It’s prediction time

Well, here we go.  Below are my predictions for the Republican primaries and caucuses (caucii?).  If I have time tonight (a very big “if”), I’ll get to the Democrats.

Twenty-one states are up for grabs, including half-a-dozen “winner take all” states.  I’m listing the top three finishers for each state (Winner take all states in bold and italics).  States are in order of the poll closing (I think).

• 7PM Georgia: McCain, Romney, Huckabee
• 7:30 PM West Virginia: McCain, Huckabee, Romney
• 8 PM Alabama: McCain, Huckabee, Romney
• 8 PM Connecticut: McCain, Romney, Huckabee
• 8 PM Delaware: McCain, Romney, Huckabee
• 8 PM Illinois: McCain, Romney, Huckabee
• 8 PM Massachusettes: Romney, McCain, Huckabee
• 8 PM Missouri: McCain, Romney, Huckabee
• 8 PM New Jersey: McCain, Romney, Huckabee
• 8 PM Oklahoma: McCain, Romney, Huckabee
• 8 PM Tennessee: McCain, Huckabee, Romney
• 8:30 PM Arkansas: Huckabee, McCain, Romney
• 9 PM Arizona: McCain, Romney, Huckabee
• 9 PM Colorado: Romney, McCain, Huckabee
• 9 PM Minnesota: McCain, Romney, Huckabee
• 9 PM New York: McCain, Romney, Huckabee
• 9 PM North Dakota: Romney, McCain, Huckabee
• 10 PM Montana: Romney, McCain, Huckabee
• 10 PM Utah: Romney, McCain, Huckabee
• 11 PM California: Romney, McCain, Huckabee (Yes, you read that right – Romney has some momentum out there, and California’s right wing is far more secular than in the rest of the country)
• 1 AM: Alaska: McCain, Paul, Romney

When it’s all said and done, I have McCain winning 14 states; Romney 6; and Huckabee only Arkansas.  The winner-take states will give McCain 312 delegates before we get to the proportional states; while I’m guessing Romney will sweep Utah’s 36 delegates. I’ll be very generous and give Huckabee Arkansas’ 34 delegates.

Based on the remaining 13 states (McCain’s 8 to Romney’s 5 – but with one of them being California), I’m splitting the remaining 696 delegates 40-40-20 (yes, that’s a SWAG).  I’ll give the odd delegate to McCain because he won more states; so it’s 279-278-139.

So my delegate projection is this: McCain 591; Romney 314, and Huckabee 173.  McCain will have a substantial delegate lead, but Romney will stick around due to his California win – which I’m also guessing will end Mike Huckabee’s campaign (his plan, weak as it was, appears to be to outlast Romney and consolidate the anti-McCain vote; Romney’s CA win will dash that strategy).

From there, it’s McCain vs. Romney; McCain remains the favorite, and there’s good reason to believe he’ll improve his position once Huckabee bows out.  We shall see.

Before I wrap this up, I advise the reader to pay particular attention to the southern states, where, for the most part, Romney is diverting votes from Huckabee.  While we won’t know for certain until tomorrow night, it may well be that all the bluster for Romney may have helped McCain in the south more than it hurt him in the Golden State.  Again, we’ll know for certain tomorrow.