Here’s my guess on things for this weekend.
The Democrats: Honestly, I don’t see Obama losing a single state. Washington (today), Nebraska (today), and Maine (tomorrow) all have caucuses (caucii?), which are Obama’s specialty. The only primary is in Louisiana, and Obama’s strongest region is the South. So I’m calling it an Obama sweep, but because every Democratic race is proportional, Obama’s wins won’t mean much of an edge in delegates.
The Republicans: Louisiana’s primary only means something if McCain, Huckabee, or Paul wins a majority of the vote. The Louisiana GOP was heavily for Thompson, who endorsed McCain last night (Washington Post). So I’m guessing McCain breaks 50% in Louisiana. The Kansas caucus is another story, but McCain routinely beat everyone except Romney in the Western caucuses (caucii?) on Tuesday. With Romney out, I’m calling Kansas for McCain. The last GOP contest is Washington state, which has a history of bucking the trend. If Mike Huckabee is going to win anywhere, it’s here. I say he does: Huckabee wins Washington. That will be enough for him to stay in the race until Tuesday (which I expect to be a McCain sweep).
Of course, I got seven contests wrong in each party last Tuesday.
February 9, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Though it looks like it, ‘caucus’ is not Latin so ‘caucuses’ is a perfectly acceptable plural. The origin of ‘caucus’ is unknown though there has been some ingenious speculation on the subject. See OED 1933, s.v. ‘caucus’.
LTM
February 10, 2008 at 1:20 am
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