships and prison ministries, and reaching out to those suffering from HIV/AIDS.

This, of course, was how the Audacity of Hype described Reverend Wright in the much-ballyhooed “Philadelphia speech,” i.e., before Wright’s Magical Misery tour.

Geraghty (whose link proved the excerpt above) put it best, “Obama’s Philadelphia Speech Looks Ridiculous Now.”  Indeed.

Will anyone speak for the taxpayers at the special session?

Just before I skipped town for my sister’s wedding, Governor Kaine called for another special session on transportation funding (AP via Daily Press), meaning we can look forward to yet another argument between tax-hiking Democrats and tax-hiking Republicans.  Whether or not we will see a group of lawmakers opposed to any tax increases (i.e., if anyone will join Bob Marshall) remains to be seen.

So far, the tax-hikers are holding – such as they can - to their already vague positions.  Kaine wants a tax increase on car sales, but he is also clearly open to a gas-tax hike (WTOP).  Whatever his plan is, he apparently won’t see it for another week and a half.  Senate Democrats are already on record demanding a gas-tax hike.

Meanwhile, Republican Delegate Chris Cox called Governor Kaine’s projected transportation revenue and spending numbers “alarmist data” (DP).  Yet even he, like the rest of the House GOP leadership, would prefer some sort of regional tax hike.

There is, however, another way – an alternative that would not rely on tax increases at all, but rather download the cost of secondary and subdivision roads where they belong – localities for the former and homeowners for the latter.  The question is, will anyone in the legislature have the courage to present it?  Will anyone (besides Marshall, Mark Cole, Tom Gear, and Johnny Joannou) stand up for the taxpayers?

Or must we pray for a train wreck to avoid a tax hike?

Cross-posted to the Republican Liberty Caucus of Virginia