The tumult that has engulfed Pakistan over the last few months will meet an inflection point with today’s elections. For those of you who didn’t geek out on mathematics, an inflection point is a point of change, from deceleration to acceleration or vice versa. I’m not sure which one we’ll see.
First of all, there is the question of how the Pakistani people vote. I’m guessing the following division will occur: PPP (party of the late Benazir Bhutto) 35-40%, PML-N (party of Nawz Sharif) 25-30%, PML-Q (Musharraf’s party) 15-20%; MMA (the terrorists’ party) 10%; with the rest for smaller parties and independents. For the four regional assemblies, I’m guessing the PPP wins two, the PML-N wins one, and the MMA wins the other (probably the Northwest Frontier Province).
The second question, just as important, is whether or not the vote will actually be reported honestly. I’m one of the few on this, but I believe it will.
The fact is, Musharraf and his party will be interested in one thing – preventing his impeachment. If the party is in third place, they can actually make sure of this by playing kingmaker. The fact is, Musharraf’s history with Sharif is far more detailed and personal than with the PPP leadership. While the PPP and PML-N have gotten along swimmingly during the campaign, I doubt that will continue past the election. Musharraf can then effectively pick the prime minister, and he won’t pick Sharif or anyone from his party.
Moreover, Musharraf has to know the U.S. is expecting both an honest election and an anti-terrorist government. That means he will have to deal with the democrats – after avoiding them for so long. However, said democrats also know they will have to deal with him to gain credibility in Washington. The PPP leadership understands this far better than the PML-N folks. The best example of this comes from where the leaders spent their time in exile: Bhutto was in London, while Sharif was in Saudi Arabia.
So, and I do understand this is the most optimistic of scenarios, I’m expecting a free election and a PPP/PML-Q coalition. We’ll see how badly wrong I am. After all, to quote Mark Steyn: “Everyone’s an expert on Pakistan, a faraway country of which we know everything. It seems to me a certain humility is appropriate.” Indeed.
