I had addressed this issue briefly here, but with my sparring partner STD and my good friend Jim Beck calling for a brokered convention, I feel I need to devote a post exclusively to explaining why this is such a bad idea.
For starters, both STD and Jim seem to be of the opinion that anyone can be nominated in a brokered convention. While theoretically it is possible, the likelihood of that happening is practically nil. First of all, no one can agree on just who the anonymous nominee should be. I’ve seen Newt Gingrich, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, and a whole slew of names bandied about. The trouble is, just those three names by themselves would set off factional disputes among the delegates at the convention. Then there are the names folks on the rightospehere don’t want to hear, but who would have an equal chance at snagging the nomination (Condoleezza Rice, Rudy Giuliani, Jeb Bush, etc.). The odds that any of them would garner enough delegates just to take on the established candidates (McCain and Huckabee) are slim to none.
Additionally, there is no way either aforementioned candidate will willingly back away from the prize in favor of someone who hasn’t gone through the laborious campaign. Nor should they. The presidential race reveals a number of things; chief among them is the ambition for the job and the willingness to work in order to get it. The previously failed candidates have made it clear they lack the wisdom, drive, or popular support to succeed. Those who chose not to run, for whatever reason, have revealed a lack of drive that could prove fatal in a general election campaign.
Finally, the only way we get to a brokered convention is for Huckabee to garner enough delegates to block McCain. Does anyone seriously think that Huckabee (who would need to win more than 700 more delegates to pull this off) will simply stand aside? Of course not; he will claim (and not without reason) that he has as much a claim to the nomination as McCain, and certainly more of a claim than anyone else in the Republican Party.
So, a brokered convention will still lead to one of only two people being the nominee: John McCain or Mike Huckabee. Either McCain will make a deal with Romney or Huck, or Huck will make a deal with Romney to freeze out McCain and take the nomination.
Therefore, the choice is not among McCain, Huckabee, and the Anonymous White Knight. It is between McCain and Hucakbee, period, and for reasons I have discusses again and again, the better choice is John McCain.
February 12, 2008 at 9:52 am
I concede your points…it is unlikely to achieve an outcome with which the Reagan coalition would be happy. I also agree that at this point, a brokered convention is unlikely (vs. when Mitt was still in).
As for me, I could not pull a lever for McCain in the primary–nor could I pull one at any time for Huckabee.
I pondered the pros and cons of asking for a Democrat ballot and voting for her (as I believe she is much more beatable in the General). But that might have caused the equivalent of a matter/anti-matter combination resulting in my complete destruction (and taking out Brock Road Elementary as well).
I ended up as I have in past years when I voted in primaries in Ohio and Virginia when the nomination seemed locked up…I sent a message to McCain and voted for Romney…
Perhaps McCain will realize (as it seems he may have, judging by his comments at CPAC) that he needs to court the conservatives much more strongly. I hope he becomes a candidate that Republicans can vote for because, as I said before: REPUBLICANS LOSE WHEN THEY DO NOT HAVE SOMETHING TO VOTE FOR!! We cannot trust that the incentive to vote against someone (such as the one who shall not be named) will be enough. It was not in ‘76 nor in ‘92, nor in ‘96.
February 12, 2008 at 12:07 pm
I agree with you on the perils of “defensive voting.” It never works for Republicans.
The things is, there are plenty of reasons for right-wingers to vote for John McCain in the general election. He needs to keep reminding them of that, of course.
February 12, 2008 at 6:11 pm
The understanding is and verified with an actual candidate last night in person, Romney’s Delegates are uncommitted. He controls those delegates.
Huckabee, Romney, Paul and Hunter agree, its not McCain at the top of the ticket, and if they got 1191 where does that put you?
February 12, 2008 at 9:58 pm
If they all hold out, that would mean Huckabee is the nominee (as he would have the most delegates of the bunch), which as I said before I do not prefer.