The Democratic aftermath from Iowa is, I believe, still quite simple: if Obama wins New Hampshire, he is the nominee; if Clinton or Edwards wins, the race is still a race. Therefore, I’ve been more focused on the Republicans, and this is what (I think) this the current state of affairs.
Each of the five major candidates (i.e, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and Thompson) have a must-win state in order to make it to Super Duper Tuesday (February 5). They are as follows:
Huckabee – Iowa (check – his ticket is punched)
McCain – New Hampshire
Romney – Michigan (although if he were to win New Hampshire, that would suffice)
Thompson – South Carolina
Giuliani – Florida
Now, even if Giuliani loses Florida, he’ll still get to February 5, but I don’t think he’ll do well enough to get past it. The others will, I suspect, drop out between now and then if they lose their must win state. I should also note that if each one does win their must-win state, the odds of a brokered convention increase dramatically. They key to that will be how many candidates come out of Super Duper Tuesday (if it’s only two, there’s no likelihood of a brokered convention), then how evenly spread the delegate counts are in the states after February 5.
Some other things that haven’t hit the radar, but might:
If Thompson and Giuliani are knocked out early, Ron Paul could win a few states.
If Thompson, Giuliani, and Romney are knocked out early, Ron Paul will win a few states.
This could be the first time since 1976 that candidates for nomination announce running mates (it could become a vital part of winning over delegates from outside the candidate’s natural supporters).
Outside of that, it’s just really, really fluid right now. I’m just glad my guy won a delegate in Wyoming today (NRO – The Corner).
