How I think they all did

From best to worst:

Thompson: He came across as knowledgeable in every answer (and he was), yet had enough down-home lines to be personable.  While I didn’t keep count, I think he outdid Huckabee on humor.  He went after Huckabee from the get-go, and stayed on him all night.  Huck had to spend the entire debate on the defensive.

Huckabee: That said, Huck did pretty well on the defensive (as he usually does); a humorous deflection here, a challenge of Fred there, a bunch of attempts to rewrite his record.  In time, Huck will collapse under the weight of his tax-hiking record, but he proved once again that he is nimble enough to delay that moment.  Whether he can delay it past January 19 (election day in South Carolina) remains to be seen.

McCain: He acted like a front-runner (which he is, today at least).  Generally safe answers, he was actually at his best on immigration (“the American people didn’t trust the federal government to do its job”).  I don’t think he won anyone over tonight, but to some extent he doesn’t have to – unlike 2000 (when he also seized the lead in SC after his NH win), he still isn’t anyone’s target.  Then again, everyone else on that stage knows McCain is ripped by someone in talk radio every day . . .

Giuliani: Some folks might put Romney ahead of Rudy, I’m putting him over Mitt because he (Rudy) had the most detailed defense of his economic plan and supply-side economics in general.  Romney’s only delve into specifics was his mention of Pakistan’s military commander, unfortunately, he seemed to let on he’d be open to a military coup in Pakistan.

Romney: See above, and also, he needed to draw blood from McCain; I don’t think he did.  Romney has the money to go beyond New Hampshire, but he cannot be competitive if he loses Michigan.  He did nothing, in my view, to prevent a Michigan loss.

Paul: He obviously made his supporters very happy, but if he was looking to pick up any new voters, he failed miserably.  I had no idea how much he focused on foreign policy at the expense of domestic issues (where he and I agree on many, many more things).

Finally, my guy, Duncan Hunter, was not allowed to participate.  I don’t think it’s fair, but so long as it continues, Hunter is on borrowed time.  I’m guessing he’ll stick it out as far as South Carolina; beyond that, I’m doubtful.  Which means (if I’m right) I’ll have to find a new candidate when the VA primary rolls around.

What it will mean:For Michigan, not much; I suspect McCain will continue to build in support there, and I believe he will win (but I won’t predict until Monday, a lot can happen between now and then).  For South Carolina, Thompson may very well cut into Huckabee’s numbers in SC, which would help McCain at first.  Thompson has to pass Huckabee in order to survive, and I think he probably has to win.  Will he?  I’m not sure yet, but I’m more sure that Huckabee will not win; he’s fighting a two-front war (McCain and Thompson).  In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Huck is more focused on finishing ahead of Thompson than finishing ahead of McCain.

If what I think will happen actually happens (McCain wins both states), then the only viable candidates left will be McCain, Huckabee, and (if he wins Florida) Giuliani.  Romney needs to win Michigan (and I don’t think he will); Thompson needs to finish ahead of Huckabee in SC (that’s up in the air); and Giuliani has to win Florida (he is ahead there, for now).

FWIW, Huckabee is on Fox News right now; he is ripping Thompson and ignoring everyone else.  He knows he can end Fred’s campaign in SC.