How Michigan and Florida could change American politics – forever

Those aren’t my words (I now stick to calling her Senator Clinton); they are the words of Jim Geraghty of National Review.  Here’s his logic:

I can’t believe I’m writing this, but the Democratic nomination may come down to whether or not the delegates from Michigan and Florida are seated at the national convention.

According to CNN, right now Hillary’s ahead in the delegate count, 230 to to 152. The winner needs 2,025. But Hillary’s lead is almost entirely already-committed superdelegates, as the contests so far have been all near-ties in terms of delegates: Both she and Obama got 18 out of Iowa, CNN gives Obama one more delegate out of New Hampshire (a sort-of explanation here), they split Nevada 14 each, and Obama won South Carolina’s, 26 to 14.

 . . .

States on the Democrat side are proportional. And it’s easy to see a lot of 50some percent to 40some percent finishes, with John Edwards perhaps not hitting that 15 percent threshold to collect any delegates. But Edwards still has a decent pile (58 delegates) and should hit the 15 percent threshold in his at least his most friendly states (North Carolina).

. . .  

While it’s possible we could see a big sweep on Super Tuesday and beyond, it’s more likely that Hillary will win some, Obama will win some, and because of proportional delegate rules, neither one builds up a big lead in the delegate race.

If both Hillary and Obama are short of the majority necessary, there will be 156 delegates from Michigan and 210 delegates from Florida, most of which will be for Hillary, sitting on the sidelines. The Clintons will fight tooth and nail to get those into the count.

Under that scenario, the Obama camp and their supporters will be able to legitimately charge that yes, they did have the nomination stolen from them. The DNC ruled that those states forfeited their delegates by holding their primary before February 5. Obama wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan. He followed the rules; what he didn’t realize was that the Clintons would get the rules changed.

Suddenly, John Edwards’ limping campaign makes a lot more sense.  Unless I seriously miss my guess, the Michigan and Florida issues will be settled by the delegates on the floor of the convention.  If Obama or Clinton has a sizeable majority, the point is moot (and the delegates will be seated).

However, if there is nomajority on the floor, it’s all up in the air: Clinton’s delegates will likely vote to seat the delegations, while Obama’s delegates will oppose it.

Who decides?  John Edwards.

Republicans had something similar to this in 1952, about which I wrote earlier.  In that race, a similar argument over delegate seating determined whether or not Dwight Eisenhower had a majority on the first ballot.  Earl Warren (who ran as California’s “favorite son”) and Harold Stassen (who ran as an actual candidate) held the balance of power.  They supported seating Eisenhower’s delegates over that of his chief opponent (Robert Taft).  Ike went on to win the nomination and the election.  Perhaps by coincidence (how should I know?  I wasn’t aline in 1952), Warren became Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and Stassen became a cabinet-rank official in the Eisenhower Administration.

If these delegates in Michigan and Florida could give Clinton an otherwise unattainable majority (and that’s one big “if”).  It would be Edwards who delivers the goods.  He could ask for anything, including another try on the bottom of the ticket.  I’m guessing he’ll side with Obama, on account of Obama being in a better position to give him the VP nomination.

That said, if Edwards should side with Hillary in this scenario – look out.  I agree with Geraghty: “the Obama camp and their supporters will be able to legitimately charge that yes, they did have the nomination stolen from them.”  There will be massive outrage, especially if Clinton follows through and picks Edwards for the second slot.  She could just drop him after the vote is safely over and pick Obama instead – but even that would leave some sore feelings behind, and I’m guessing Obama wouldn’t go for it.

One other thing: the GOP convention will begin four days after the Democratic one ends.  So odds are any attempt at “healing” will still be in the early (and unproductive) stages when the GOP nominee (whoever it is) can shake things up even further by picking an African-American running mate (say, former Maryland Lt. Governor Michael Steele or former Congressman J.C. Watts).

That’s at least three titanic “ifs,” but should they all hold up, we could be headed for a realignment election of earth-shattering proportions.