I get this strange feeling that three months from now, Barack Obama will wish John Edwards didn’t beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa.
Of course, I could be wrong.
In some respects, the Democrats are easier to analyze than the Republicans (and this should certainly be true after New Hampshire). So here we go (as with my Republican analysis, this could all be wrong).
This is a three person race (for now): It’s no longer Clinton vs. the anti-Clinton. It is now Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. The fact that it’s three candidates, rather than two, can help Clinton in New Hampshire, but only if Edwards takes more votes away from Obama than he will from Clinton (and that doesn’t take into account the voters Obama will take away from Clinton in New Hampshire).
New Hampshire can decide this race: If Clinton can win up there and Edwards remains viable (the latter is a huge ”if”), then Clinton can stil comeback to win the nomination. The “model” - if you will – is George Bush the Elder in 1988. Bush finished a shocking third in Iowa, yet managed to win in New Hampshire and benefit from Jack Kemp and Pat Robertson staying in the race long enough to keep the anti-Bush vote from coalescing around Bob Doe (or anyone else). That’s what Clinton needs; she needs to be able to play off both Edwards and Obama.
If Obama wins New Hampshire, he is the nominee: There is no way Clinton can survive that, in my view. If she can’t beat Obama with Edwards bleeding votes away from him, she can’t beat him one on one, period.
If Edwards wins New Hampshire: I have no idea what will happen; any of these three could be nominated.
If Clinton wins New Hampshire (with Obama in second), it’s a two person-race: If Edwards gets past Obama, he’s still around, and if Clinton beats noth as well, she has the magic scenario she needs. A Clinton-Obama finish in New Hampshire makes it a two-person race, and I can’t predict the winner of that one.
Oh, and one more thing about the Republicans . . .
“Beating Hillary” is no longer a GOP concern (until Wednesday): For at least a week, there will be either (a) a huge panic in the GOP about Obama (more on him later), or (b) a desire to say the heck with it, let’s just go with the person we like the most. The trouble with the latter is that no one (besides Huckabee perhaps) excites anyone in the GOP primary electorate. If the former takes hold, it will be yet another boost for John McCain (Giuliani’s electability argument is geard toward Clinton, not Obama).
That’s all I got for now.
