For the most part, the night was confirming my worst fears. Huckabee was doing surprisingly well in the South (he won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia), while Romney was scoring his expected western wins (Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and Utah). As the day wore on (before any of this started coming in), I realized that the one way John McCain could be denied the GOP nomination for President was with two viable opponents preventing him from winning a majority of delegates. Before midnight, it looked like that was exactly what was happening.
Then two calls were made that utterly changed the nature of the election.
McCain won Missouri, a state Huckabee had led for most of the night. It was a winner-take-all state (58 delegates). McCain needed that state in order to make himself the “big” winner tonight. McCain had also won Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Oklahoma earlier in the night, but Missouri was the “bellwether.” For McCain to lock it up ensured he was the clear favorite. Still, one could still say Romney had a decent night himself, until . . .
McCain won California. This came to me as a complete surprise. All of the momentum seemed to be going Romney’s way out there, which was why I picked him to win the Golden State. Suddenly, Romney went from the Western candidate to the dry-gulch and Massachusetts candidate. Now, he could still win a bunch of delegates in California (each congressional district is winner-take-all), but the 11 delegates that went to the state winner went to McCain, not Romney.
So, while I can’t be certain, odds are McCain will still win a majority of delegates at stake tonight. In fact, as we approach 1AM; the Fox News delegate count (still incomplete and on the fly) gives McCain a majority of all the delegates selected so far. That’s a very big deal. Moreover, again based on the Fox News numbers, Romney has less than halfof McCain’s total.
Bill Kristol is already saying Romney will be out this week. That would surprise me. I’m guessing Mitt will at least try for Virginia, where the highest ranking Republican (Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling) is in his column. However, after Virginia, he really has nowhere to go.
I finish this post with one ironic note: all of the furor for Mitt Romney among right-wingers appears to have made a difference in only one state: Missouri, where Romney took enough votes from Huckabee to hand 58 delegates to John McCain. I very much appreciate what talk radio et al did for my candidate.
DJ–
I have kept quiet and watched. Now I must say something. You do realize that it is not the conservative base which is choosing McCain, don’t you?
McCain has only won 3 of his 12 states by more than 50%(CT, NY, and NJ–all blue state BY FAR), as compared to Romney who has won 6 of his 11 states (WY, NV, ME, CO, MA, and UT–4 reds).
McCain has won only 6 of his 12 by 10 or more points (AZ, CT, DE, IL, NJ, and NY–again VERY blue except AZ, his home state), while Romney has won 10 out of his 11 states by 10 or more points (WY, NV, ME, AK, CO, MA, MN, MT, ND, UT–VERY red except MA (home state), ME, and MN).
Both have 23 1st or 2nd place finishes, but Romney was within 10 points in 7 of his 12 second-place states (IA, GA, WV, NH, FL, CA, and MO) and within 5 points in four (GA, WV, FL, MO). McCain was within 10 points in only 5 of his 11 second-place states (MI, MA, AL, GA, TN) and within five in three (Al, GA, TN).
At this point I am hoping to keep this RINO out of nomination–perhaps in a brokered convention, we can get a real conservative for our nominee. McCain certainly is not it. He is wrong on Guantanamo, wrong on “torture”, wrong on immigration (the largest threat to the US equal to our efforts overseas–I am NOT willing to concede this just because he is right on the WBK war), wrong on the border fence, wrong on amnesty, wrong on English as our official language, wrong on taxes, wrong on stem cell research, wrong on free speech, wrong on ANWR, wrong on energy policy, wrong on global warming, wrong on SC Justices (voted to confirm Ginsburg yet was a member of the Gang of 14), wrong on class warfare (“I voted against the tax cuts because of the disproportional amount that went to the wealthiest Americans”–the wealthy in this case are TAXPAYERS! Sound familiar–directly out of the Dem playbook), and wrong on supporting business (McCain has attacked pharmaceutical companies as “bad guys” who are using corrupt political influence to profit at the expense of the little guy–sound familiar? It’s Edwards-Clinton-Obama-speak).
DJ–won’t you join me in voting against this RINO in hopes that in a brokered convention we can support a real conservative (It probably wouldn’t take 103 ballots (1924 Dem convention)…but a currently unnamed candidate or even a former candidate (ie Hunter, Thompson) could be put into nomination from the floor in a brokered convention. It is time for the Reagan conservatives to rise up and take back the party).
PS. Call me…we’ll talk
If I get elected as a delegate from 1CD VA, then I’m all for a nomination from the floor. Fred D. Thompson comes to mind.
I’ll likely have a post on this later tonight or tomorrow, but to Mr. Beck (who is a friend, but I call both he and Mr. Bowden “Jim,” so it’s either formality or confusion), my short answer is, “no.”