Well, this time I was wrong on both counts- I had the wrong winner for the Democrats, and I transposed Huckabee and Paul for the Republicans. So of course, I’m perfectly qualified to opine about what will happen next.
For the Democrats, it seems fairly simple: Hillary is the favorite once more. Edwards will likely try to stay on until South Carolina; by then we’ll know if he’s taking voters away from Obama (as I presumed after Iowa) of Clinton (as it appears happened in New Hampshire). The minimal data we have suggests Edwards voters will split between Obama and Clinton, which again makes her the favorite.
As for the Republicans, it remains as unpredictable as ever. McCain has now joined Huckabee as the candidates who ticket to Super Duper Tuesday is punched. Michigan becomes a must-win for Romney; South Carolina still is for Thompson.
Giuliani’s situation is the most interesting. He still has to win Florida, but I can see two pre-FL scenarios in which that could happen.
The first is if neither Romney nor Thompson win their must-win states. Thompson will likely withdraw, while Romney will limp into single-digit territory. However, for limited government, economic conservatives, Giuliani may end up the best candidate out of what’s left (himself, Huckabee, and McCain). If Giuliani can rally the economic conservatives behind him (and he has the tax-cutting record in NYC for it), he could very well build on his Florida support enough to counteract the likely gains of the other two.
The more likely scenario for a Rudy win in FL is even Romney and Thompson remain viable (which they just might). So far, Giuliani’s been able to keep his lead in the wide-open field. He has a far better chance of keeping it if the field stays wide open.
What happens from then is anyone’s guess. You could see as many as five viable candidates after February 5, or as few as two. I don’t need to tell you how different each of those races could be.
